CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 13 · Sun Belt · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Sun Belt · Week 13 · 7 games
Coastal Carolina @ James MadisonJames Madison 90%
Model
James Madison -17.9 · mkt James Madison —
proj Coastal Carolina 21.1 · James Madison 38.9
Total
proj 60.0
Southern Miss @ Old DominionOld Dominion 79%
Model
Old Dominion -11.6 · mkt Old Dominion —
proj Southern Miss 23.0 · Old Dominion 34.7
Total
proj 57.7
App State @ South AlabamaSouth Alabama 64%
Model
South Alabama -5.0 · mkt South Alabama —
proj App State 24.6 · South Alabama 29.6
Total
proj 54.2
Troy @ Arkansas StateArkansas State 58%
Model
Arkansas State -2.8 · mkt Arkansas State —
proj Troy 24.2 · Arkansas State 27.0
Total
proj 51.2
Louisiana Tech @ Georgia SouthernGeorgia Southern 55%
Model
Georgia Southern -1.8 · mkt Georgia Southern —
proj Louisiana Tech 26.9 · Georgia Southern 28.7
Total
proj 55.6
Louisiana @ Georgia StateLouisiana 58%
Model
Louisiana -2.8 · mkt Louisiana —
proj Louisiana 28.0 · Georgia State 25.2
Total
proj 53.2
Marshall @ UL MonroeMarshall 89%
Model
Marshall -17.5 · mkt Marshall —
proj Marshall 38.2 · UL Monroe 20.7
Total
proj 58.8
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.