CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 9 · Mountain West · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Full Slate — Mountain West · Week 9 · 5 games
UTEP @ North Dakota StateNorth Dakota State 93%
Model
North Dakota State -21.5 · mkt North Dakota State —
proj UTEP 17.2 · North Dakota State 38.7
Total
proj 55.8
Northern Illinois @ UNLVUNLV 93%
Model
UNLV -21.1 · mkt UNLV —
proj Northern Illinois 19.5 · UNLV 40.7
Total
proj 60.2
UConn @ Air ForceAir Force 58%
Model
Air Force -2.8 · mkt Air Force —
proj UConn 29.8 · Air Force 32.6
Total
proj 62.4
New Mexico @ San José StateNew Mexico 64%
Model
New Mexico -5.2 · mkt New Mexico —
proj New Mexico 30.1 · San José State 25.0
Total
proj 55.1
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.