CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 6 · Pac-12 · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Pac-12 · Week 6 · 3 games
Boise State @ Fresno StateFresno State 52%
Model
Fresno State -0.7 · mkt Fresno State —
proj Boise State 25.2 · Fresno State 25.9
Total
proj 51.0
Washington State @ Utah StateWashington State 70%
Model
Washington State -7.6 · mkt Washington State —
proj Washington State 30.6 · Utah State 23.0
Total
proj 53.5
San Diego State @ Oregon StateSan Diego State 82%
Model
San Diego State -12.8 · mkt San Diego State —
proj San Diego State 34.2 · Oregon State 21.4
Total
proj 55.6
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.