CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 10 · FBS · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Miami @ Notre Dame1.8 pt gap
Model vs mktNotre Dame -4.7 · mkt Notre Dame ~-6.5
LeanMiami +6.5
Best priceMiami +6.5 -110best of 2
WinNotre Dame 63%
Full Slate — FBS · Week 10 · 62 games
Miami @ Notre DameNotre Dame 63%
Model
Notre Dame -4.7 · mkt Notre Dame ~-6.5
proj Miami 25.2 · Notre Dame 29.8
leans Miami +6.5
◆ Mid 0
Notre Dame -6.5 -110FanDuel
Miami +6.5 -110FanDuel
Rice @ North TexasNorth Texas 92%
Model
North Texas -20.1 · mkt North Texas —
proj Rice 18.8 · North Texas 38.9
Total
proj 57.7
Oklahoma State @ Kansas StateKansas State 92%
Model
Kansas State -19.7 · mkt Kansas State —
proj Oklahoma State 18.1 · Kansas State 37.9
Total
proj 56.0
Michigan State @ MichiganMichigan 91%
Model
Michigan -18.8 · mkt Michigan —
proj Michigan State 18.4 · Michigan 37.2
Total
proj 55.6
UL Monroe @ Arkansas StateArkansas State 90%
Model
Arkansas State -18.1 · mkt Arkansas State —
proj UL Monroe 16.9 · Arkansas State 35.1
Total
proj 52.0
West Virginia @ Texas TechTexas Tech 89%
Model
Texas Tech -17.4 · mkt Texas Tech —
proj West Virginia 18.9 · Texas Tech 36.2
Total
proj 55.1
Kentucky @ TennesseeTennessee 87%
Model
Tennessee -16.2 · mkt Tennessee —
proj Kentucky 18.4 · Tennessee 34.5
Total
proj 52.9
Sam Houston @ Jacksonville StateJacksonville State 82%
Model
Jacksonville State -12.8 · mkt Jacksonville State —
proj Sam Houston 18.8 · Jacksonville State 31.6
Total
proj 50.4
Virginia Tech @ SMUSMU 79%
Model
SMU -11.6 · mkt SMU —
proj Virginia Tech 23.9 · SMU 35.4
Total
proj 59.3
Oregon @ Ohio StateOhio State 76%
Model
Ohio State -10.0 · mkt Ohio State —
proj Oregon 17.4 · Ohio State 27.4
Total
proj 44.8
Arkansas @ AuburnAuburn 75%
Model
Auburn -9.4 · mkt Auburn —
proj Arkansas 22.1 · Auburn 31.5
Total
proj 53.6
Georgia State @ App StateApp State 74%
Model
App State -9.0 · mkt App State —
proj Georgia State 23.6 · App State 32.6
Total
proj 56.2
Buffalo @ Miami (OH)Miami (OH) 73%
Model
Miami (OH) -8.8 · mkt Miami (OH) —
proj Buffalo 21.2 · Miami (OH) 30.0
Total
proj 51.1
Colorado @ Arizona StateArizona State 73%
Model
Arizona State -8.5 · mkt Arizona State —
proj Colorado 22.1 · Arizona State 30.6
Total
proj 52.6
Delaware @ Kennesaw StateKennesaw State 70%
Model
Kennesaw State -7.6 · mkt Kennesaw State —
proj Delaware 22.2 · Kennesaw State 29.8
Total
proj 52.1
Missouri State @ Florida InternationalFlorida International 68%
Model
Florida International -6.8 · mkt Florida International —
proj Missouri State 22.9 · Florida International 29.7
Total
proj 52.6
UCLA @ MinnesotaMinnesota 67%
Model
Minnesota -6.4 · mkt Minnesota —
proj UCLA 22.6 · Minnesota 29.1
Total
proj 51.7
Duke @ NC StateNC State 67%
Model
NC State -6.2 · mkt NC State —
proj Duke 23.2 · NC State 29.4
Total
proj 52.5
Nebraska @ IllinoisIllinois 66%
Model
Illinois -5.7 · mkt Illinois —
proj Nebraska 26.7 · Illinois 32.3
Total
proj 59.0
South Alabama @ LouisianaLouisiana 62%
Model
Louisiana -4.4 · mkt Louisiana —
proj South Alabama 23.8 · Louisiana 28.2
Total
proj 52.0
Northern Illinois @ San José StateSan José State 61%
Model
San José State -3.9 · mkt San José State —
proj Northern Illinois 23.1 · San José State 27.0
Total
proj 50.1
Louisville @ Georgia TechGeorgia Tech 59%
Model
Georgia Tech -3.2 · mkt Georgia Tech —
proj Louisville 25.4 · Georgia Tech 28.6
Total
proj 54.1
Cincinnati @ HoustonHouston 59%
Model
Houston -3.1 · mkt Houston —
proj Cincinnati 24.7 · Houston 27.8
Total
proj 52.4
Marshall @ Georgia SouthernGeorgia Southern 57%
Model
Georgia Southern -2.6 · mkt Georgia Southern —
proj Marshall 26.3 · Georgia Southern 28.9
Total
proj 55.1
Louisiana Tech @ TroyTroy 57%
Model
Troy -2.4 · mkt Troy —
