CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 11 · FBS · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — FBS · Week 11 · 67 games
Massachusetts @ ToledoToledo 99%
Model
Toledo -34.5 · mkt Toledo —
proj Massachusetts 14.4 · Toledo 48.9
Total
proj 63.3
Boston College @ Notre DameNotre Dame 98%
Model
Notre Dame -30.0 · mkt Notre Dame —
proj Boston College 13.6 · Notre Dame 43.6
Total
proj 57.2
Northwestern @ Ohio StateOhio State 95%
Model
Ohio State -23.5 · mkt Ohio State —
proj Northwestern 14.4 · Ohio State 37.9
Total
proj 52.3
Minnesota @ Penn StatePenn State 90%
Model
Penn State -18.2 · mkt Penn State —
proj Minnesota 17.8 · Penn State 36.0
Total
proj 53.8
San José State @ Air ForceAir Force 89%
Model
Air Force -17.6 · mkt Air Force —
proj San José State 20.2 · Air Force 37.8
Total
proj 58.0
Sacramento State @ Central MichiganCentral Michigan 87%
Model
Central Michigan -16.2 · mkt Central Michigan —
proj Sacramento State 20.2 · Central Michigan 36.4
Total
proj 56.7
Colorado State @ Washington StateWashington State 87%
Model
Washington State -15.9 · mkt Washington State —
proj Colorado State 19.1 · Washington State 35.0
Total
proj 54.1
USC @ IndianaIndiana 83%
Model
Indiana -13.4 · mkt Indiana —
proj USC 20.6 · Indiana 34.0
Total
proj 54.5
Missouri @ GeorgiaGeorgia 81%
Model
Georgia -12.2 · mkt Georgia —
proj Missouri 21.9 · Georgia 34.2
Total
proj 56.1
California @ VirginiaVirginia 81%
Model
Virginia -12.2 · mkt Virginia —
proj California 20.5 · Virginia 32.7
Total
proj 53.2
Syracuse @ NC StateNC State 80%
Model
NC State -12.0 · mkt NC State —
proj Syracuse 21.8 · NC State 33.8
Total
proj 55.6
App State @ MarshallMarshall 80%
Model
Marshall -11.9 · mkt Marshall —
proj App State 21.9 · Marshall 33.9
Total
proj 55.8
Michigan @ OregonOregon 78%
Model
Oregon -11.0 · mkt Oregon —
proj Michigan 20.5 · Oregon 31.6
Total
proj 52.1
Memphis @ South FloridaSouth Florida 78%
Model
South Florida -10.7 · mkt South Florida —
proj Memphis 21.1 · South Florida 31.9
Total
proj 53.0
North Dakota State @ Hawai'iHawai'i 77%
Model
Hawai'i -10.7 · mkt Hawai'i —
proj North Dakota State 22.3 · Hawai'i 33.0
Total
proj 55.3
Middle Tennessee @ LibertyLiberty 76%
Model
Liberty -10.2 · mkt Liberty —
proj Middle Tennessee 21.9 · Liberty 32.1
Total
proj 54.0
Jacksonville State @ Western KentuckyWestern Kentucky 76%
Model
Western Kentucky -9.8 · mkt Western Kentucky —
proj Jacksonville State 21.7 · Western Kentucky 31.5
Total
proj 53.2
Utah State @ San Diego StateSan Diego State 75%
Model
San Diego State -9.8 · mkt San Diego State —
proj Utah State 21.3 · San Diego State 31.1
Total
proj 52.5
Oregon State @ Boise StateBoise State 75%
Model
Boise State -9.4 · mkt Boise State —
proj Oregon State 23.4 · Boise State 32.8
Total
proj 56.2
Kent State @ Bowling GreenBowling Green 73%
Model
Bowling Green -8.9 · mkt Bowling Green —
proj Kent State 21.1 · Bowling Green 29.9
Total
proj 51.0
Cincinnati @ Iowa StateIowa State 71%
Model
Iowa State -8.0 · mkt Iowa State —
proj Cincinnati 23.2 · Iowa State 31.2
Total
proj 54.4
Southern Miss @ Louisiana TechLouisiana Tech 71%
Model
Louisiana Tech -8.0 · mkt Louisiana Tech —
proj Southern Miss 23.4 · Louisiana Tech 31.4
Total
proj 54.8
Georgia Tech @ ClemsonClemson 71%
Model
Clemson -7.9 · mkt Clemson —
proj Georgia Tech 22.6 · Clemson 30.5
Total
proj 53.2
New Mexico State @ Missouri StateMissouri State 69%
Model
Missouri State -6.9 · mkt Missouri State —
proj New Mexico State 26.0 · Missouri State 32.9
Total
proj 59.0
Tennessee @ Texas A&MTexas A&M 67%
Model
Texas A&M -6.3 · mkt Texas A&M —
proj Tennessee 23.7 · Texas A&M 29.9
Total
proj 53.6
Ohio @ Miami (OH)Miami (OH) 64%
Model
Miami (OH) -5.1 · mkt Miami (OH) —
proj Ohio 25.5 · Miami (OH) 30.5
Total
proj 56.0
Fresno State @ Texas StateTexas State 62%
Model
Texas State -4.4 · mkt Texas State —
proj Fresno State 21.5 · Texas State 26.0
Total
proj 47.5
Stanford @ Virginia TechVirginia Tech 62%
