Toledo Rockets
Mid-American
0-0 (0-0 conf)
SP+ #48
Ratings
2025 final
- SP+
- 6.0 (#48)
- SP+ Offense
- 25.8
- SP+ Defense
- 18.5
- SRS
- 6.2
- FPI
- 4.3
- Elo
- 1646
- Talent
- 620
- Recruiting
- 163 (#121)
2026 Outlook
Projected wins
9.1p10 7.0 — p90 11.0
| Round | Prob | |
|---|---|---|
| Win conference | 53.1% | |
| Make CFP | 26.2% | |
| Quarterfinal | 5.1% | |
| Semifinal | 0.6% | |
| Natl. final | 0.0% | |
| Natl. champ | 0.0% |
Schedule
proj record 9.3–2.7
Schedule
134th
toughest of 136
Offenses faced
134th
toughest of 136
Defenses faced
117th
toughest of 136
Strength of schedule — how tough this team's opponents are, ranked 1 (hardest) to 136 (easiest) · by 2025 SP+ · 2 FCS games.
| Wk | Opponent | SP+ | Score | Proj | Win% | Res |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @Michigan State | -3.4 | 34-26 | +7.4 | 67% | — |
| 2 | vsCentral Connecticut | FCS | 45-3* | +42.2 | 100% | — |
| 3 | vsTemple | -5.1 | 40-22 | +17.9 | 86% | — |
| 4 | vsSan Diego State | +6.7 | 28-22 | +6.8 | 66% | — |
| 5 | @Ball State | -23 | 39-20 | +18.9 | 87% | — |
| 6 | vsBuffalo | -7.5 | 36-18 | +18.3 | 87% | — |
| 7 | @Eastern Michigan | -14.7 | 35-26 | +8.7 | 70% | — |
| 8 | vsWestern Michigan | -1.4 | 28-22 | +5.9 | 64% | — |
| 10 | @Sacramento State | FCS | 25-24 | +0.8 | 52% | — |
| 11 | vsMassachusetts | -36.6 | 49-11 | +37.2 | 99% | — |
| 12 | vsBowling Green | -12.6 | 35-20 | +15.3 | 82% | — |
| 13 | @Ohio | -4 | 31-24 | +6.7 | 66% | — |
* FBS-vs-FCS estimate from the SP+ gap — no per-game model for FCS opponents.
Quarterbacks · 4
2026 · 79
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 1st | Tucker Gleason | SR | 6'3" | 245 | — |
| QB | 2nd | John Alan Richter | JR | 6'3" | 225 | ★★★ |
| QB | 3rd | Jake DeHaan | SO | 6'2" | 203 | — |
| QB | — | Khamoni Robinson← Lenoir-Rhyne | — | — | — | ★★★ |
Running Backs · 11
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 1st | Chip Trayanum | SR | 5'11" | 227 | ★★★★ |
| RB | 2nd | Kenji Christian | JR | 6'2" | 207 | — |
| RB | 3rd | Connor Walendzak | JR | 5'11" | 208 | ★★★ |
| RB | 4th | Corey Smith← Penn State | FR | 5'10" | 193 | ★★★ |
| RB | 5th | Willie Shaw III | SR | 5'11" | 202 | — |
| RB | 6th | Mike Drennen II | JR | 5'11" | 208 | — |
| RB | 7th | Dane Nauman | FR | 6'0" | 210 | — |
| RB | 8th | Shawn Simeon | FR | 5'10" | 180 | ★★★ |
| RB | 9th | Lucas Laroche | SR | 5'10" | 193 | — |
| RB | — | Autavius Ison← Mercer | — | — | — | ★★★ |
| RB | — | CJ Miller← Mercer | — | — | — | ★★★ |
Wide Receivers · 12
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 1st | Junior Vandeross III | SR | 5'8" | 182 | ★★★ |
| WR | 2nd | Trayvon Rudolph | SR | 5'10" | 187 | ★★★ |
| WR | 3rd | Bryson Hammer | SO | 5'11" | 180 | — |
| WR | 4th | Terrell Crosby Jr. | JR | 5'10" | 182 | ★★★ |
| WR | 5th | Eric Holley III | SR | 6'2" | 210 | ★★★ |
| WR | 6th | Tashi Braceful | FR | 6'2" | 187 | — |
| WR | 7th | Cooper Rusk | JR | 5'10" | 190 | — |
