CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 7 · Mountain West · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Full Slate — Mountain West · Week 7 · 5 games
Nevada @ North Dakota StateNorth Dakota State 93%
Model
North Dakota State -21.0 · mkt North Dakota State —
proj Nevada 17.8 · North Dakota State 38.8
Total
proj 56.6
Northern Illinois @ WyomingWyoming 69%
Model
Wyoming -7.1 · mkt Wyoming —
proj Northern Illinois 23.7 · Wyoming 30.8
Total
proj 54.5
New Mexico @ Hawai'iHawai'i 65%
Model
Hawai'i -5.5 · mkt Hawai'i —
proj New Mexico 23.8 · Hawai'i 29.2
Total
proj 53.0
UNLV @ Air ForceAir Force 61%
Model
Air Force -4.1 · mkt Air Force —
proj UNLV 29.4 · Air Force 33.5
Total
proj 62.9
San José State @ UTEPSan José State 58%
Model
San José State -3.0 · mkt San José State —
proj San José State 26.5 · UTEP 23.5
Total
proj 50.0
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.