CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 12 · FBS · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Full Slate — FBS · Week 12 · 66 games
Virginia Tech @ MiamiMiami 94%
Model
Miami -22.2 · mkt Miami —
proj Virginia Tech 19.0 · Miami 41.2
Total
proj 60.2
Northern Illinois @ North Dakota StateNorth Dakota State 93%
Model
North Dakota State -21.5 · mkt North Dakota State —
proj Northern Illinois 17.2 · North Dakota State 38.7
Total
proj 55.8
UTEP @ Air ForceAir Force 93%
Model
Air Force -21.4 · mkt Air Force —
proj UTEP 18.1 · Air Force 39.6
Total
proj 57.7
UCLA @ MichiganMichigan 91%
Model
Michigan -19.4 · mkt Michigan —
proj UCLA 17.8 · Michigan 37.2
Total
proj 55.0
Rutgers @ Penn StatePenn State 89%
Model
Penn State -17.2 · mkt Penn State —
proj Rutgers 18.8 · Penn State 35.9
Total
proj 54.7
UL Monroe @ App StateApp State 87%
Model
App State -16.0 · mkt App State —
proj UL Monroe 18.4 · App State 34.4
Total
proj 52.8
Oklahoma State @ Arizona StateArizona State 86%
Model
Arizona State -15.3 · mkt Arizona State —
proj Oklahoma State 18.6 · Arizona State 34.0
Total
proj 52.6
SMU @ Notre DameNotre Dame 86%
Model
Notre Dame -15.2 · mkt Notre Dame —
proj SMU 19.9 · Notre Dame 35.1
Total
proj 54.9
Bowling Green @ ToledoToledo 86%
Model
Toledo -15.0 · mkt Toledo —
proj Bowling Green 20.2 · Toledo 35.2
Total
proj 55.4
Georgia State @ MarshallMarshall 83%
Model
Marshall -13.8 · mkt Marshall —
proj Georgia State 21.9 · Marshall 35.7
Total
proj 57.6
Arkansas @ TexasTexas 83%
Model
Texas -13.3 · mkt Texas —
proj Arkansas 21.1 · Texas 34.5
Total
proj 55.6
North Carolina @ VirginiaVirginia 82%
Model
Virginia -12.9 · mkt Virginia —
proj North Carolina 19.6 · Virginia 32.5
Total
proj 52.1
Eastern Michigan @ Western MichiganWestern Michigan 81%
Model
Western Michigan -12.3 · mkt Western Michigan —
proj Eastern Michigan 20.6 · Western Michigan 32.9
Total
proj 53.4
Colorado State @ Fresno StateFresno State 80%
Model
Fresno State -12.0 · mkt Fresno State —
proj Colorado State 21.6 · Fresno State 33.6
Total
proj 55.3
Missouri State @ Jacksonville StateJacksonville State 78%
Model
Jacksonville State -10.8 · mkt Jacksonville State —
proj Missouri State 20.8 · Jacksonville State 31.6
Total
proj 52.4
Charlotte @ TulsaTulsa 77%
Model
Tulsa -10.4 · mkt Tulsa —
proj Charlotte 21.3 · Tulsa 31.7
Total
proj 52.9
Wake Forest @ Georgia TechGeorgia Tech 74%
Model
Georgia Tech -9.3 · mkt Georgia Tech —
proj Wake Forest 24.9 · Georgia Tech 34.3
Total
proj 59.2
Syracuse @ Boston CollegeBoston College 74%
Model
Boston College -9.2 · mkt Boston College —
proj Syracuse 23.2 · Boston College 32.4
Total
proj 55.6
Kentucky @ MissouriMissouri 73%
Model
Missouri -8.5 · mkt Missouri —
proj Kentucky 21.9 · Missouri 30.4
Total
proj 52.4
Coastal Carolina @ LouisianaLouisiana 72%
Model
Louisiana -8.4 · mkt Louisiana —
proj Coastal Carolina 20.7 · Louisiana 29.2
Total
proj 49.9
NC State @ Florida StateFlorida State 70%
Model
Florida State -7.6 · mkt Florida State —
proj NC State 20.2 · Florida State 27.8
Total
proj 48.1
Arkansas State @ Louisiana TechLouisiana Tech 68%
Model
Louisiana Tech -6.5 · mkt Louisiana Tech —
proj Arkansas State 23.2 · Louisiana Tech 29.7
Total
proj 52.9
Pittsburgh @ LouisvilleLouisville 68%
Model
Louisville -6.5 · mkt Louisville —
proj Pittsburgh 20.7 · Louisville 27.1
Total
proj 47.8
Stanford @ CaliforniaCalifornia 67%
Model
California -6.3 · mkt California —
proj Stanford 24.2 · California 30.6
Total
proj 54.8
LSU @ TennesseeTennessee 67%
Model
Tennessee -6.3 · mkt Tennessee —
proj LSU 22.3 · Tennessee 28.6
Total
proj 50.9
Colorado @ CincinnatiCincinnati 66%
Model
Cincinnati -5.9 · mkt Cincinnati —
proj Colorado 22.2 · Cincinnati 28.1
Total
proj 50.3
Old Dominion @ UConnUConn 65%
Model
UConn -5.6 · mkt UConn —
proj Old Dominion 26.2 · UConn 31.8
Total
proj 57.9
Georgia Southern @ TroyTroy 63%
Model
Troy -4.8 · mkt Troy —
proj Georgia Southern 24.9 · Troy 29.7
Total
proj 54.6
South Alabama @ Southern MissSouthern Miss 63%
