CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 9 · Mid-American · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge

All Big Ten SEC Big 12 ACC FBS Independents Pac-12 American Athletic Mountain West Sun Belt Mid-American Conference USA

Season2026 2025 2024

Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Full Slate — Mid-American · Week 9 · 2 games

Kent State @ Sacramento StateSacramento State 85%

Model

Sacramento State -15.0 · mkt Sacramento State —

proj Kent State 20.5 · Sacramento State 35.5

Total

proj 56.0

Bowling Green @ Western MichiganWestern Michigan 81%

Model

Western Michigan -12.4 · mkt Western Michigan —

proj Bowling Green 19.5 · Western Michigan 31.9

Total

proj 51.4

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.