CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 13 · FBS · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsAmerican AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Michigan @ Ohio State1.3 pt gap
Model vs mktOhio State -12.8 · mkt Ohio State ~-11.5
LeanOhio State -11.5
Best priceOhio State -11.5 -110best of 2
WinOhio State 82%
Full Slate — FBS · Week 13 · 65 games
Michigan @ Ohio StateOhio State 82%
Model
Ohio State -12.8 · mkt Ohio State ~-11.5
proj Michigan 19.6 · Ohio State 32.3
leans Ohio State -11.5
◆ Mid 0
Ohio State -11.5 -110FanDuel
Michigan +11.5 -110FanDuel
Purdue @ IndianaIndiana 98%
Model
Indiana -29.8 · mkt Indiana —
proj Purdue 18.8 · Indiana 48.6
Total
proj 67.4
Boston College @ MiamiMiami 98%
Model
Miami -29.2 · mkt Miami —
proj Boston College 11.9 · Miami 41.1
Total
proj 53.0
West Virginia @ UtahUtah 95%
Model
Utah -23.8 · mkt Utah —
proj West Virginia 15.4 · Utah 39.2
Total
proj 54.6
Sacramento State @ Hawai'iHawai'i 93%
Model
Hawai'i -21.0 · mkt Hawai'i —
proj Sacramento State 17.8 · Hawai'i 38.8
Total
proj 56.5
UAB @ North TexasNorth Texas 93%
Model
North Texas -20.9 · mkt North Texas —
proj UAB 17.5 · North Texas 38.4
Total
proj 55.9
Massachusetts @ Bowling GreenBowling Green 92%
Model
Bowling Green -20.3 · mkt Bowling Green —
proj Massachusetts 16.5 · Bowling Green 36.8
Total
proj 53.4
Coastal Carolina @ James MadisonJames Madison 90%
Model
James Madison -17.9 · mkt James Madison —
proj Coastal Carolina 21.1 · James Madison 38.9
Total
proj 60.0
Florida Atlantic @ East CarolinaEast Carolina 89%
Model
East Carolina -17.4 · mkt East Carolina —
proj Florida Atlantic 18.8 · East Carolina 36.2
Total
proj 55.0
Georgia Tech @ GeorgiaGeorgia 88%
Model
Georgia -16.4 · mkt Georgia —
proj Georgia Tech 18.3 · Georgia 34.7
Total
proj 53.0
Temple @ MemphisMemphis 87%
Model
Memphis -16.1 · mkt Memphis —
proj Temple 18.0 · Memphis 34.1
Total
proj 52.1
Mississippi State @ Ole MissOle Miss 86%
Model
Ole Miss -15.1 · mkt Ole Miss —
proj Mississippi State 17.8 · Ole Miss 32.8
Total
proj 50.6
Sam Houston @ Florida InternationalFlorida International 84%
Model
Florida International -14.1 · mkt Florida International —
proj Sam Houston 17.9 · Florida International 32.0
Total
proj 50.0
TCU @ Texas TechTexas Tech 83%
Model
Texas Tech -13.5 · mkt Texas Tech —
proj TCU 21.0 · Texas Tech 34.5
Total
proj 55.5
Washington @ OregonOregon 82%
Model
Oregon -13.0 · mkt Oregon —
proj Washington 20.7 · Oregon 33.7
Total
proj 54.4
Tulane @ South FloridaSouth Florida 81%
Model
South Florida -12.3 · mkt South Florida —
proj Tulane 22.4 · South Florida 34.7
Total
proj 57.1
Southern Miss @ Old DominionOld Dominion 79%
Model
Old Dominion -11.6 · mkt Old Dominion —
proj Southern Miss 23.0 · Old Dominion 34.7
Total
proj 57.7
Air Force @ New MexicoNew Mexico 79%
Model
New Mexico -11.2 · mkt New Mexico —
proj Air Force 23.4 · New Mexico 34.6
Total
proj 58.0
Kent State @ Eastern MichiganEastern Michigan 76%
Model
Eastern Michigan -10.0 · mkt Eastern Michigan —
proj Kent State 20.9 · Eastern Michigan 30.9
Total
proj 51.7
Michigan State @ RutgersRutgers 73%
Model
Rutgers -8.5 · mkt Rutgers —
proj Michigan State 24.8 · Rutgers 33.2
Total
proj 58.0
Baylor @ HoustonHouston 71%
Model
Houston -7.8 · mkt Houston —
proj Baylor 23.2 · Houston 30.9
Total
proj 54.1
Texas @ Texas A&MTexas A&M 70%
Model
Texas A&M -7.5 · mkt Texas A&M —
proj Texas 23.1 · Texas A&M 30.6
Total
proj 53.6
Arizona State @ ArizonaArizona 69%
Model
Arizona -7.2 · mkt Arizona —
proj Arizona State 23.3 · Arizona 30.5
Total
proj 53.9
South Carolina @ ClemsonClemson 68%
Model
Clemson -6.7 · mkt Clemson —
proj South Carolina 22.4 · Clemson 29.1
Total
proj 51.5
Kennesaw State @ Western KentuckyWestern Kentucky 68%
Model
Western Kentucky -6.5 · mkt Western Kentucky —
proj Kennesaw State 22.9 · Western Kentucky 29.3
