East Carolina at AlabamaAlabama -27.5o/u 54.5

ST Model Alabama -15.1(-12.4 vs market)

Trends · 2026 week 1

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

East Carolina — the basics

140 graded games since 2014

on the road	33-31	52%	-0.8	n=64
as an underdog	43-38	53%	+0.9	n=81
spread 21+	10-14	42%	-3.1	n=24
out of conference	29-20	59%	+2.8	n=49
vs an FBS opponent	63-66	49%	+0.1	n=129
vs a P5 opponent	16-8	67%	+3.5	n=24
vs the SEC	3-2	60%	+2.2	n=5
in September	25-21	54%	+1.8	n=46
in the last 5 seasons	36-26	58%	+3.1	n=62

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

East Carolina — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +8.0 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 140 graded games: +0.4 pts vs their number per game	n=140
East Carolina has covered 2 straight	n=2

East Carolina — combinations

91 lean East Carolina · 16 lean against

Read this first. 120 combinations shown. The best one here is 80%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 78% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs a P5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	6-2	75%from 67%	+5.2	n=8
as an underdog + vs a P5 opponent	16-8	67%from 53%	+3.5	n=24
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-2	75%from 67%	+5.2	n=8
+ in September	10-5	67%from 67%	+4.3	n=15
+ vs the SEC	3-2	60%from 67%	+2.2	n=5
out of conference + vs a P5 opponent	16-8	67%from 59%	+3.5	n=24
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-2	75%from 67%	+5.2	n=8
+ in September	10-5	67%from 67%	+4.3	n=15
+ vs the SEC	3-2	60%from 67%	+2.2	n=5
vs an FBS opponent + vs a P5 opponent	16-8	67%from 49%	+3.5	n=24
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-2	75%from 67%	+5.2	n=8
+ in September	10-5	67%from 67%	+4.3	n=15
+ vs the SEC	3-2	60%from 67%	+2.2	n=5
vs a P5 opponent + in September	10-5	67%from 67%	+4.3	n=15
on the road + vs a P5 opponent	8-4	67%from 52%	-2.1	n=12
+ in September	5-2	71%from 67%	-0.1	n=7
spread 21+ + in the last 5 seasons	4-2	67%from 42%	+3.5	n=6
out of conference + in the last 5 seasons	15-8	65%from 59%	+5.7	n=23
as an underdog + in the last 5 seasons	19-12	61%from 53%	+3.8	n=31
on the road + out of conference	12-8	60%from 52%	-0.2	n=20
+ vs a P5 opponent	8-4	67%from 60%	-2.1	n=12
+ in September	5-2	71%from 67%	-0.1	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-3	67%from 60%	+6.4	n=9
+ in September	9-5	64%from 60%	+3.0	n=14
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-3	57%from 64%	+6.4	n=7
+ vs an FBS opponent	12-8	60%from 60%	-0.2	n=20
+ vs a P5 opponent	8-4	67%from 60%	-2.1	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-3	67%from 60%	+6.4	n=9
+ in September	9-5	64%from 60%	+3.0	n=14

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Alabama — the basics

164 graded games since 2014

at home	49-32	60%	+1.5	n=81
as a favorite	86-69	55%	+1.4	n=155
spread 21+	38-28	58%	+1.3	n=66
out of conference	34-28	55%	+0.2	n=62
vs an FBS opponent	85-68	56%	+1.7	n=153
vs a G5 opponent	18-13	58%	+0.6	n=31
in September	24-19	56%	+2.7	n=43
at this venue	49-32	60%	+1.5	n=81
in the last 5 seasons	38-29	57%	-1.1	n=67

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Alabama — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +1.5 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 164 graded games: +1.3 pts vs their number per game	n=164

Alabama — combinations

237 lean Alabama · 2 lean against

Read this first. 255 combinations shown. The best one here is 86%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 72% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs a G5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	10-4	71%from 58%	+5.3	n=14
at home + in the last 5 seasons	24-10	71%from 60%	+2.0	n=34
at this venue + in the last 5 seasons	24-10	71%from 60%	+2.0	n=34
in September + in the last 5 seasons	12-6	67%from 56%	+2.4	n=18
at home + vs an FBS opponent	43-27	61%from 60%	+2.4	n=70
+ in the last 5 seasons	21-8	72%from 61%	+2.6	n=29
+ at this venue	43-27	61%from 61%	+2.4	n=70
+ in the last 5 seasons	21-8	72%from 61%	+2.6	n=29
+ vs a G5 opponent	11-7	61%from 61%	+4.1	n=18
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-1	86%from 61%	+13.8	n=7
+ at this venue	11-7	61%from 61%	+4.1	n=18
+ in September	10-7	59%from 61%	+2.6	n=17
+ in September	15-12	56%from 61%	+1.2	n=27
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-2	82%from 56%	+7.5	n=11
+ at this venue	15-12	56%from 56%	+1.2	n=27
vs an FBS opponent + at this venue	43-27	61%from 56%	+2.4	n=70
+ in the last 5 seasons	21-8	72%from 61%	+2.6	n=29
at home + at this venue	49-32	60%from 60%	+1.5	n=81
+ in the last 5 seasons	24-10	71%from 60%	+2.0	n=34
at home + as a favorite	48-32	60%from 60%	+1.4	n=80
+ in the last 5 seasons	23-10	70%from 60%	+1.7	n=33
+ vs an FBS opponent	42-27	61%from 60%	+2.3	n=69
+ in the last 5 seasons	20-8	71%from 61%	+2.4	n=28
+ vs a G5 opponent	11-7	61%from 61%	+4.1	n=18
+ at this venue	42-27	61%from 61%	+2.3	n=69
+ in September	14-12	54%from 61%	+0.9	n=26
+ at this venue	48-32	60%from 60%	+1.4	n=80
+ in the last 5 seasons	23-10	70%from 60%	+1.7	n=33
+ spread 21+	30-21	59%from 60%	+1.2	n=51
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-6	67%from 59%	+2.4	n=18
+ vs an FBS opponent	24-16	60%from 59%	+2.6	n=40
+ at this venue	30-21	59%from 59%	+1.2	n=51
+ vs a G5 opponent	17-12	59%from 59%	+1.0	n=29
+ out of conference	18-13	58%from 59%	+1.0	n=31
+ in September	11-11	50%from 59%	+0.9	n=22
+ vs a G5 opponent	17-12	59%from 60%	+1.0	n=29
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-3	75%from 59%	+7.2	n=12
+ at this venue	17-12	59%from 59%	+1.0	n=29
+ in September	10-8	56%from 59%	+1.4	n=18
+ out of conference	19-14	58%from 60%	+0.6	n=33
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-4	73%from 58%	+5.3	n=15
+ vs an FBS opponent	13-9	59%from 58%	+2.8	n=22
+ vs a G5 opponent	17-12	59%from 58%	+1.0	n=29
+ at this venue	19-14	58%from 58%	+0.6	n=33
+ in September	11-10	52%from 58%	+0.4	n=21
+ in September	14-13	52%from 60%	+0.2	n=27
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-3	73%from 52%	+4.8	n=11
+ at this venue	14-13	52%from 52%	+0.2	n=27

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.