| WR | 8th | Daryl Barnett Jr. | FR | 6'2" | 195 | — |
| WR | 9th | Anthony Simpson← Michigan | SR | 5'11" | 186 | ★★★ |
| WR | — | Rico Bond← Lindenwood | — | — | — | ★★★ |
| WR | — | Adjatay Dabbs← Mercer | — | — | — | ★★★ |
| WR | — | Kalvin Gilbert Jr.← Southeast Missouri State | — | — | — | ★★★ |
Tight Ends · 6
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TE | 1st | Jacob Petersen | SR | 6'4" | 250 | — |
| TE | 2nd | Sam Lee | JR | 6'6" | 238 | — |
| TE | 3rd | Jake Newell← Akron | JR | 6'4" | 240 | ★★★ |
| TE | 4th | Connor Jones | SR | 6'2" | 235 | ★★★ |
| TE | — | Tucker Kelleher← BYU | FR | 6'6" | 225 | ★★★ |
| TE | — | Ethan Malafa← Butler | — | — | — | — |
Offensive Line · 3
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OL | — | Stephen Gales | JR | 6'6" | 290 | ★★★ |
| OT | — | Dylan Senda← Auburn | SO | 6'5" | 303 | ★★★ |
| OT | — | Nick Thomas← Rhode Island | — | — | — | ★★★ |
Defensive Line · 14
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DE | 1st | Anthony Dunn Jr. | SR | 6'4" | 262 | — |
| DE | 2nd | Louce Julien | SR | 6'2" | 260 | ★★★ |
| DE | 3rd | Travion Ford | JR | 6'4" | 250 | ★★★★ |
| DL | 1st | Lucas Lambert-Pipkin | SO | 6'2" | 285 | — |
| DL | 2nd | Wayne Peart II | FR | 6'4" | 265 | ★★★ |
| DL | — | Caden Camese← Mercer | — | — | — | ★★★ |
| DT | 1st | Martez Poynter | SR | 6'4" | 290 | ★★★ |
| DT | 2nd | Esean Carter | SR | 6'2" | 285 | ★★★ |
| DT | 3rd | Doran Ray Jr. | SR | 6'2" | 286 | ★★★ |
| DT | 4th | Nate Chandler | SR | 6'4" | 269 | — |
| EDGE | 1st | Ezra Odinjor← UAB | SO | 6'3" | 240 | ★★★ |
| EDGE | 2nd | Zach Johnson← UAB | FR | 6'3" | 240 | ★★★ |
| EDGE | — | Andrew Zock← Mercer | — | — | — | ★★★ |
| EDGE | — | Ben Sahakian← Cornell | — | — | — | ★★★ |
Linebackers · 6
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LB | 1st | Jeremiah Peters | SR | 6'4" | 226 | ★★★ |
| LB | 2nd | Langston Long | JR | 6'3" | 225 | — |
| LB | 3rd | Isaac Zay | FR | 6'3" | 225 | — |
| LB | 4th | Sam Smith Jr. | SO | 6'4" | 223 | — |
| LB | 5th | Maddox Arnold | FR | 6'2" | 225 | ★★★ |
| LB | — | Kari Jackson← Penn State | FR | 6'1" | 237 | ★★★ |
Defensive Backs · 18
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CB | 1st | Avery Smith | SR | 5'10" | 185 | ★★★ |
| CB | 2nd | Andrew Wilson-Lamp | SR | 6'3" | 186 | ★★★ |
| CB | 3rd | Hyajah Miller | FR | 6'2" | 175 | ★★★ |
| CB | — | Donovan Watkins← Mercer | — | — | — | ★★★ |
| CB | — | LaDavion Osborn← Northern Colorado | — | — | — | ★★★ |
| CB | — | KJ Thomas← Mercer | — | — | — | ★★★ |
| CB | — | Cam Jones← Holy Cross | — | — | — | ★★★ |
| CB | — | Mo Conteh← Ohio Dominican | — | — | — | ★★★ |
| CB | — | Israel Petite← Robert Morris | — | — | — | ★★ |
| DB | 1st | Nasir Bowers | SR | 5'9" | 182 | ★★★ |
| DB | 2nd | Braedyn Moore | SO | 6'2" | 204 | ★★★★ |
| S | 1st | Armorion Smith← Michigan State | SR | 6'1" | 212 | ★★★ |
| S | 2nd | Nicholas Thompson | SO | 6'2" | 206 | ★★★ |
