CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 4 · Mid-American · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Mid-American · Week 4 · 8 games
Central Michigan @ MiamiMiami 100%
Model
Miami -40.1 · mkt Miami —
proj Central Michigan 8.1 · Miami 48.3
Total
proj 56.4
Massachusetts @ Sacramento StateSacramento State 93%
Model
Sacramento State -21.0 · mkt Sacramento State —
proj Massachusetts 17.8 · Sacramento State 38.8
Total
proj 56.5
San Diego State @ ToledoToledo 69%
Model
Toledo -7.1 · mkt Toledo —
proj San Diego State 21.6 · Toledo 28.7
Total
proj 50.3
Ball State @ Kent StateKent State 64%
Model
Kent State -5.0 · mkt Kent State —
proj Ball State 25.9 · Kent State 31.0
Total
proj 56.9
Boise State @ Western MichiganWestern Michigan 58%
Model
Western Michigan -2.8 · mkt Western Michigan —
proj Boise State 21.4 · Western Michigan 24.1
Total
proj 45.5
UConn @ Miami (OH)UConn 64%
Model
UConn -5.2 · mkt UConn —
proj UConn 28.6 · Miami (OH) 23.4
Total
proj 52.0
South Florida @ Bowling GreenSouth Florida 93%
Model
South Florida -21.2 · mkt South Florida —
proj South Florida 37.2 · Bowling Green 16.1
Total
proj 53.3
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.