Playoff Odds & Projections

2026 season forecast · 12-team CFP · ST Model

FBS FCS

National Title Favorites

Projected CFP Bracket

projected seeds · favorites advance

First-round byes1TTU2ND3IU4OSU

First Round

8MIA48%

9MISS52%

5UGA81%

12JMU19%

6ORE68%

11TA&M32%

7UTAH66%

10PSU34%

Quarterfinals

1TTU59%

9MISS41%

4OSU65%

5UGA35%

3IU66%

6ORE34%

2ND56%

7UTAH45%

Semifinals

1TTU44%

4OSU56%

3IU69%

2ND31%

Championship

4OSU44%

3IU56%

Champion

Indiana

Big Ten

Team	W	Conf	CFP%	SF	Champ
Indiana	9.68–11	36%	89%	60%	28%
Ohio State	9.58–11	29%	83%	50%	18%
Oregon	9.68–11	19%	79%	36%	9%
Penn State	9.17–11	6%	42%	9%	1%
USC	8.67–10	4%	26%	4%	<1%
Iowa	8.36–10	4%	25%	5%	1%
Washington	7.66–9	2%	11%	2%	<1%
Illinois	7.56–9	1%	5%	<1%	<1%
Michigan	7.56–9	1%	4%	<1%	<1%
Nebraska	5.74–7	<1%	<1%	0%	0%
Minnesota	5.64–8	<1%	<1%	0%	0%
Rutgers	5.64–7	<1%	<1%	0%	0%
Northwestern	5.84–8	<1%	0%	0%	0%
Wisconsin	5.43–7	0%	0%	0%	0%
Maryland	5.03–7	0%	0%	0%	0%
UCLA	4.63–7	0%	0%	0%	0%
Purdue	3.92–6	0%	0%	0%	0%
Michigan State	3.82–6	0%	0%	0%	0%

SEC

Team	W	Conf	CFP%	SF	Champ
Georgia	9.98–11	44%	82%	35%	7%
Ole Miss	8.67–10	18%	47%	17%	3%
Texas A&M	8.87–11	14%	42%	11%	1%
Vanderbilt	8.36–10	7%	26%	6%	1%
Oklahoma	7.96–10	6%	16%	3%	<1%
Tennessee	8.06–10	4%	14%	2%	<1%
Texas	7.56–9	3%	9%	1%	<1%
Alabama	7.55–9	3%	9%	1%	<1%
Missouri	6.34–8	<1%	2%	<1%	0%
Auburn	6.55–8	<1%	1%	<1%	0%
LSU	6.55–9	1%	1%	0%	0%
South Carolina	6.14–8	<1%	<1%	0%	0%
Florida	5.03–7	<1%	<1%	0%	0%
Mississippi State	5.13–7	0%	0%	0%	0%
Arkansas	4.53–6	0%	0%	0%	0%
Kentucky	4.43–6	0%	0%	0%	0%

Big 12

Team	W	Conf	CFP%	SF	Champ
Texas Tech	10.29–12	57%	92%	54%	16%
Utah	9.68–11	28%	71%	24%	4%
BYU	8.26–10	7%	19%	2%	<1%
Arizona	7.56–9	2%	5%	<1%	<1%
Kansas State	7.56–10	1%	3%	<1%	0%
Houston	7.66–9	1%	3%	<1%	0%
Kansas	7.35–9	1%	1%	0%	0%
Iowa State	6.65–9	1%	1%	<1%	0%
TCU	6.75–9	<1%	1%	<1%	0%
Arizona State	6.14–8	<1%	<1%	0%	0%
Baylor	5.84–8	<1%	<1%	0%	0%
UCF	5.43–7	<1%	<1%	0%	0%
Cincinnati	5.13–7	<1%	<1%	0%	0%
West Virginia	4.83–7	0%	0%	0%	0%
Colorado	4.32–6	<1%	0%	0%	0%
Oklahoma State	3.22–5	0%	0%	0%	0%

