CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 8 · Mid-American · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Mid-American · Week 8 · 7 games
Massachusetts @ UConnUConn 97%
Model
UConn -26.0 · mkt UConn —
proj Massachusetts 15.7 · UConn 41.7
Total
proj 57.3
Eastern Michigan @ OhioOhio 77%
Model
Ohio -10.7 · mkt Ohio —
proj Eastern Michigan 23.0 · Ohio 33.7
Total
proj 56.8
Sacramento State @ Ball StateBall State 77%
Model
Ball State -10.7 · mkt Ball State —
proj Sacramento State 22.3 · Ball State 32.9
Total
proj 55.2
Bowling Green @ BuffaloBuffalo 67%
Model
Buffalo -6.3 · mkt Buffalo —
proj Bowling Green 24.8 · Buffalo 31.1
Total
proj 55.9
Western Michigan @ ToledoToledo 66%
Model
Toledo -5.9 · mkt Toledo —
proj Western Michigan 22.3 · Toledo 28.2
Total
proj 50.5
Akron @ Kent StateKent State 50%
Model
Kent State -0.1 · mkt Kent State —
proj Akron 26.5 · Kent State 26.6
Total
proj 53.1
Miami (OH) @ Central MichiganMiami (OH) 56%
Model
Miami (OH) -2.0 · mkt Miami (OH) —
proj Miami (OH) 29.9 · Central Michigan 27.9
Total
proj 57.8
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.