CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 7 · Mid-American · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Mid-American · Week 7 · 7 games
Kent State @ South FloridaSouth Florida 99%
Model
South Florida -31.1 · mkt South Florida —
proj Kent State 13.1 · South Florida 44.2
Total
proj 57.3
Massachusetts @ BuffaloBuffalo 88%
Model
Buffalo -16.5 · mkt Buffalo —
proj Massachusetts 20.5 · Buffalo 37.0
Total
proj 57.5
Akron @ Miami (OH)Miami (OH) 82%
Model
Miami (OH) -13.0 · mkt Miami (OH) —
proj Akron 19.2 · Miami (OH) 32.3
Total
proj 51.5
Ball State @ Bowling GreenBowling Green 73%
Model
Bowling Green -8.8 · mkt Bowling Green —
proj Ball State 21.4 · Bowling Green 30.1
Total
proj 51.5
Ohio @ Sacramento StateSacramento State 66%
Model
Sacramento State -5.8 · mkt Sacramento State —
proj Ohio 24.2 · Sacramento State 30.1
Total
proj 54.3
Western Michigan @ Central MichiganWestern Michigan 51%
Model
Western Michigan -0.3 · mkt Western Michigan —
proj Western Michigan 29.5 · Central Michigan 29.2
Total
proj 58.8
Toledo @ Eastern MichiganToledo 74%
Model
Toledo -9.0 · mkt Toledo —
proj Toledo 35.4 · Eastern Michigan 26.4
Total
proj 61.8
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.