ACC

Team	W	Conf	CFP%	SF	Champ
Miami	9.78–11	56%	75%	21%	3%
SMU	8.67–10	16%	22%	2%	<1%
Virginia	8.47–10	8%	14%	1%	<1%
Louisville	7.66–10	7%	9%	<1%	0%
Clemson	8.06–10	4%	7%	<1%	0%
Pittsburgh	7.45–9	3%	3%	<1%	0%
Georgia Tech	7.35–9	3%	3%	<1%	0%
Florida State	7.15–9	1%	2%	<1%	0%
NC State	7.45–9	2%	2%	<1%	0%
Duke	5.84–8	<1%	<1%	0%	0%
Wake Forest	5.84–8	<1%	<1%	0%	0%
California	5.74–8	<1%	<1%	0%	0%
Virginia Tech	5.13–7	<1%	0%	0%	0%
Boston College	3.92–6	0%	0%	0%	0%
Stanford	3.72–6	0%	0%	0%	0%
North Carolina	3.52–5	0%	0%	0%	0%
Syracuse	3.42–5	0%	0%	0%	0%

FBS Independents

Team	W	Conf	CFP%	SF	Champ
Notre Dame	10.59–12	0%	93%	45%	9%
UConn	7.86–10	0%	3%	<1%	0%

Pac-12

Team	W	Conf	CFP%	SF	Champ
San Diego State	7.15–9	34%	2%	<1%	0%
Boise State	6.44–8	19%	<1%	<1%	0%
Washington State	6.34–8	21%	<1%	0%	0%
Fresno State	6.24–8	9%	<1%	0%	0%
Texas State	6.14–8	14%	0%	0%	0%
Utah State	4.63–6	2%	0%	0%	0%
Oregon State	4.02–6	<1%	0%	0%	0%
Colorado State	3.52–5	<1%	0%	0%	0%

American Athletic

Team	W	Conf	CFP%	SF	Champ
South Florida	9.17–11	23%	31%	3%	<1%
North Texas	8.16–10	22%	17%	1%	<1%
Navy	7.86–10	17%	7%	<1%	0%
Memphis	7.86–10	9%	6%	<1%	0%
East Carolina	7.76–10	10%	6%	<1%	0%
Tulane	7.66–9	7%	4%	<1%	0%
UTSA	7.56–9	6%	2%	<1%	0%
Army	7.25–9	4%	1%	0%	0%
Tulsa	5.13–7	0%	0%	0%	0%
Temple	4.93–7	<1%	0%	0%	0%
Florida Atlantic	4.83–7	<1%	0%	0%	0%
UAB	4.12–6	0%	0%	0%	0%
Rice	3.01–5	0%	0%	0%	0%
Charlotte	2.71–4	0%	0%	0%	0%

Mountain West

Team	W	Conf	CFP%	SF	Champ
UNLV	7.66–10	28%	4%	<1%	0%
Hawai'i	7.96–10	24%	3%	<1%	0%
New Mexico	7.66–9	19%	1%	<1%	0%
Air Force	7.96–10	17%	1%	0%	0%
North Dakota State	6.95–9	10%	<1%	0%	0%
San José State	5.03–7	1%	0%	0%	0%
Nevada	4.93–7	<1%	0%	0%	0%
Wyoming	4.83–7	<1%	0%	0%	0%
Northern Illinois	4.53–6	<1%	0%	0%	0%
UTEP	3.32–5	0%	0%	0%	0%

Sun Belt

Team	W	Conf	CFP%	SF	Champ
James Madison	8.97–11	54%	35%	3%	<1%
Old Dominion	7.55–9	19%	5%	<1%	0%
Marshall	7.56–9	10%	<1%	0%	0%
Louisiana Tech	6.55–8	6%	<1%	0%	0%
Troy	6.75–9	4%	<1%	0%	0%
Louisiana	6.85–9	2%	<1%	0%	0%
Arkansas State	6.04–8	1%	0%	0%	0%
South Alabama	5.54–7	1%	0%	0%	0%
Southern Miss	5.53–7	2%	0%	0%	0%
Georgia Southern	5.23–7	1%	0%	0%	0%
App State	5.03–7	<1%	0%	0%	0%
Coastal Carolina	4.83–7	<1%	0%	0%	0%
Georgia State	4.32–6	0%	0%	0%	0%
UL Monroe	3.32–5	0%	0%	0%	0%

