CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 11 · Sun Belt · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Sun Belt · Week 11 · 7 games
App State @ MarshallMarshall 80%
Model
Marshall -11.9 · mkt Marshall —
proj App State 21.9 · Marshall 33.9
Total
proj 55.8
Southern Miss @ Louisiana TechLouisiana Tech 71%
Model
Louisiana Tech -8.0 · mkt Louisiana Tech —
proj Southern Miss 23.4 · Louisiana Tech 31.4
Total
proj 54.8
Troy @ South AlabamaTroy 51%
Model
Troy -0.4 · mkt Troy —
proj Troy 27.7 · South Alabama 27.3
Total
proj 55.0
Arkansas State @ Coastal CarolinaArkansas State 56%
Model
Arkansas State -2.3 · mkt Arkansas State —
proj Arkansas State 28.4 · Coastal Carolina 26.1
Total
proj 54.5
Louisiana @ UL MonroeLouisiana 68%
Model
Louisiana -6.6 · mkt Louisiana —
proj Louisiana 33.4 · UL Monroe 26.8
Total
proj 60.2
James Madison @ UConnJames Madison 68%
Model
James Madison -6.7 · mkt James Madison —
proj James Madison 30.1 · UConn 23.3
Total
proj 53.4
Georgia Southern @ Georgia StateGeorgia Southern 68%
Model
Georgia Southern -6.8 · mkt Georgia Southern —
proj Georgia Southern 31.2 · Georgia State 24.4
Total
proj 55.5
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.