Total
proj 52.2
Northwestern @ IllinoisIllinois 67%
Model
Illinois -6.4 · mkt Illinois —
proj Northwestern 24.9 · Illinois 31.4
Total
proj 56.3
North Dakota State @ San José StateSan José State 67%
Model
San José State -6.3 · mkt San José State —
proj North Dakota State 23.1 · San José State 29.4
Total
proj 52.5
Miami (OH) @ Western MichiganWestern Michigan 67%
Model
Western Michigan -6.2 · mkt Western Michigan —
proj Miami (OH) 24.5 · Western Michigan 30.6
Total
proj 55.1
Auburn @ AlabamaAlabama 66%
Model
Alabama -6.0 · mkt Alabama —
proj Auburn 24.2 · Alabama 30.2
Total
proj 54.5
New Mexico State @ Middle TennesseeMiddle Tennessee 65%
Model
Middle Tennessee -5.6 · mkt Middle Tennessee —
proj New Mexico State 23.8 · Middle Tennessee 29.3
Total
proj 53.1
UTEP @ Northern IllinoisNorthern Illinois 65%
Model
Northern Illinois -5.5 · mkt Northern Illinois —
proj UTEP 22.3 · Northern Illinois 27.8
Total
proj 50.1
App State @ South AlabamaSouth Alabama 64%
Model
South Alabama -5.0 · mkt South Alabama —
proj App State 24.6 · South Alabama 29.6
Total
proj 54.2
Kansas State @ Iowa StateIowa State 62%
Model
Iowa State -4.3 · mkt Iowa State —
proj Kansas State 23.2 · Iowa State 27.5
Total
proj 50.7
Florida @ Florida StateFlorida State 58%
Model
Florida State -3.0 · mkt Florida State —
proj Florida 24.7 · Florida State 27.7
Total
proj 52.5
Troy @ Arkansas StateArkansas State 58%
Model
Arkansas State -2.8 · mkt Arkansas State —
proj Troy 24.2 · Arkansas State 27.0
Total
proj 51.2
Louisiana Tech @ Georgia SouthernGeorgia Southern 55%
Model
Georgia Southern -1.8 · mkt Georgia Southern —
proj Louisiana Tech 26.9 · Georgia Southern 28.7
Total
proj 55.6
Tennessee @ VanderbiltVanderbilt 53%
Model
Vanderbilt -0.9 · mkt Vanderbilt —
proj Tennessee 25.9 · Vanderbilt 26.9
Total
proj 52.8
Minnesota @ WisconsinWisconsin 52%
Model
Wisconsin -0.9 · mkt Wisconsin —
proj Minnesota 26.5 · Wisconsin 27.4
Total
proj 54.0
Louisville @ KentuckyKentucky 51%
Model
Kentucky -0.3 · mkt Kentucky —
proj Louisville 27.6 · Kentucky 27.9
Total
proj 55.5
Liberty @ Missouri StateLiberty 54%
Model
Liberty -1.3 · mkt Liberty —
proj Liberty 28.5 · Missouri State 27.2
Total
proj 55.7
Duke @ Wake ForestDuke 55%
Model
Duke -1.7 · mkt Duke —
proj Duke 26.0 · Wake Forest 24.2
Total
proj 50.2
Jacksonville State @ DelawareJacksonville State 56%
Model
Jacksonville State -2.1 · mkt Jacksonville State —
proj Jacksonville State 30.4 · Delaware 28.4
Total
proj 58.8
Oklahoma @ MissouriOklahoma 56%
Model
Oklahoma -2.3 · mkt Oklahoma —
proj Oklahoma 28.6 · Missouri 26.3
Total
proj 54.9
Louisiana @ Georgia StateLouisiana 58%
Model
Louisiana -2.8 · mkt Louisiana —
proj Louisiana 28.0 · Georgia State 25.2
Total
proj 53.2
Pittsburgh @ CaliforniaPittsburgh 60%
Model
Pittsburgh -3.5 · mkt Pittsburgh —
proj Pittsburgh 28.5 · California 25.0
Total
proj 53.5
Central Michigan @ Ball StateCentral Michigan 62%
Model
Central Michigan -4.3 · mkt Central Michigan —
proj Central Michigan 27.6 · Ball State 23.3
Total
proj 50.9
Virginia @ Virginia TechVirginia 63%
Model
Virginia -4.7 · mkt Virginia —
proj Virginia 32.3 · Virginia Tech 27.6
Total
proj 59.8
NC State @ North CarolinaNC State 65%
Model
NC State -5.4 · mkt NC State —
proj NC State 27.8 · North Carolina 22.4
Total
proj 50.2
Kansas @ Oklahoma StateKansas 85%
Model
Kansas -14.5 · mkt Kansas —
proj Kansas 34.9 · Oklahoma State 20.4
Total
proj 55.3
Penn State @ MarylandPenn State 88%
Model
Penn State -16.8 · mkt Penn State —
proj Penn State 38.6 · Maryland 21.8
Total
proj 60.4
Marshall @ UL MonroeMarshall 89%
Model
Marshall -17.5 · mkt Marshall —
proj Marshall 38.2 · UL Monroe 20.7
Total
proj 58.8
Notre Dame @ SyracuseNotre Dame 98%
Model
Notre Dame -28.3 · mkt Notre Dame —
proj Notre Dame 35.2 · Syracuse 6.9
Total
proj 42.1
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.