proj Louisiana Tech 26.1 · Troy 28.5
Total
proj 54.6
Central Michigan @ Eastern MichiganEastern Michigan 57%
Model
Eastern Michigan -2.4 · mkt Eastern Michigan —
proj Central Michigan 25.8 · Eastern Michigan 28.2
Total
proj 54.0
Toledo @ Sacramento StateSacramento State 55%
Model
Sacramento State -1.9 · mkt Sacramento State —
proj Toledo 25.1 · Sacramento State 26.9
Total
proj 52.0
North Carolina @ UConnUConn 55%
Model
UConn -1.7 · mkt UConn —
proj North Carolina 27.0 · UConn 28.8
Total
proj 55.8
Maryland @ PurduePurdue 54%
Model
Purdue -1.5 · mkt Purdue —
proj Maryland 27.0 · Purdue 28.5
Total
proj 55.4
Texas @ MissouriMissouri 54%
Model
Missouri -1.3 · mkt Missouri —
proj Texas 25.7 · Missouri 27.0
Total
proj 52.6
Fresno State @ Utah StateUtah State 52%
Model
Utah State -0.5 · mkt Utah State —
proj Fresno State 27.7 · Utah State 28.2
Total
proj 55.8
Penn State @ WashingtonWashington 51%
Model
Washington -0.4 · mkt Washington —
proj Penn State 25.8 · Washington 26.2
Total
proj 51.9
South Florida @ East CarolinaSouth Florida 51%
Model
South Florida -0.5 · mkt South Florida —
proj South Florida 28.8 · East Carolina 28.3
Total
proj 57.1
Iowa State @ BaylorIowa State 52%
Model
Iowa State -0.8 · mkt Iowa State —
proj Iowa State 28.1 · Baylor 27.3
Total
proj 55.5
Georgia @ Ole MissGeorgia 56%
Model
Georgia -2.3 · mkt Georgia —
proj Georgia 31.2 · Ole Miss 28.9
Total
proj 60.2
Ball State @ MassachusettsBall State 56%
Model
Ball State -2.3 · mkt Ball State —
proj Ball State 29.8 · Massachusetts 27.5
Total
proj 57.4
New Mexico @ NevadaNew Mexico 61%
Model
New Mexico -4.0 · mkt New Mexico —
proj New Mexico 29.7 · Nevada 25.7
Total
proj 55.4
Iowa @ NorthwesternIowa 62%
Model
Iowa -4.4 · mkt Iowa —
proj Iowa 30.7 · Northwestern 26.3
Total
proj 57.0
Liberty @ New Mexico StateLiberty 62%
Model
Liberty -4.4 · mkt Liberty —
proj Liberty 31.4 · New Mexico State 27.0
Total
proj 58.4
Western Kentucky @ Middle TennesseeWestern Kentucky 65%
Model
Western Kentucky -5.5 · mkt Western Kentucky —
proj Western Kentucky 31.3 · Middle Tennessee 25.8
Total
proj 57.1
Rutgers @ WisconsinRutgers 66%
Model
Rutgers -5.7 · mkt Rutgers —
proj Rutgers 28.0 · Wisconsin 22.3
Total
proj 50.3
Old Dominion @ Coastal CarolinaOld Dominion 68%
Model
Old Dominion -6.6 · mkt Old Dominion —
proj Old Dominion 30.6 · Coastal Carolina 24.0
Total
proj 54.6
Oklahoma @ FloridaOklahoma 69%
Model
Oklahoma -7.1 · mkt Oklahoma —
proj Oklahoma 31.1 · Florida 24.0
Total
proj 55.1
Texas State @ Oregon StateTexas State 71%
Model
Texas State -7.8 · mkt Texas State —
proj Texas State 28.2 · Oregon State 20.3
Total
proj 48.5
UTSA @ Florida AtlanticUTSA 71%
Model
UTSA -7.9 · mkt UTSA —
proj UTSA 33.6 · Florida Atlantic 25.7
Total
proj 59.3
Texas A&M @ South CarolinaTexas A&M 72%
Model
Texas A&M -8.4 · mkt Texas A&M —
proj Texas A&M 31.6 · South Carolina 23.2
Total
proj 54.8
Hawai'i @ UTEPHawai'i 75%
Model
Hawai'i -9.7 · mkt Hawai'i —
proj Hawai'i 28.3 · UTEP 18.5
Total
proj 46.8
Boise State @ Colorado StateBoise State 76%
Model
Boise State -9.9 · mkt Boise State —
proj Boise State 32.4 · Colorado State 22.5
Total
proj 54.9
Florida State @ Boston CollegeFlorida State 77%
Model
Florida State -10.4 · mkt Florida State —
proj Florida State 32.3 · Boston College 22.0
Total
proj 54.3
James Madison @ Southern MissJames Madison 78%
Model
James Madison -11.0 · mkt James Madison —
proj James Madison 32.7 · Southern Miss 21.7
Total
proj 54.4
Vanderbilt @ Mississippi StateVanderbilt 88%
Model
Vanderbilt -16.6 · mkt Vanderbilt —
proj Vanderbilt 34.6 · Mississippi State 18.0
Total
proj 52.6
Clemson @ SyracuseClemson 89%
Model
Clemson -17.2 · mkt Clemson —
proj Clemson 38.7 · Syracuse 21.6
Total
proj 60.3
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.