CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 7 · SEC · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Alabama @ Tennessee1.2 pt gap
Model vs mktAlabama -0.3 · mkt Alabama ~-1.5
LeanTennessee +1.5
Best priceTennessee +1.5 -110best of 1
WinAlabama 51%
Auburn @ Georgia1.0 pt gap
Model vs mktGeorgia -15.5 · mkt Georgia ~-16.5
LeanAuburn +16.5
Best priceAuburn +16.5 -110best of 1
WinGeorgia 86%
Full Slate — SEC · Week 7 · 7 games
Alabama @ TennesseeAlabama 51%
Model
Alabama -0.3 · mkt Alabama ~-1.5
proj Alabama 28.4 · Tennessee 28.2
leans Tennessee +1.5
◆ Mid 0
Tennessee +1.5 -110DraftKings
Alabama -1.5 -110DraftKings
Auburn @ GeorgiaGeorgia 86%
Model
Georgia -15.5 · mkt Georgia ~-16.5
proj Auburn 19.0 · Georgia 34.5
leans Auburn +16.5
◆ Mid 0
Georgia -16.5 -110DraftKings
Auburn +16.5 -110DraftKings
Kentucky @ OklahomaOklahoma 89%
Model
Oklahoma -17.4 · mkt Oklahoma —
proj Kentucky 19.5 · Oklahoma 36.9
Total
proj 56.4
Mississippi State @ LSULSU 85%
Model
LSU -14.5 · mkt LSU —
proj Mississippi State 19.7 · LSU 34.2
Total
proj 53.9
Arkansas @ VanderbiltVanderbilt 81%
Model
Vanderbilt -12.6 · mkt Vanderbilt —
proj Arkansas 21.2 · Vanderbilt 33.8
Total
proj 54.9
Missouri @ Ole MissOle Miss 80%
Model
Ole Miss -12.1 · mkt Ole Miss —
proj Missouri 23.9 · Ole Miss 36.1
Total
proj 60.0
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.