CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 12 · Mountain West · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Full Slate — Mountain West · Week 12 · 5 games
Northern Illinois @ North Dakota StateNorth Dakota State 93%
Model
North Dakota State -21.5 · mkt North Dakota State —
proj Northern Illinois 17.2 · North Dakota State 38.7
Total
proj 55.8
UTEP @ Air ForceAir Force 93%
Model
Air Force -21.4 · mkt Air Force —
proj UTEP 18.1 · Air Force 39.6
Total
proj 57.7
New Mexico @ WyomingNew Mexico 57%
Model
New Mexico -2.7 · mkt New Mexico —
proj New Mexico 29.7 · Wyoming 27.0
Total
proj 56.7
Hawai'i @ NevadaHawai'i 70%
Model
Hawai'i -7.4 · mkt Hawai'i —
proj Hawai'i 30.5 · Nevada 23.1
Total
proj 53.6
UNLV @ San José StateUNLV 89%
Model
UNLV -17.4 · mkt UNLV —
proj UNLV 38.3 · San José State 20.8
Total
proj 59.1
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.