CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 1 · Mountain West · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Jacksonville State @ North Dakota State11.3 pt gap
Model vs mktNorth Dakota State -20.6 · mkt North Dakota State -9.3
LeanNorth Dakota State -9.3
Best priceNorth Dakota State -7.5 -110best of 7
WinNorth Dakota State 93%
Northern Illinois @ Iowa9.3 pt gap
Model vs mktIowa -39.3 · mkt Iowa -30.0
LeanIowa -30.0
Best priceIowa -30.5 -105best of 7
WinIowa 100%
Hawai'i @ Stanford5.7 pt gap
Model vs mktHawai'i -2.4 · mkt Hawai'i +3.3
LeanHawai'i +3.3
Best priceHawai'i +4.5 -110best of 7
WinHawai'i 57%
Western Kentucky @ Nevada3.9 pt gap
Model vs mktWestern Kentucky -7.4 · mkt Western Kentucky -3.5
LeanWestern Kentucky -3.5
Best priceWestern Kentucky -2.5 -122best of 6
WinWestern Kentucky 70%
Central Michigan @ New Mexico3.1 pt gap
Model vs mktNew Mexico -9.4 · mkt New Mexico -12.5
LeanCentral Michigan +12.5
Best priceCentral Michigan +12.5 -112best of 5
WinNew Mexico 75%
UTEP @ Oklahoma2.8 pt gap
Model vs mktOklahoma -37.7 · mkt Oklahoma -40.5
LeanUTEP +40.5
Best priceUTEP +40.5 -108best of 7
WinOklahoma 100%
UNLV @ Hawai'i2.1 pt gap
Model vs mktUNLV -3.6 · mkt UNLV -1.5
LeanUNLV -1.5
Best priceUNLV -1 -101best of 6
WinUNLV 60%
Memphis @ UNLV1.3 pt gap
Model vs mktUNLV -1.7 · mkt UNLV -3.0
LeanMemphis +3.0
Best priceMemphis +4.5 -105best of 8
WinUNLV 55%
Full Slate — Mountain West · Week 1 · 11 games
Jacksonville State @ North Dakota StateNorth Dakota State 93%
Model
North Dakota State -20.6 · mkt North Dakota State -9.3
proj Jacksonville State 18.0 · North Dakota State 38.6
leans North Dakota State -9.3
◆ Mid 1
North Dakota State -7.5 -110FanDuel
Jacksonville State +8.5 -108DraftKings
Northern Illinois @ IowaIowa 100%
Model
Iowa -39.3 · mkt Iowa -30.0
proj Northern Illinois 7.7 · Iowa 47.0
leans Iowa -30.0
◆ Mid 0
Iowa -30.5 -105DraftKings
Northern Illinois +30.5 -115DraftKings
Hawai'i @ StanfordHawai'i 57%
Model
Hawai'i -2.4 · mkt Hawai'i +3.3
proj Hawai'i 28.2 · Stanford 25.8
leans Hawai'i +3.3
◆ Mid 1
Stanford -3.5 -108DraftKings
Hawai'i +4.5 -110FanDuel
Western Kentucky @ NevadaWestern Kentucky 70%
Model
Western Kentucky -7.4 · mkt Western Kentucky -3.5
proj Western Kentucky 31.4 · Nevada 24.0
leans Western Kentucky -3.5
◆ Mid 1
Nevada +3.5 -111LowVig
Western Kentucky -2.5 -122FanDuel
Central Michigan @ New MexicoNew Mexico 75%
Model
New Mexico -9.4 · mkt New Mexico -12.5
proj Central Michigan 23.9 · New Mexico 33.3
leans Central Michigan +12.5
◆ Mid 0
New Mexico -12.5 -108DraftKings
Central Michigan +12.5 -112DraftKings
UTEP @ OklahomaOklahoma 100%
Model
Oklahoma -37.7 · mkt Oklahoma -40.5
proj UTEP 8.6 · Oklahoma 46.2
leans UTEP +40.5
◆ Mid 1
Oklahoma -39.5 -115FanDuel
UTEP +40.5 -108DraftKings
UNLV @ Hawai'iUNLV 60%
Model
UNLV -3.6 · mkt UNLV -1.5
proj UNLV 30.9 · Hawai'i 27.3
leans UNLV -1.5
◆ Mid 1.5
Hawai'i +2.5 -110FanDuel
UNLV -1 -101LowVig
Memphis @ UNLVUNLV 55%
Model
UNLV -1.7 · mkt UNLV -3.0
proj Memphis 26.1 · UNLV 27.8
leans Memphis +3.0
◆ Mid 1
UNLV -3.5 -105DraftKings
Memphis +4.5 -105FanDuel
San José State @ Eastern MichiganEastern Michigan 58%
Model
Eastern Michigan -3.0 · mkt Eastern Michigan -3.8
proj San José State 25.7 · Eastern Michigan 28.7
leans San José State +3.8
◆ Mid 1
Eastern Michigan -3.5 -106FanDuel
San José State +4.5 -106LowVig
Wyoming @ Colorado StateColorado State 60%
Model
Colorado State -3.6 · mkt Colorado State -4.0
proj Wyoming 25.7 · Colorado State 29.3
leans Wyoming +4.0
◆ Mid 0.5
Colorado State -3.5 -115FanDuel
Wyoming +4 -115DraftKings
San José State @ USCUSC 99%
Model
USC -35.6 · mkt USC -35.5
proj San José State 8.8 · USC 44.4
leans USC -35.5
◆ Mid 0
USC -35.5 -112DraftKings
San José State +35.5 -108DraftKings
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.