CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 2 · Sun Belt · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Full Slate — Sun Belt · Week 2 · 10 games
Southern Miss @ AuburnAuburn 97%
Model
Auburn -27.7 · mkt Auburn —
proj Southern Miss 13.3 · Auburn 41.0
Total
proj 54.2
Louisiana Tech @ LSULSU 95%
Model
LSU -23.7 · mkt LSU —
proj Louisiana Tech 14.6 · LSU 38.3
Total
proj 53.0
Georgia Southern @ ClemsonClemson 94%
Model
Clemson -22.3 · mkt Clemson —
proj Georgia Southern 16.3 · Clemson 38.7
Total
proj 55.0
South Alabama @ TulaneTulane 90%
Model
Tulane -18.3 · mkt Tulane —
proj South Alabama 15.4 · Tulane 33.7
Total
proj 49.1
App State @ East CarolinaEast Carolina 88%
Model
East Carolina -16.9 · mkt East Carolina —
proj App State 19.1 · East Carolina 36.0
Total
proj 55.2
Middle Tennessee @ MarshallMarshall 81%
Model
Marshall -12.5 · mkt Marshall —
proj Middle Tennessee 21.3 · Marshall 33.8
Total
proj 55.0
Georgia State @ Kennesaw StateKennesaw State 78%
Model
Kennesaw State -10.9 · mkt Kennesaw State —
proj Georgia State 21.8 · Kennesaw State 32.7
Total
proj 54.4
Old Dominion @ Virginia TechOld Dominion 58%
Model
Old Dominion -3.0 · mkt Old Dominion —
proj Old Dominion 30.5 · Virginia Tech 27.5
Total
proj 58.0
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.