CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 3 · SEC · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Florida @ Auburn8.8 pt gap
Model vs mktAuburn -8.8 · mkt Auburn ~0.0
LeanAuburn 0.0
Best priceAuburn 0 -110best of 1
WinAuburn 73%
LSU @ Ole Miss7.9 pt gap
Model vs mktOle Miss -9.9 · mkt Ole Miss ~-2.0
LeanOle Miss -2.0
Best priceOle Miss -1.5 -110best of 3
WinOle Miss 76%
Florida State @ Alabama3.5 pt gap
Model vs mktAlabama -12.0 · mkt Alabama ~-15.5
LeanFlorida State +15.5
Best priceFlorida State +15.5 -110best of 1
WinAlabama 80%
Full Slate — SEC · Week 3 · 11 games
Florida @ AuburnAuburn 73%
Model
Auburn -8.8 · mkt Auburn ~0.0
proj Florida 23.9 · Auburn 32.7
leans Auburn 0.0
◆ Mid 0
Auburn 0 -110DraftKings
Florida 0 -110DraftKings
LSU @ Ole MissOle Miss 76%
Model
Ole Miss -9.9 · mkt Ole Miss ~-2.0
proj LSU 24.0 · Ole Miss 33.9
leans Ole Miss -2.0
◆ Mid 1
Ole Miss -1.5 -110DraftKings
LSU +2.5 -110FanDuel
Florida State @ AlabamaAlabama 80%
Model
Alabama -12.0 · mkt Alabama ~-15.5
proj Florida State 21.6 · Alabama 33.5
leans Florida State +15.5
◆ Mid 0
Alabama -15.5 -110DraftKings
Florida State +15.5 -110DraftKings
Kennesaw State @ TennesseeTennessee 98%
Model
Tennessee -30.2 · mkt Tennessee —
proj Kennesaw State 10.5 · Tennessee 40.7
Total
proj 51.2
Troy @ MissouriMissouri 96%
Model
Missouri -24.6 · mkt Missouri —
proj Troy 15.1 · Missouri 39.7
Total
proj 54.8
New Mexico @ OklahomaOklahoma 95%
Model
Oklahoma -24.0 · mkt Oklahoma —
proj New Mexico 15.6 · Oklahoma 39.6
Total
proj 55.1
Kentucky @ Texas A&MTexas A&M 90%
Model
Texas A&M -18.2 · mkt Texas A&M —
proj Kentucky 17.6 · Texas A&M 35.8
Total
proj 53.3
NC State @ VanderbiltVanderbilt 78%
Model
Vanderbilt -11.2 · mkt Vanderbilt —
proj NC State 19.5 · Vanderbilt 30.6
Total
proj 50.1
Mississippi State @ South CarolinaSouth Carolina 64%
Model
South Carolina -5.1 · mkt South Carolina —
proj Mississippi State 23.3 · South Carolina 28.4
Total
proj 51.7
Georgia @ ArkansasGeorgia 86%
Model
Georgia -15.2 · mkt Georgia —
proj Georgia 37.3 · Arkansas 22.1
Total
proj 59.3
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.