CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 2 · Sun Belt · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
Full Slate Sun Belt · Week 2 · 10 games
Model
USC -31.7 · mkt USC
proj Louisiana 10.8 · USC 42.6
Total
proj 53.4
Model
Auburn -27.7 · mkt Auburn
proj Southern Miss 13.3 · Auburn 41.0
Total
proj 54.2
Model
LSU -23.7 · mkt LSU
proj Louisiana Tech 14.6 · LSU 38.3
Total
proj 53.0
Model
Clemson -22.3 · mkt Clemson
proj Georgia Southern 16.3 · Clemson 38.7
Total
proj 55.0
Model
Tulane -18.3 · mkt Tulane
proj South Alabama 15.4 · Tulane 33.7
Total
proj 49.1
App State @ East CarolinaEast Carolina 88%
Model
East Carolina -16.9 · mkt East Carolina
proj App State 19.1 · East Carolina 36.0
Total
proj 55.2
Model
Marshall -12.5 · mkt Marshall
proj Middle Tennessee 21.3 · Marshall 33.8
Total
proj 55.0
Model
Kennesaw State -10.9 · mkt Kennesaw State
proj Georgia State 21.8 · Kennesaw State 32.7
Total
proj 54.4
Model
UAB -10.7 · mkt UAB
proj UL Monroe 20.5 · UAB 31.2
Total
proj 51.8
Model
Old Dominion -3.0 · mkt Old Dominion
proj Old Dominion 30.5 · Virginia Tech 27.5
Total
proj 58.0
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.