CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 3 · Sun Belt · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Sun Belt · Week 3 · 13 games
Troy @ MissouriMissouri 96%
Model
Missouri -24.6 · mkt Missouri —
proj Troy 15.1 · Missouri 39.7
Total
proj 54.8
Arkansas State @ TCUTCU 95%
Model
TCU -23.0 · mkt TCU —
proj Arkansas State 16.0 · TCU 39.0
Total
proj 55.1
Georgia State @ UCFUCF 88%
Model
UCF -16.5 · mkt UCF —
proj Georgia State 18.3 · UCF 34.8
Total
proj 53.1
Louisiana Tech @ BaylorBaylor 80%
Model
Baylor -11.8 · mkt Baylor —
proj Louisiana Tech 21.5 · Baylor 33.4
Total
proj 54.9
Charlotte @ App StateApp State 77%
Model
App State -10.5 · mkt App State —
proj Charlotte 22.1 · App State 32.6
Total
proj 54.8
UAB @ LouisianaLouisiana 73%
Model
Louisiana -8.7 · mkt Louisiana —
proj UAB 21.6 · Louisiana 30.2
Total
proj 51.8
Coastal Carolina @ DelawareDelaware 70%
Model
Delaware -7.3 · mkt Delaware —
proj Coastal Carolina 27.5 · Delaware 34.9
Total
proj 62.4
Georgia Southern @ Jacksonville StateJacksonville State 63%
Model
Jacksonville State -4.9 · mkt Jacksonville State —
proj Georgia Southern 24.2 · Jacksonville State 29.0
Total
proj 53.2
East Carolina @ Old DominionOld Dominion 54%
Model
Old Dominion -1.3 · mkt Old Dominion —
proj East Carolina 26.6 · Old Dominion 27.9
Total
proj 54.5
James Madison @ San Diego StateJames Madison 56%
Model
James Madison -2.1 · mkt James Madison —
proj James Madison 27.0 · San Diego State 25.0
Total
proj 52.0
Marshall @ Missouri StateMarshall 56%
Model
Marshall -2.1 · mkt Marshall —
proj Marshall 32.3 · Missouri State 30.2
Total
proj 62.6
Ohio @ South AlabamaOhio 65%
Model
Ohio -5.6 · mkt Ohio —
proj Ohio 29.5 · South Alabama 23.9
Total
proj 53.4
UConn @ Southern MissUConn 67%
Model
UConn -6.3 · mkt UConn —
proj UConn 30.1 · Southern Miss 23.8
Total
proj 54.0
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.