Mid-American

Team	W	Conf	CFP%	SF	Champ
Toledo	9.17–11	53%	26%	1%	0%
Western Michigan	7.45–9	14%	1%	0%	0%
Miami (OH)	7.56–9	16%	1%	0%	0%
Ohio	6.75–9	6%	<1%	0%	0%
Buffalo	6.55–8	3%	<1%	0%	0%
Central Michigan	6.24–8	3%	0%	0%	0%
Eastern Michigan	6.14–8	2%	0%	0%	0%
Bowling Green	5.54–7	2%	0%	0%	0%
Sacramento State	5.14–7	1%	0%	0%	0%
Akron	5.03–7	<1%	0%	0%	0%
Ball State	4.43–6	<1%	0%	0%	0%
Kent State	3.52–5	<1%	0%	0%	0%
Massachusetts	3.02–4	0%	0%	0%	0%

Conference USA

Team	W	Conf	CFP%	SF	Champ
Western Kentucky	7.46–9	44%	1%	0%	0%
Jacksonville State	7.25–9	19%	<1%	0%	0%
Liberty	7.35–9	14%	<1%	0%	0%
Kennesaw State	6.14–8	9%	<1%	0%	0%
Florida International	6.24–8	7%	0%	0%	0%
Delaware	5.33–7	2%	0%	0%	0%
Middle Tennessee	5.23–7	2%	0%	0%	0%
Missouri State	5.23–7	3%	0%	0%	0%
New Mexico State	4.43–6	1%	0%	0%	0%
Sam Houston	3.42–5	<1%	0%	0%	0%

Playoff Field Odds

12 make the CFP · + bubble

#	Team	Make %
1	Notre Dame	93%
2	Texas Tech	92%
3	Indiana	89%
4	Ohio State	83%
5	Georgia	82%
6	Oregon	79%
7	Miami	75%
8	Utah	71%
9	Ole Miss	47%
10	Penn State	42%
11	Texas A&M	42%
12	James Madison	35%
playoff cut
13	South Florida	31%
14	Vanderbilt	26%
15	Toledo	26%
16	USC	26%
17	Iowa	25%
18	SMU	22%
19	BYU	19%
20	North Texas	17%
21	Oklahoma	16%
22	Virginia	14%
23	Tennessee	14%
24	Washington	11%
25	Texas	9%

Playoff Field Odds

12 make the CFP · + bubble

#	Team	Make %
1	Notre Dame	93%
2	Texas Tech	92%
3	Indiana	89%
4	Ohio State	83%
5	Georgia	82%
6	Oregon	79%
7	Miami	75%
8	Utah	71%
9	Ole Miss	47%
10	Penn State	42%
11	Texas A&M	42%
12	James Madison	35%
playoff cut
13	South Florida	31%
14	Vanderbilt	26%
15	Toledo	26%
16	USC	26%
17	Iowa	25%
18	SMU	22%
19	BYU	19%
20	North Texas	17%
21	Oklahoma	16%
22	Virginia	14%
23	Tennessee	14%
24	Washington	11%
25	Texas	9%

