CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 9 · Sun Belt · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Sun Belt · Week 9 · 6 games
Troy @ James MadisonJames Madison 85%
Model
James Madison -14.7 · mkt James Madison —
proj Troy 21.9 · James Madison 36.7
Total
proj 58.6
Marshall @ Old DominionOld Dominion 70%
Model
Old Dominion -7.3 · mkt Old Dominion —
proj Marshall 21.1 · Old Dominion 28.4
Total
proj 49.5
App State @ Georgia SouthernGeorgia Southern 69%
Model
Georgia Southern -7.0 · mkt Georgia Southern —
proj App State 26.1 · Georgia Southern 33.1
Total
proj 59.2
Louisiana Tech @ South AlabamaLouisiana Tech 53%
Model
Louisiana Tech -1.0 · mkt Louisiana Tech —
proj Louisiana Tech 30.4 · South Alabama 29.4
Total
proj 59.8
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia StateCoastal Carolina 53%
Model
Coastal Carolina -1.1 · mkt Coastal Carolina —
proj Coastal Carolina 27.8 · Georgia State 26.7
Total
proj 54.5
Southern Miss @ UL MonroeSouthern Miss 78%
Model
Southern Miss -11.1 · mkt Southern Miss —
proj Southern Miss 35.4 · UL Monroe 24.3
Total
proj 59.6
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.