CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 8 · SEC · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — SEC · Week 8 · 6 games
Texas A&M @ AlabamaAlabama 53%
Model
Alabama -1.1 · mkt Alabama —
proj Texas A&M 25.1 · Alabama 26.2
Total
proj 51.2
Ole Miss @ TexasOle Miss 52%
Model
Ole Miss -0.5 · mkt Ole Miss —
proj Ole Miss 26.2 · Texas 25.7
Total
proj 51.8
Tennessee @ South CarolinaTennessee 67%
Model
Tennessee -6.2 · mkt Tennessee —
proj Tennessee 30.5 · South Carolina 24.3
Total
proj 54.8
Oklahoma @ Mississippi StateOklahoma 75%
Model
Oklahoma -9.5 · mkt Oklahoma —
proj Oklahoma 32.4 · Mississippi State 22.9
Total
proj 55.4
Vanderbilt @ KentuckyVanderbilt 82%
Model
Vanderbilt -13.1 · mkt Vanderbilt —
proj Vanderbilt 30.1 · Kentucky 17.0
Total
proj 47.1
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.