CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 12 · Sun Belt · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Sun Belt · Week 12 · 7 games
UL Monroe @ App StateApp State 87%
Model
App State -16.0 · mkt App State —
proj UL Monroe 18.4 · App State 34.4
Total
proj 52.8
Georgia State @ MarshallMarshall 83%
Model
Marshall -13.8 · mkt Marshall —
proj Georgia State 21.9 · Marshall 35.7
Total
proj 57.6
Coastal Carolina @ LouisianaLouisiana 72%
Model
Louisiana -8.4 · mkt Louisiana —
proj Coastal Carolina 20.7 · Louisiana 29.2
Total
proj 49.9
Arkansas State @ Louisiana TechLouisiana Tech 68%
Model
Louisiana Tech -6.5 · mkt Louisiana Tech —
proj Arkansas State 23.2 · Louisiana Tech 29.7
Total
proj 52.9
Old Dominion @ UConnUConn 65%
Model
UConn -5.6 · mkt UConn —
proj Old Dominion 26.2 · UConn 31.8
Total
proj 57.9
Georgia Southern @ TroyTroy 63%
Model
Troy -4.8 · mkt Troy —
proj Georgia Southern 24.9 · Troy 29.7
Total
proj 54.6
South Alabama @ Southern MissSouthern Miss 63%
Model
Southern Miss -4.8 · mkt Southern Miss —
proj South Alabama 24.7 · Southern Miss 29.5
Total
proj 54.2
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.