CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 6 · SEC · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Texas @ Oklahoma9.9 pt gap
Model vs mktOklahoma -3.7 · mkt Oklahoma ~+6.2
LeanOklahoma +6.2
Best priceOklahoma +6.5 -110best of 4
WinOklahoma 60%
Georgia @ Alabama2.7 pt gap
Model vs mktGeorgia -5.4 · mkt Georgia ~-2.7
LeanGeorgia -2.7
Best priceGeorgia -2.5 -122best of 4
WinGeorgia 65%
Full Slate — SEC · Week 6 · 7 games
Texas @ OklahomaOklahoma 60%
Model
Oklahoma -3.7 · mkt Oklahoma ~+6.2
proj Texas 24.9 · Oklahoma 28.6
leans Oklahoma +6.2
◆ Mid 0.5
Oklahoma +6.5 -110FanDuel
Texas -6 -110DraftKings
Georgia @ AlabamaGeorgia 65%
Model
Georgia -5.4 · mkt Georgia ~-2.7
proj Georgia 30.8 · Alabama 25.4
leans Georgia -2.7
◆ Mid 0.5
Alabama +3 -110DraftKings
Georgia -2.5 -122FanDuel
South Carolina @ FloridaFlorida 59%
Model
Florida -3.2 · mkt Florida —
proj South Carolina 23.7 · Florida 26.9
Total
proj 50.6
Texas A&M @ MissouriTexas A&M 52%
Model
Texas A&M -0.8 · mkt Texas A&M —
proj Texas A&M 28.5 · Missouri 27.6
Total
proj 56.1
Ole Miss @ VanderbiltOle Miss 53%
Model
Ole Miss -1.2 · mkt Ole Miss —
proj Ole Miss 29.0 · Vanderbilt 27.8
Total
proj 56.8
Tennessee @ ArkansasTennessee 58%
Model
Tennessee -2.9 · mkt Tennessee —
proj Tennessee 29.8 · Arkansas 26.9
Total
proj 56.7
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.