CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 5 · Pac-12 · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Full Slate — Pac-12 · Week 5 · 4 games
Utah State @ Boise StateBoise State 84%
Model
Boise State -14.3 · mkt Boise State —
proj Utah State 18.6 · Boise State 32.8
Total
proj 51.4
Fresno State @ Washington StateWashington State 66%
Model
Washington State -6.0 · mkt Washington State —
proj Fresno State 24.8 · Washington State 30.7
Total
proj 55.5
Texas State @ San Diego StateSan Diego State 65%
Model
San Diego State -5.6 · mkt San Diego State —
proj Texas State 22.4 · San Diego State 28.0
Total
proj 50.5
Oregon State @ Colorado StateColorado State 59%
Model
Colorado State -3.4 · mkt Colorado State —
proj Oregon State 24.9 · Colorado State 28.2
Total
proj 53.1
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.