CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 2 · Mountain West · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge

All Big Ten SEC Big 12 ACC FBS Independents Pac-12 American Athletic Mountain West Sun Belt Mid-American Conference USA

Season2026 2025 2024

Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Full Slate — Mountain West · Week 2 · 3 games

New Mexico State @ Hawai'iHawai'i 80%

Model

Hawai'i -11.9 · mkt Hawai'i —

proj New Mexico State 20.1 · Hawai'i 32.0

Total

proj 52.1

North Dakota State @ Air ForceAir Force 71%

Model

Air Force -7.9 · mkt Air Force —

proj North Dakota State 23.5 · Air Force 31.3

Total

proj 54.8

UNLV @ North TexasNorth Texas 70%

Model

North Texas -7.5 · mkt North Texas —

proj UNLV 22.7 · North Texas 30.2

Total

proj 52.9

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.