CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 1 · Pac-12 · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Washington State @ Washington7.7 pt gap
Model vs mktWashington -13.8 · mkt Washington -21.5
LeanWashington State +21.5
Best priceWashington State +21.5 -112best of 8
WinWashington 83%
Texas State @ Texas6.7 pt gap
Model vs mktTexas -23.8 · mkt Texas -30.5
LeanTexas State +30.5
Best priceTexas State +31.5 -115best of 7
WinTexas 95%
Oregon State @ Houston4.3 pt gap
Model vs mktHouston -14.2 · mkt Houston -18.5
LeanOregon State +18.5
Best priceOregon State +18.5 -110best of 7
WinHouston 84%
Fresno State @ USC1.2 pt gap
Model vs mktUSC -22.3 · mkt USC -23.5
LeanFresno State +23.5
Best priceFresno State +23.5 -110best of 6
WinUSC 94%
Boise State @ Oregon1.1 pt gap
Model vs mktOregon -25.6 · mkt Oregon -24.5
LeanOregon -24.5
Best priceOregon -24.5 -115best of 8
WinOregon 96%
Wyoming @ Colorado State0.4 pt gap
Model vs mktColorado State -3.6 · mkt Colorado State -4.0
LeanWyoming +4.0
Best priceWyoming +4 -115best of 7
WinColorado State 60%
Full Slate — Pac-12 · Week 1 · 6 games
Washington State @ WashingtonWashington 83%
Model
Washington -13.8 · mkt Washington -21.5
proj Washington State 19.2 · Washington 32.9
leans Washington State +21.5
◆ Mid 0
Washington -21.5 -108DraftKings
Washington State +21.5 -112DraftKings
Texas State @ TexasTexas 95%
Model
Texas -23.8 · mkt Texas -30.5
proj Texas State 16.0 · Texas 39.9
leans Texas State +30.5
◆ Mid 1
Texas -30.5 -110DraftKings
Texas State +31.5 -115FanDuel
Oregon State @ HoustonHouston 84%
Model
Houston -14.2 · mkt Houston -18.5
proj Oregon State 19.7 · Houston 33.8
leans Oregon State +18.5
◆ Mid 0
Houston -18.5 -110DraftKings
Oregon State +18.5 -110DraftKings
Fresno State @ USCUSC 94%
Model
USC -22.3 · mkt USC -23.5
proj Fresno State 17.4 · USC 39.7
leans Fresno State +23.5
◆ Mid 1
USC -22.5 -106LowVig
Fresno State +23.5 -110DraftKings
Boise State @ OregonOregon 96%
Model
Oregon -25.6 · mkt Oregon -24.5
proj Boise State 12.9 · Oregon 38.5
leans Oregon -24.5
◆ Mid 0.5
Oregon -24.5 -115DraftKings
Boise State +25 -110BetRivers
Wyoming @ Colorado StateColorado State 60%
Model
Colorado State -3.6 · mkt Colorado State -4.0
proj Wyoming 25.7 · Colorado State 29.3
leans Wyoming +4.0
◆ Mid 0.5
Colorado State -3.5 -115FanDuel
Wyoming +4 -115DraftKings
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.