CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 2 · FBS · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Oregon @ Oklahoma State10.6 pt gap
Model vs mktOregon -29.1 · mkt Oregon ~-18.5
LeanOregon -18.5
Best priceOregon -17.5 -105best of 2
WinOregon 98%
Ohio State @ Texas6.8 pt gap
Model vs mktOhio State -5.3 · mkt Ohio State +1.5
LeanOhio State +1.5
Best priceOhio State +1.5 -108best of 4
WinOhio State 65%
Oklahoma @ Michigan5.5 pt gap
Model vs mktOklahoma -3.0 · mkt Oklahoma +2.5
LeanOklahoma +2.5
Best priceOklahoma +2.5 -110best of 4
WinOklahoma 58%
Missouri @ Kansas4.9 pt gap
Model vs mktMissouri -1.8 · mkt Missouri ~-6.7
LeanKansas +6.7
Best priceKansas +7 -110best of 2
WinMissouri 55%
Arizona State @ Texas A&M2.6 pt gap
Model vs mktTexas A&M -17.1 · mkt Texas A&M ~-14.5
LeanTexas A&M -14.5
Best priceTexas A&M -14.5 -110best of 1
WinTexas A&M 89%
Iowa State @ Iowa2.4 pt gap
Model vs mktIowa -9.6 · mkt Iowa ~-12.0
LeanIowa State +12.0
Best priceIowa State +12.5 +100best of 2
WinIowa 75%
Arkansas @ Utah2.0 pt gap
Model vs mktUtah -12.0 · mkt Utah ~-10.0
LeanUtah -10.0
Best priceUtah -10 -110best of 1
WinUtah 80%
Full Slate — FBS · Week 2 · 49 games
Oregon @ Oklahoma StateOregon 98%
Model
Oregon -29.1 · mkt Oregon ~-18.5
proj Oregon 40.5 · Oklahoma State 11.4
leans Oregon -18.5
◆ Mid 2
Oklahoma State +19.5 -110DraftKings
Oregon -17.5 -105FanDuel
Ohio State @ TexasOhio State 65%
Model
Ohio State -5.3 · mkt Ohio State +1.5
proj Ohio State 28.5 · Texas 23.1
leans Ohio State +1.5
◆ Mid 1.5
Texas 0 -110DraftKings
Ohio State +1.5 -108FanDuel
Oklahoma @ MichiganOklahoma 58%
Model
Oklahoma -3.0 · mkt Oklahoma +2.5
proj Oklahoma 26.0 · Michigan 23.0
leans Oklahoma +2.5
◆ Mid 0
Michigan -2.5 -110DraftKings
Oklahoma +2.5 -110DraftKings
Missouri @ KansasMissouri 55%
Model
Missouri -1.8 · mkt Missouri ~-6.7
proj Missouri 31.3 · Kansas 29.5
leans Kansas +6.7
◆ Mid 0.5
Kansas +7 -110DraftKings
Missouri -6.5 -112FanDuel
Arizona State @ Texas A&MTexas A&M 89%
Model
Texas A&M -17.1 · mkt Texas A&M ~-14.5
proj Arizona State 17.8 · Texas A&M 34.8
leans Texas A&M -14.5
◆ Mid 0
Texas A&M -14.5 -110DraftKings
Arizona State +14.5 -110DraftKings
Iowa State @ IowaIowa 75%
Model
Iowa -9.6 · mkt Iowa ~-12.0
proj Iowa State 22.3 · Iowa 32.0
leans Iowa State +12.0
◆ Mid 1
Iowa -11.5 -110DraftKings
Iowa State +12.5 +100FanDuel
Arkansas @ UtahUtah 80%
Model
Utah -12.0 · mkt Utah ~-10.0
proj Arkansas 24.6 · Utah 36.6
leans Utah -10.0
◆ Mid 0
Utah -10 -110DraftKings
Arkansas +10 -110DraftKings
Western Kentucky @ GeorgiaGeorgia 100%
Model
Georgia -41.7 · mkt Georgia —
proj Western Kentucky 5.7 · Georgia 47.4
Total
proj 53.1
Delaware @ VanderbiltVanderbilt 100%
Model
Vanderbilt -41.2 · mkt Vanderbilt —
proj Delaware 7.0 · Vanderbilt 48.1
Total
proj 55.1
Charlotte @ Ole MissOle Miss 100%
Model
Ole Miss -38.9 · mkt Ole Miss —
proj Charlotte 10.6 · Ole Miss 49.5
Total
proj 60.1
Rice @ Notre DameNotre Dame 99%
Model
Notre Dame -35.1 · mkt Notre Dame —
proj Rice 14.1 · Notre Dame 49.2
Total
proj 63.3
Southern Miss @ AuburnAuburn 97%
Model
Auburn -27.7 · mkt Auburn —
proj Southern Miss 13.3 · Auburn 41.0
Total
proj 54.2
Bowling Green @ NebraskaNebraska 96%
Model
Nebraska -25.2 · mkt Nebraska —
proj Bowling Green 13.0 · Nebraska 38.2
Total
proj 51.2
Louisiana Tech @ LSULSU 95%
Model
LSU -23.7 · mkt LSU —
proj Louisiana Tech 14.6 · LSU 38.3
Total
proj 53.0
Georgia Southern @ ClemsonClemson 94%
Model
Clemson -22.3 · mkt Clemson —
proj Georgia Southern 16.3 · Clemson 38.7
Total
proj 55.0
Utah State @ WashingtonWashington 93%
Model
Washington -21.3 · mkt Washington —
proj Utah State 17.1 · Washington 38.4
Total
proj 55.5
Sacramento State @ Fresno StateFresno State 93%
Model
Fresno State -21.0 · mkt Fresno State —
proj Sacramento State 17.8 · Fresno State 38.8
Total
proj 56.6
South Alabama @ TulaneTulane 90%
