CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 2 · SEC · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Ohio State @ Texas6.8 pt gap
Model vs mktOhio State -5.3 · mkt Ohio State +1.5
LeanOhio State +1.5
Best priceOhio State +1.5 -108best of 4
WinOhio State 65%
Oklahoma @ Michigan5.5 pt gap
Model vs mktOklahoma -3.0 · mkt Oklahoma +2.5
LeanOklahoma +2.5
Best priceOklahoma +2.5 -110best of 4
WinOklahoma 58%
Missouri @ Kansas4.9 pt gap
Model vs mktMissouri -1.8 · mkt Missouri ~-6.7
LeanKansas +6.7
Best priceKansas +7 -110best of 2
WinMissouri 55%
Arizona State @ Texas A&M2.6 pt gap
Model vs mktTexas A&M -17.1 · mkt Texas A&M ~-14.5
LeanTexas A&M -14.5
Best priceTexas A&M -14.5 -110best of 1
WinTexas A&M 89%
Arkansas @ Utah2.0 pt gap
Model vs mktUtah -12.0 · mkt Utah ~-10.0
LeanUtah -10.0
Best priceUtah -10 -110best of 1
WinUtah 80%
Full Slate — SEC · Week 2 · 13 games
Ohio State @ TexasOhio State 65%
Model
Ohio State -5.3 · mkt Ohio State +1.5
proj Ohio State 28.5 · Texas 23.1
leans Ohio State +1.5
◆ Mid 1.5
Texas 0 -110DraftKings
Ohio State +1.5 -108FanDuel
Oklahoma @ MichiganOklahoma 58%
Model
Oklahoma -3.0 · mkt Oklahoma +2.5
proj Oklahoma 26.0 · Michigan 23.0
leans Oklahoma +2.5
◆ Mid 0
Michigan -2.5 -110DraftKings
Oklahoma +2.5 -110DraftKings
Missouri @ KansasMissouri 55%
Model
Missouri -1.8 · mkt Missouri ~-6.7
proj Missouri 31.3 · Kansas 29.5
leans Kansas +6.7
◆ Mid 0.5
Kansas +7 -110DraftKings
Missouri -6.5 -112FanDuel
Arizona State @ Texas A&MTexas A&M 89%
Model
Texas A&M -17.1 · mkt Texas A&M ~-14.5
proj Arizona State 17.8 · Texas A&M 34.8
leans Texas A&M -14.5
◆ Mid 0
Texas A&M -14.5 -110DraftKings
Arizona State +14.5 -110DraftKings
Arkansas @ UtahUtah 80%
Model
Utah -12.0 · mkt Utah ~-10.0
proj Arkansas 24.6 · Utah 36.6
leans Utah -10.0
◆ Mid 0
Utah -10 -110DraftKings
Arkansas +10 -110DraftKings
Western Kentucky @ GeorgiaGeorgia 100%
Model
Georgia -41.7 · mkt Georgia —
proj Western Kentucky 5.7 · Georgia 47.4
Total
proj 53.1
Delaware @ VanderbiltVanderbilt 100%
Model
Vanderbilt -41.2 · mkt Vanderbilt —
proj Delaware 7.0 · Vanderbilt 48.1
Total
proj 55.1
Charlotte @ Ole MissOle Miss 100%
Model
Ole Miss -38.9 · mkt Ole Miss —
proj Charlotte 10.6 · Ole Miss 49.5
Total
proj 60.1
Southern Miss @ AuburnAuburn 97%
Model
Auburn -27.7 · mkt Auburn —
proj Southern Miss 13.3 · Auburn 41.0
Total
proj 54.2
Louisiana Tech @ LSULSU 95%
Model
LSU -23.7 · mkt LSU —
proj Louisiana Tech 14.6 · LSU 38.3
Total
proj 53.0
Mississippi State @ MinnesotaMississippi State 52%
Model
Mississippi State -0.7 · mkt Mississippi State —
proj Mississippi State 26.5 · Minnesota 25.8
Total
proj 52.3
Tennessee @ Georgia TechTennessee 66%
Model
Tennessee -5.8 · mkt Tennessee —
proj Tennessee 32.5 · Georgia Tech 26.7
Total
proj 59.2
Alabama @ KentuckyAlabama 80%
Model
Alabama -11.7 · mkt Alabama —
proj Alabama 32.3 · Kentucky 20.6
Total
proj 53.0
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.