CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 6 · Mountain West · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Full Slate — Mountain West · Week 6 · 5 games
Hawai'i @ Arizona StateArizona State 82%
Model
Arizona State -13.2 · mkt Arizona State —
proj Hawai'i 19.8 · Arizona State 33.1
Total
proj 52.9
North Dakota State @ UNLVUNLV 78%
Model
UNLV -11.1 · mkt UNLV —
proj North Dakota State 22.4 · UNLV 33.5
Total
proj 55.8
Wyoming @ San José StateSan José State 56%
Model
San José State -2.2 · mkt San José State —
proj Wyoming 26.5 · San José State 28.7
Total
proj 55.2
Air Force @ Northern IllinoisAir Force 77%
Model
Air Force -10.6 · mkt Air Force —
proj Air Force 28.5 · Northern Illinois 17.8
Total
proj 46.3
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.