Model
Tulane -18.3 · mkt Tulane —
proj South Alabama 15.4 · Tulane 33.7
Total
proj 49.1
App State @ East CarolinaEast Carolina 88%
Model
East Carolina -16.9 · mkt East Carolina —
proj App State 19.1 · East Carolina 36.0
Total
proj 55.2
Eastern Michigan @ Michigan StateMichigan State 84%
Model
Michigan State -14.3 · mkt Michigan State —
proj Eastern Michigan 19.2 · Michigan State 33.5
Total
proj 52.6
UCF @ PittsburghPittsburgh 81%
Model
Pittsburgh -12.6 · mkt Pittsburgh —
proj UCF 22.1 · Pittsburgh 34.7
Total
proj 56.7
Middle Tennessee @ MarshallMarshall 81%
Model
Marshall -12.5 · mkt Marshall —
proj Middle Tennessee 21.3 · Marshall 33.8
Total
proj 55.0
New Mexico State @ Hawai'iHawai'i 80%
Model
Hawai'i -11.9 · mkt Hawai'i —
proj New Mexico State 20.1 · Hawai'i 32.0
Total
proj 52.1
Georgia State @ Kennesaw StateKennesaw State 78%
Model
Kennesaw State -10.9 · mkt Kennesaw State —
proj Georgia State 21.8 · Kennesaw State 32.7
Total
proj 54.4
Washington State @ Kansas StateKansas State 73%
Model
Kansas State -8.5 · mkt Kansas State —
proj Washington State 21.9 · Kansas State 30.4
Total
proj 52.4
Duke @ IllinoisIllinois 72%
Model
Illinois -8.4 · mkt Illinois —
proj Duke 21.4 · Illinois 29.8
Total
proj 51.1
North Dakota State @ Air ForceAir Force 71%
Model
Air Force -7.9 · mkt Air Force —
proj North Dakota State 23.5 · Air Force 31.3
Total
proj 54.8
UNLV @ North TexasNorth Texas 70%
Model
North Texas -7.5 · mkt North Texas —
proj UNLV 22.7 · North Texas 30.2
Total
proj 52.9
Jacksonville State @ OhioOhio 64%
Model
Ohio -5.0 · mkt Ohio —
proj Jacksonville State 25.1 · Ohio 30.1
Total
proj 55.1
Memphis @ Boise StateBoise State 58%
Model
Boise State -2.7 · mkt Boise State —
proj Memphis 25.3 · Boise State 28.0
Total
proj 53.3
Buffalo @ Florida InternationalFlorida International 57%
Model
Florida International -2.4 · mkt Florida International —
proj Buffalo 24.4 · Florida International 26.8
Total
proj 51.2
UTSA @ Texas StateTexas State 55%
Model
Texas State -1.7 · mkt Texas State —
proj UTSA 28.2 · Texas State 30.0
Total
proj 58.2
Mississippi State @ MinnesotaMississippi State 52%
Model
Mississippi State -0.7 · mkt Mississippi State —
proj Mississippi State 26.5 · Minnesota 25.8
Total
proj 52.3
California @ SyracuseCalifornia 56%
Model
California -2.1 · mkt California —
proj California 28.9 · Syracuse 26.7
Total
proj 55.6
Old Dominion @ Virginia TechOld Dominion 58%
Model
Old Dominion -3.0 · mkt Old Dominion —
proj Old Dominion 30.5 · Virginia Tech 27.5
Total
proj 58.0
Rutgers @ Boston CollegeRutgers 65%
Model
Rutgers -5.3 · mkt Rutgers —
proj Rutgers 31.3 · Boston College 26.0
Total
proj 57.3
Tennessee @ Georgia TechTennessee 66%
Model
Tennessee -5.8 · mkt Tennessee —
proj Tennessee 32.5 · Georgia Tech 26.7
Total
proj 59.2
San Diego State @ UCLASan Diego State 66%
Model
San Diego State -6.0 · mkt San Diego State —
proj San Diego State 30.8 · UCLA 24.8
Total
proj 55.6
Tulsa @ Sam HoustonTulsa 68%
Model
Tulsa -6.5 · mkt Tulsa —
proj Tulsa 31.4 · Sam Houston 24.9
Total
proj 56.3
Wake Forest @ PurdueWake Forest 69%
Model
Wake Forest -6.9 · mkt Wake Forest —
proj Wake Forest 30.6 · Purdue 23.7
Total
proj 54.4
South Florida @ ArmySouth Florida 71%
Model
South Florida -8.0 · mkt South Florida —
proj South Florida 29.0 · Army 21.1
Total
proj 50.1
Navy @ Florida AtlanticNavy 75%
Model
Navy -9.7 · mkt Navy —
proj Navy 33.5 · Florida Atlantic 23.8
Total
proj 57.4
Alabama @ KentuckyAlabama 80%
Model
Alabama -11.7 · mkt Alabama —
proj Alabama 32.3 · Kentucky 20.6
Total
proj 53.0
Texas Tech @ Oregon StateTexas Tech 93%
Model
Texas Tech -21.0 · mkt Texas Tech —
proj Texas Tech 35.1 · Oregon State 14.1
Total
proj 49.2
Penn State @ TemplePenn State 95%
Model
Penn State -23.1 · mkt Penn State —
proj Penn State 41.2 · Temple 18.1
Total
proj 59.3
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.