CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 11 · Pac-12 · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Pac-12 · Week 11 · 4 games
Colorado State @ Washington StateWashington State 87%
Model
Washington State -15.9 · mkt Washington State —
proj Colorado State 19.1 · Washington State 35.0
Total
proj 54.1
Utah State @ San Diego StateSan Diego State 75%
Model
San Diego State -9.8 · mkt San Diego State —
proj Utah State 21.3 · San Diego State 31.1
Total
proj 52.5
Oregon State @ Boise StateBoise State 75%
Model
Boise State -9.4 · mkt Boise State —
proj Oregon State 23.4 · Boise State 32.8
Total
proj 56.2
Fresno State @ Texas StateTexas State 62%
Model
Texas State -4.4 · mkt Texas State —
proj Fresno State 21.5 · Texas State 26.0
Total
proj 47.5
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.