CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 4 · Pac-12 · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Pac-12 · Week 4 · 7 games
Colorado State @ UTSAUTSA 88%
Model
UTSA -16.7 · mkt UTSA —
proj Colorado State 17.6 · UTSA 34.2
Total
proj 51.8
Rice @ Fresno StateFresno State 83%
Model
Fresno State -13.5 · mkt Fresno State —
proj Rice 20.9 · Fresno State 34.4
Total
proj 55.3
San Diego State @ ToledoToledo 69%
Model
Toledo -7.1 · mkt Toledo —
proj San Diego State 21.6 · Toledo 28.7
Total
proj 50.3
Troy @ Utah StateUtah State 65%
Model
Utah State -5.5 · mkt Utah State —
proj Troy 26.5 · Utah State 32.0
Total
proj 58.5
Boise State @ Western MichiganWestern Michigan 58%
Model
Western Michigan -2.8 · mkt Western Michigan —
proj Boise State 21.4 · Western Michigan 24.1
Total
proj 45.5
Arizona @ Washington StateArizona 53%
Model
Arizona -1.0 · mkt Arizona —
proj Arizona 26.8 · Washington State 25.8
Total
proj 52.5
Oregon State @ UTEPOregon State 60%
Model
Oregon State -3.6 · mkt Oregon State —
proj Oregon State 31.3 · UTEP 27.7
Total
proj 59.0
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.