Model
Virginia Tech -4.4 · mkt Virginia Tech —
proj Stanford 26.2 · Virginia Tech 30.6
Total
proj 56.8
Nevada @ Northern IllinoisNorthern Illinois 58%
Model
Northern Illinois -2.7 · mkt Northern Illinois —
proj Nevada 25.3 · Northern Illinois 28.0
Total
proj 53.3
Florida Atlantic @ TulsaTulsa 57%
Model
Tulsa -2.5 · mkt Tulsa —
proj Florida Atlantic 25.2 · Tulsa 27.7
Total
proj 52.8
Wisconsin @ MarylandMaryland 55%
Model
Maryland -1.8 · mkt Maryland —
proj Wisconsin 26.8 · Maryland 28.5
Total
proj 55.3
Florida State @ PittsburghPittsburgh 54%
Model
Pittsburgh -1.5 · mkt Pittsburgh —
proj Florida State 25.7 · Pittsburgh 27.1
Total
proj 52.8
Alabama @ VanderbiltVanderbilt 52%
Model
Vanderbilt -0.6 · mkt Vanderbilt —
proj Alabama 28.6 · Vanderbilt 29.2
Total
proj 57.8
Florida International @ DelawareDelaware 50%
Model
Delaware -0.1 · mkt Delaware —
proj Florida International 30.6 · Delaware 30.7
Total
proj 61.3
Nebraska @ RutgersRutgers 50%
Model
Rutgers 0.0 · mkt Rutgers —
proj Nebraska 29.3 · Rutgers 29.3
Total
proj 58.6
Troy @ South AlabamaTroy 51%
Model
Troy -0.4 · mkt Troy —
proj Troy 27.7 · South Alabama 27.3
Total
proj 55.0
South Carolina @ ArkansasSouth Carolina 54%
Model
South Carolina -1.5 · mkt South Carolina —
proj South Carolina 26.0 · Arkansas 24.5
Total
proj 50.6
Florida @ KentuckyFlorida 55%
Model
Florida -1.7 · mkt Florida —
proj Florida 29.0 · Kentucky 27.3
Total
proj 56.3
Arkansas State @ Coastal CarolinaArkansas State 56%
Model
Arkansas State -2.3 · mkt Arkansas State —
proj Arkansas State 28.4 · Coastal Carolina 26.1
Total
proj 54.5
Auburn @ Mississippi StateAuburn 60%
Model
Auburn -3.5 · mkt Auburn —
proj Auburn 30.2 · Mississippi State 26.8
Total
proj 57.0
Buffalo @ Ball StateBuffalo 61%
Model
Buffalo -4.0 · mkt Buffalo —
proj Buffalo 28.6 · Ball State 24.6
Total
proj 53.1
Kansas @ West VirginiaKansas 63%
Model
Kansas -4.6 · mkt Kansas —
proj Kansas 30.5 · West Virginia 26.0
Total
proj 56.5
Wyoming @ UTEPWyoming 63%
Model
Wyoming -4.8 · mkt Wyoming —
proj Wyoming 29.8 · UTEP 25.0
Total
proj 54.8
North Texas @ UTSANorth Texas 63%
Model
North Texas -4.9 · mkt North Texas —
proj North Texas 29.7 · UTSA 24.8
Total
proj 54.5
Ole Miss @ OklahomaOle Miss 65%
Model
Ole Miss -5.6 · mkt Ole Miss —
proj Ole Miss 30.4 · Oklahoma 24.9
Total
proj 55.3
Louisiana @ UL MonroeLouisiana 68%
Model
Louisiana -6.6 · mkt Louisiana —
proj Louisiana 33.4 · UL Monroe 26.8
Total
proj 60.2
James Madison @ UConnJames Madison 68%
Model
James Madison -6.7 · mkt James Madison —
proj James Madison 30.1 · UConn 23.3
Total
proj 53.4
Georgia Southern @ Georgia StateGeorgia Southern 68%
Model
Georgia Southern -6.8 · mkt Georgia Southern —
proj Georgia Southern 31.2 · Georgia State 24.4
Total
proj 55.5
Illinois @ UCLAIllinois 69%
Model
Illinois -7.2 · mkt Illinois —
proj Illinois 31.5 · UCLA 24.3
Total
proj 55.7
Western Michigan @ AkronWestern Michigan 72%
Model
Western Michigan -8.1 · mkt Western Michigan —
proj Western Michigan 32.3 · Akron 24.2
Total
proj 56.5
Houston @ ColoradoHouston 75%
Model
Houston -9.7 · mkt Houston —
proj Houston 30.8 · Colorado 21.1
Total
proj 51.9
Louisville @ North CarolinaLouisville 79%
Model
Louisville -11.5 · mkt Louisville —
proj Louisville 33.0 · North Carolina 21.6
Total
proj 54.6
Washington @ Michigan StateWashington 81%
Model
Washington -12.6 · mkt Washington —
proj Washington 33.5 · Michigan State 21.0
Total
proj 54.5
Kennesaw State @ Sam HoustonKennesaw State 82%
Model
Kennesaw State -13.0 · mkt Kennesaw State —
proj Kennesaw State 33.1 · Sam Houston 20.1
Total
proj 53.2
East Carolina @ CharlotteEast Carolina 93%
Model
East Carolina -21.3 · mkt East Carolina —
proj East Carolina 36.2 · Charlotte 14.9
Total
proj 51.1
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma StateTexas Tech 96%
Model
Texas Tech -25.6 · mkt Texas Tech —
proj Texas Tech 36.6 · Oklahoma State 10.9
Total
proj 47.5
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.