CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 7 · Sun Belt · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Sun Belt · Week 7 · 6 games
Georgia State @ James MadisonJames Madison 96%
Model
James Madison -25.4 · mkt James Madison —
proj Georgia State 18.2 · James Madison 43.6
Total
proj 61.9
Georgia Southern @ Old DominionOld Dominion 78%
Model
Old Dominion -10.9 · mkt Old Dominion —
proj Georgia Southern 24.7 · Old Dominion 35.5
Total
proj 60.2
Arkansas State @ Southern MissSouthern Miss 55%
Model
Southern Miss -1.9 · mkt Southern Miss —
proj Arkansas State 25.7 · Southern Miss 27.6
Total
proj 53.3
App State @ Coastal CarolinaCoastal Carolina 55%
Model
Coastal Carolina -1.7 · mkt Coastal Carolina —
proj App State 27.7 · Coastal Carolina 29.4
Total
proj 57.1
Troy @ LouisianaLouisiana 50%
Model
Louisiana -0.1 · mkt Louisiana —
proj Troy 26.9 · Louisiana 27.0
Total
proj 53.9
Louisiana Tech @ UL MonroeLouisiana Tech 79%
Model
Louisiana Tech -11.3 · mkt Louisiana Tech —
proj Louisiana Tech 34.0 · UL Monroe 22.7
Total
proj 56.7
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.