Model
Southern Miss -4.8 · mkt Southern Miss —
proj South Alabama 24.7 · Southern Miss 29.5
Total
proj 54.2
San Diego State @ Boise StateBoise State 58%
Model
Boise State -2.9 · mkt Boise State —
proj San Diego State 25.8 · Boise State 28.7
Total
proj 54.5
Central Michigan @ BuffaloBuffalo 58%
Model
Buffalo -2.8 · mkt Buffalo —
proj Central Michigan 26.1 · Buffalo 28.9
Total
proj 55.0
Florida International @ Kennesaw StateKennesaw State 56%
Model
Kennesaw State -2.0 · mkt Kennesaw State —
proj Florida International 25.9 · Kennesaw State 27.9
Total
proj 53.8
Texas A&M @ OklahomaOklahoma 53%
Model
Oklahoma -0.9 · mkt Oklahoma —
proj Texas A&M 26.6 · Oklahoma 27.5
Total
proj 54.0
East Carolina @ ArmyArmy 51%
Model
Army -0.5 · mkt Army —
proj East Carolina 26.1 · Army 26.7
Total
proj 52.8
Wisconsin @ PurduePurdue 51%
Model
Purdue -0.2 · mkt Purdue —
proj Wisconsin 27.9 · Purdue 28.1
Total
proj 55.9
Washington State @ Texas StateWashington State 51%
Model
Washington State -0.3 · mkt Washington State —
proj Washington State 22.5 · Texas State 22.1
Total
proj 44.6
Western Kentucky @ LibertyWestern Kentucky 53%
Model
Western Kentucky -0.9 · mkt Western Kentucky —
proj Western Kentucky 29.2 · Liberty 28.3
Total
proj 57.5
Northwestern @ MinnesotaNorthwestern 54%
Model
Northwestern -1.3 · mkt Northwestern —
proj Northwestern 28.2 · Minnesota 26.9
Total
proj 55.0
Arizona @ Kansas StateArizona 54%
Model
Arizona -1.4 · mkt Arizona —
proj Arizona 26.7 · Kansas State 25.3
Total
proj 52.0
Utah State @ Oregon StateUtah State 55%
Model
Utah State -1.8 · mkt Utah State —
proj Utah State 26.5 · Oregon State 24.7
Total
proj 51.2
North Texas @ TulaneNorth Texas 56%
Model
North Texas -2.0 · mkt North Texas —
proj North Texas 28.3 · Tulane 26.3
Total
proj 54.6
New Mexico @ WyomingNew Mexico 57%
Model
New Mexico -2.7 · mkt New Mexico —
proj New Mexico 29.7 · Wyoming 27.0
Total
proj 56.7
Clemson @ DukeClemson 59%
Model
Clemson -3.2 · mkt Clemson —
proj Clemson 30.7 · Duke 27.6
Total
proj 58.3
Delaware @ New Mexico StateDelaware 60%
Model
Delaware -3.5 · mkt Delaware —
proj Delaware 28.1 · New Mexico State 24.7
Total
proj 52.8
Middle Tennessee @ Sam HoustonMiddle Tennessee 61%
Model
Middle Tennessee -3.9 · mkt Middle Tennessee —
proj Middle Tennessee 29.5 · Sam Houston 25.7
Total
proj 55.2
Iowa State @ UCFIowa State 63%
Model
Iowa State -4.6 · mkt Iowa State —
proj Iowa State 29.5 · UCF 24.8
Total
proj 54.3
Houston @ West VirginiaHouston 65%
Model
Houston -5.4 · mkt Houston —
proj Houston 29.6 · West Virginia 24.3
Total
proj 53.9
Indiana @ WashingtonIndiana 69%
Model
Indiana -6.9 · mkt Indiana —
proj Indiana 30.7 · Washington 23.8
Total
proj 54.5
Hawai'i @ NevadaHawai'i 70%
Model
Hawai'i -7.4 · mkt Hawai'i —
proj Hawai'i 30.5 · Nevada 23.1
Total
proj 53.6
Vanderbilt @ FloridaVanderbilt 71%
Model
Vanderbilt -7.9 · mkt Vanderbilt —
proj Vanderbilt 26.3 · Florida 18.4
Total
proj 44.8
Akron @ MassachusettsAkron 78%
Model
Akron -10.8 · mkt Akron —
proj Akron 33.2 · Massachusetts 22.4
Total
proj 55.7
South Florida @ Florida AtlanticSouth Florida 83%
Model
South Florida -13.5 · mkt South Florida —
proj South Florida 35.3 · Florida Atlantic 21.8
Total
proj 57.1
Miami (OH) @ Kent StateMiami (OH) 87%
Model
Miami (OH) -16.0 · mkt Miami (OH) —
proj Miami (OH) 36.4 · Kent State 20.5
Total
proj 56.9
Georgia @ South CarolinaGeorgia 88%
Model
Georgia -16.5 · mkt Georgia —
proj Georgia 36.7 · South Carolina 20.2
Total
proj 56.9
UNLV @ San José StateUNLV 89%
Model
UNLV -17.4 · mkt UNLV —
proj UNLV 38.3 · San José State 20.8
Total
proj 59.1
Ohio State @ NebraskaOhio State 90%
Model
Ohio State -18.3 · mkt Ohio State —
proj Ohio State 38.4 · Nebraska 20.1
Total
proj 58.5
Texas Tech @ BaylorTexas Tech 94%
Model
Texas Tech -22.5 · mkt Texas Tech —
proj Texas Tech 40.0 · Baylor 17.5
Total
proj 57.4
Oregon @ Michigan StateOregon 97%
Model
Oregon -26.6 · mkt Oregon —
proj Oregon 41.8 · Michigan State 15.2
Total
proj 57.0
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.