CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 3 · Pac-12 · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Pac-12 · Week 3 · 5 games
James Madison @ San Diego StateJames Madison 56%
Model
James Madison -2.1 · mkt James Madison —
proj James Madison 27.0 · San Diego State 25.0
Total
proj 52.0
North Texas @ Texas StateNorth Texas 63%
Model
North Texas -4.8 · mkt North Texas —
proj North Texas 28.9 · Texas State 24.1
Total
proj 52.9
Fresno State @ San José StateFresno State 74%
Model
Fresno State -8.9 · mkt Fresno State —
proj Fresno State 34.2 · San José State 25.3
Total
proj 59.6
BYU @ Colorado StateBYU 91%
Model
BYU -18.8 · mkt BYU —
proj BYU 40.1 · Colorado State 21.3
Total
proj 61.4
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.