CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 2 · SEC · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 2 backtest · SEC · 10 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
8–280%
ATS vs close
5–550%
Model margin MAE
16.0
Market margin MAE
13.8
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Buffalo @ MissouriFinal 0–38
Model
pred Missouri 42.2 · actual Missouri 38
winner Missouri ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Missouri -34.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.2 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
South Florida @ AlabamaFinal 16–42
Model
pred Alabama 30.5 · actual Alabama 26
winner Alabama ✓
ATS vs close
leaned South Florida +31.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.5 · mkt 5.0 · closer
Middle Tennessee @ Ole MissFinal 3–52
Model
pred Ole Miss 24.6 · actual Ole Miss 49
winner Ole Miss ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Middle Tennessee +42.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.4 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
Houston @ OklahomaFinal 12–16
Model
pred Oklahoma 20.7 · actual Oklahoma 4
winner Oklahoma ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Houston +27.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 16.7 · mkt 23.5 · closer
South Carolina @ KentuckyFinal 31–6
Model
pred Kentucky 14.2 · actual South Carolina 25
winner Kentucky ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Kentucky -9.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 39.2 · mkt 34.5 · mkt closer
California @ AuburnFinal 21–14
Model
pred Auburn 9.1 · actual California 7
winner Auburn ✗
ATS vs close
leaned California +12.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 16.1 · mkt 19.5 · closer
Arkansas @ Oklahoma StateFinal 31–39
Model
pred Oklahoma State 8.9 · actual Oklahoma State 8
winner Oklahoma State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Arkansas +10.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.9 · mkt 2.0 · closer
Mississippi State @ Arizona StateFinal 23–30
Model
pred Arizona State 5.2 · actual Arizona State 7
winner Arizona State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Mississippi State +6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 1.8 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Texas @ MichiganFinal 31–12
Model
pred Texas 1.2 · actual Texas 19
winner Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Michigan +6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.8 · mkt 12.5 · mkt closer
Tennessee @ NC StateFinal 51–10
Model
pred Tennessee 6.5 · actual Tennessee 41
winner Tennessee ✓
ATS vs close
leaned NC State +10.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 34.5 · mkt 31.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.