CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 6 · Sun Belt · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Full Slate — Sun Belt · Week 6 · 6 games
Coastal Carolina @ MarshallMarshall 74%
Model
Marshall -8.9 · mkt Marshall —
proj Coastal Carolina 23.7 · Marshall 32.6
Total
proj 56.3
South Alabama @ Arkansas StateArkansas State 68%
Model
Arkansas State -6.8 · mkt Arkansas State —
proj South Alabama 23.9 · Arkansas State 30.7
Total
proj 54.7
Louisiana @ Louisiana TechLouisiana Tech 66%
Model
Louisiana Tech -6.0 · mkt Louisiana Tech —
proj Louisiana 22.7 · Louisiana Tech 28.7
Total
proj 51.4
Southern Miss @ TroyTroy 65%
Model
Troy -5.4 · mkt Troy —
proj Southern Miss 24.7 · Troy 30.1
Total
proj 54.9
Old Dominion @ App StateOld Dominion 83%
Model
Old Dominion -13.5 · mkt Old Dominion —
proj Old Dominion 34.0 · App State 20.5
Total
proj 54.5
James Madison @ Georgia SouthernJames Madison 87%
Model
James Madison -16.2 · mkt James Madison —
proj James Madison 35.6 · Georgia Southern 19.5
Total
proj 55.1
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.