Big Ten

Team	W	Conf	CFP%	SF	Champ
Indiana	9.68–11	36%	89%	60%	28%
Ohio State	9.58–11	29%	83%	50%	18%
Oregon	9.68–11	19%	79%	36%	9%
Penn State	9.17–11	6%	42%	9%	1%
USC	8.67–10	4%	26%	4%	<1%
Iowa	8.36–10	4%	25%	5%	1%
Washington	7.66–9	2%	11%	2%	<1%
Illinois	7.56–9	1%	5%	<1%	<1%
Michigan	7.56–9	1%	4%	<1%	<1%
Nebraska	5.74–7	<1%	<1%	0%	0%
Minnesota	5.64–8	<1%	<1%	0%	0%
Rutgers	5.64–7	<1%	<1%	0%	0%
Northwestern	5.84–8	<1%	0%	0%	0%
Wisconsin	5.43–7	0%	0%	0%	0%
Maryland	5.03–7	0%	0%	0%	0%
UCLA	4.63–7	0%	0%	0%	0%
Purdue	3.92–6	0%	0%	0%	0%
Michigan State	3.82–6	0%	0%	0%	0%

SEC

Team	W	Conf	CFP%	SF	Champ
Georgia	9.98–11	44%	82%	35%	7%
Ole Miss	8.67–10	18%	47%	17%	3%
Texas A&M	8.87–11	14%	42%	11%	1%
Vanderbilt	8.36–10	7%	26%	6%	1%
Oklahoma	7.96–10	6%	16%	3%	<1%
Tennessee	8.06–10	4%	14%	2%	<1%
Texas	7.56–9	3%	9%	1%	<1%
Alabama	7.55–9	3%	9%	1%	<1%
Missouri	6.34–8	<1%	2%	<1%	0%
Auburn	6.55–8	<1%	1%	<1%	0%
LSU	6.55–9	1%	1%	0%	0%
South Carolina	6.14–8	<1%	<1%	0%	0%
Florida	5.03–7	<1%	<1%	0%	0%
Mississippi State	5.13–7	0%	0%	0%	0%
Arkansas	4.53–6	0%	0%	0%	0%
Kentucky	4.43–6	0%	0%	0%	0%

Big 12

Team	W	Conf	CFP%	SF	Champ
Texas Tech	10.29–12	57%	92%	54%	16%
Utah	9.68–11	28%	71%	24%	4%
BYU	8.26–10	7%	19%	2%	<1%
Arizona	7.56–9	2%	5%	<1%	<1%
Kansas State	7.56–10	1%	3%	<1%	0%
Houston	7.66–9	1%	3%	<1%	0%
Kansas	7.35–9	1%	1%	0%	0%
Iowa State	6.65–9	1%	1%	<1%	0%
TCU	6.75–9	<1%	1%	<1%	0%
Arizona State	6.14–8	<1%	<1%	0%	0%
Baylor	5.84–8	<1%	<1%	0%	0%
UCF	5.43–7	<1%	<1%	0%	0%
Cincinnati	5.13–7	<1%	<1%	0%	0%
West Virginia	4.83–7	0%	0%	0%	0%
Colorado	4.32–6	<1%	0%	0%	0%
Oklahoma State	3.22–5	0%	0%	0%	0%

ACC

Team	W	Conf	CFP%	SF	Champ
Miami	9.78–11	56%	75%	21%	3%
SMU	8.67–10	16%	22%	2%	<1%
Virginia	8.47–10	8%	14%	1%	<1%
Louisville	7.66–10	7%	9%	<1%	0%
Clemson	8.06–10	4%	7%	<1%	0%
Pittsburgh	7.45–9	3%	3%	<1%	0%
Georgia Tech	7.35–9	3%	3%	<1%	0%
Florida State	7.15–9	1%	2%	<1%	0%
NC State	7.45–9	2%	2%	<1%	0%
Duke	5.84–8	<1%	<1%	0%	0%
Wake Forest	5.84–8	<1%	<1%	0%	0%
California	5.74–8	<1%	<1%	0%	0%
Virginia Tech	5.13–7	<1%	0%	0%	0%
Boston College	3.92–6	0%	0%	0%	0%
Stanford	3.72–6	0%	0%	0%	0%
North Carolina	3.52–5	0%	0%	0%	0%
Syracuse	3.42–5	0%	0%	0%	0%