CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 4 · Sun Belt · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Full Slate — Sun Belt · Week 4 · 11 games
South Alabama @ KentuckyKentucky 91%
Model
Kentucky -18.6 · mkt Kentucky —
proj South Alabama 17.6 · Kentucky 36.2
Total
proj 53.7
App State @ NC StateNC State 84%
Model
NC State -14.2 · mkt NC State —
proj App State 20.4 · NC State 34.7
Total
proj 55.1
Southern Miss @ TulaneTulane 82%
Model
Tulane -12.7 · mkt Tulane —
proj Southern Miss 19.7 · Tulane 32.5
Total
proj 52.2
Kennesaw State @ Arkansas StateArkansas State 68%
Model
Arkansas State -6.6 · mkt Arkansas State —
proj Kennesaw State 22.7 · Arkansas State 29.2
Total
proj 51.9
Troy @ Utah StateUtah State 65%
Model
Utah State -5.5 · mkt Utah State —
proj Troy 26.5 · Utah State 32.0
Total
proj 58.5
James Madison @ Old DominionOld Dominion 52%
Model
Old Dominion -0.9 · mkt Old Dominion —
proj James Madison 27.7 · Old Dominion 28.5
Total
proj 56.2
Liberty @ Coastal CarolinaCoastal Carolina 52%
Model
Coastal Carolina -0.7 · mkt Coastal Carolina —
proj Liberty 27.3 · Coastal Carolina 28.0
Total
proj 55.3
Northern Illinois @ Georgia StateNorthern Illinois 52%
Model
Northern Illinois -0.8 · mkt Northern Illinois —
proj Northern Illinois 25.0 · Georgia State 24.2
Total
proj 49.1
Florida Atlantic @ UL MonroeFlorida Atlantic 69%
Model
Florida Atlantic -7.1 · mkt Florida Atlantic —
proj Florida Atlantic 32.5 · UL Monroe 25.5
Total
proj 58.0
Houston @ Georgia SouthernHouston 69%
Model
Houston -7.2 · mkt Houston —
proj Houston 33.1 · Georgia Southern 25.9
Total
proj 59.0
Louisiana @ CharlotteLouisiana 74%
Model
Louisiana -9.3 · mkt Louisiana —
proj Louisiana 32.8 · Charlotte 23.5
Total
proj 56.3
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.