CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 6 · Mid-American · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Mid-American · Week 6 · 7 games
Ball State @ NorthwesternNorthwestern 95%
Model
Northwestern -23.9 · mkt Northwestern —
proj Ball State 13.8 · Northwestern 37.7
Total
proj 51.5
Kent State @ Western MichiganWestern Michigan 92%
Model
Western Michigan -19.7 · mkt Western Michigan —
proj Kent State 18.1 · Western Michigan 37.8
Total
proj 55.8
Buffalo @ ToledoToledo 91%
Model
Toledo -18.7 · mkt Toledo —
proj Buffalo 17.9 · Toledo 36.5
Total
proj 54.4
Sacramento State @ Bowling GreenBowling Green 85%
Model
Bowling Green -14.8 · mkt Bowling Green —
proj Sacramento State 20.6 · Bowling Green 35.5
Total
proj 56.1
Central Michigan @ OhioOhio 74%
Model
Ohio -9.3 · mkt Ohio —
proj Central Michigan 25.0 · Ohio 34.3
Total
proj 59.3
Eastern Michigan @ AkronAkron 57%
Model
Akron -2.5 · mkt Akron —
proj Eastern Michigan 27.0 · Akron 29.5
Total
proj 56.4
Miami (OH) @ MassachusettsMiami (OH) 95%
Model
Miami (OH) -23.7 · mkt Miami (OH) —
proj Miami (OH) 41.7 · Massachusetts 18.1
Total
proj 59.8
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.