CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 5 · Sun Belt · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Sun Belt · Week 5 · 6 games
UL Monroe @ South AlabamaSouth Alabama 81%
Model
South Alabama -12.5 · mkt South Alabama —
proj UL Monroe 20.6 · South Alabama 33.1
Total
proj 53.8
Marshall @ James MadisonJames Madison 76%
Model
James Madison -10.1 · mkt James Madison —
proj Marshall 24.8 · James Madison 34.9
Total
proj 59.7
Arkansas State @ LouisianaLouisiana 61%
Model
Louisiana -3.9 · mkt Louisiana —
proj Arkansas State 26.6 · Louisiana 30.5
Total
proj 57.1
Army @ Louisiana TechLouisiana Tech 56%
Model
Louisiana Tech -2.2 · mkt Louisiana Tech —
proj Army 24.1 · Louisiana Tech 26.2
Total
proj 50.3
Georgia Southern @ Coastal CarolinaGeorgia Southern 61%
Model
Georgia Southern -3.8 · mkt Georgia Southern —
proj Georgia Southern 29.0 · Coastal Carolina 25.2
Total
proj 54.2
Old Dominion @ Georgia StateOld Dominion 82%
Model
Old Dominion -13.2 · mkt Old Dominion —
proj Old Dominion 36.3 · Georgia State 23.0
Total
proj 59.3
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.