CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 12 · Pac-12 · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Full Slate — Pac-12 · Week 12 · 4 games
Colorado State @ Fresno StateFresno State 80%
Model
Fresno State -12.0 · mkt Fresno State —
proj Colorado State 21.6 · Fresno State 33.6
Total
proj 55.3
San Diego State @ Boise StateBoise State 58%
Model
Boise State -2.9 · mkt Boise State —
proj San Diego State 25.8 · Boise State 28.7
Total
proj 54.5
Washington State @ Texas StateWashington State 51%
Model
Washington State -0.3 · mkt Washington State —
proj Washington State 22.5 · Texas State 22.1
Total
proj 44.6
Utah State @ Oregon StateUtah State 55%
Model
Utah State -1.8 · mkt Utah State —
proj Utah State 26.5 · Oregon State 24.7
Total
proj 51.2
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.