CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 5 · Mountain West · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Full Slate — Mountain West · Week 5 · 5 games
Wyoming @ North Dakota StateNorth Dakota State 93%
Model
North Dakota State -21.0 · mkt North Dakota State —
proj Wyoming 17.8 · North Dakota State 38.8
Total
proj 56.6
UTEP @ New MexicoNew Mexico 82%
Model
New Mexico -13.1 · mkt New Mexico —
proj UTEP 20.7 · New Mexico 33.8
Total
proj 54.5
San José State @ Hawai'iHawai'i 82%
Model
Hawai'i -12.9 · mkt Hawai'i —
proj San José State 22.0 · Hawai'i 34.9
Total
proj 56.8
Navy @ Air ForceAir Force 51%
Model
Air Force -0.2 · mkt Air Force —
proj Navy 29.4 · Air Force 29.7
Total
proj 59.1
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.