CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 9 · Pac-12 · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Pac-12 · Week 9 · 4 games
Colorado State @ Utah StateUtah State 77%
Model
Utah State -10.5 · mkt Utah State —
proj Colorado State 22.3 · Utah State 32.8
Total
proj 55.2
Oregon State @ Fresno StateFresno State 75%
Model
Fresno State -9.6 · mkt Fresno State —
proj Oregon State 21.8 · Fresno State 31.5
Total
proj 53.3
Washington State @ San Diego StateSan Diego State 64%
Model
San Diego State -5.0 · mkt San Diego State —
proj Washington State 23.9 · San Diego State 28.9
Total
proj 52.7
Texas State @ Boise StateBoise State 64%
Model
Boise State -5.0 · mkt Boise State —
proj Texas State 24.4 · Boise State 29.4
Total
proj 53.7
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.