| S | 3rd | Dylan Hohler | SO | 6'4" | 196 | — |
| S | 4th | Eric Williams | SO | 5'11" | 193 | — |
| S | 5th | Tyler Hackenbracht | FR | 6'2" | 210 | ★★★ |
| S | 6th | Andrew Fineske | FR | 6'1" | 190 | — |
| S | — | Kaleb Hutchinson← Mercer | — | — | — | ★★★ |
Special Teams · 5
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K | — | Reice Griffith← Mercer | — | — | — | — |
| LS | — | Max Allen← Mercer | — | — | — | — |
| P | — | Markus Meincke← Mercer | — | — | — | — |
| PK | 1st | Emilio Duran | JR | 6'0" | 195 | — |
| PK | — | Anthony Ruggles | FR | 5'9" | 170 | — |
Projected Season
2026 · win prob / game
Exp. Wins
9.3
Exp. Losses
2.7
Toss-ups
1
bars: model win probabilityfav / toss-up / dog
2025 · pct vs FBS
SP+ Off
25.846
Off PPA
+0.2071
Pass PPA
+0.3372
Rush PPA
+0.1251
Success
45%69
Explosive
1.2137
PlayerMedian (50th)percentile vs league
Advanced
2025 · opponent-adjusted PPA / play
| Split | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.20 | -0.08 |
| Passing | +0.33 | -0.08 |
| Rushing | +0.12 | -0.03 |
| 1st Down | +0.16 | -0.18 |
| 2nd Down | +0.17 | -0.03 |
| 3rd Down | +0.52 | +0.16 |
Scoring Trend
2025 · pts/game
PPG For
31.6
PPG Against
12.2
Differential
+19.4
— Points for— Points against
dots: W / L2025
- Overall
- 8-4
- Home
- 6-0
- Away
- 2-4
- Conference
- 6-2
- Non-Conference
- 2-2
- One-Score (≤8)
- 0-3
- Avg Margin
- +19.4
Situational Splits
2025 · record · pts
| Split | Record | PF | PA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Venue | |||
| Home | 6-0 | 45.8 | 7.7 |
| Away | 2-4 | 17.3 | 16.7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 22.0 | 27.0 |
| Competition | |||
| vs Ranked (SP+ 25) | 0-1 | 22.0 | 27.0 |
| Conference | 6-2 | 31.4 | 9.1 |
| Non-conference | 2-3 | 30.0 | 20.0 |
Season History · last 12
0 AP top-10 · 10 postseason
| Season | Record | Conf | SP+ | AP | Post |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8-4 | 6-2 | #48 | — | 0-1 |
| 2024 | 7-5 | 4-4 | #80 | — | 1-0 |
| 2023 | 11-2 | 8-1 | #53 | #23 | 0-1 |
| 2022 | 8-5 | 6-3 | #81 | — | 1-0 |
| 2021 | 7-5 | 5-3 | #56 | — | 0-1 |
| 2020 | 4-2 | 4-2 | #86 | — | — |
| 2019 | 6-6 | 3-5 | #114 | — | — |
| 2018 | 7-5 | 5-3 | #66 | — | 0-1 |
| 2017 | 11-2 | 8-1 | #45 | — | 0-1 |
| 2016 | 9-3 | 6-2 | #26 | — | 0-1 |
| 2015 | 9-2 | 6-2 | #50 | — | 1-0 |
| 2014 | 8-4 | 7-1 | #63 | — | 1-0 |
Recent Form · last 5
4-1 SU · 3-1 ATS · O2/U2
Betting Profile
2025 · 12 w/ line
| Straight up | 8-5 |
| ATS | 8-467% |
| Over / Under | 6-6 O-U |
| — ATS splits — | |
| As favorite | 7-4 |
| As underdog | 1-0 |
| Home | 5-1 |
| Away | 3-3 |
vs closing line · splits show cover–no cover
Recruiting Classes
avg #82 · 0 blue-chip
■ 5★■ 4★■ 3★161 rated signees
| Class | Natl | Pts | 5★ | 4★ | 3★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | #121 | 163 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| 2025 | #73 | 176 | 0 | 0 | 16 |
| 2024 | #66 | 179 | 0 | 0 | 16 |
| 2023 | #102 | 132 | 0 | 0 | 11 |
| 2022 | #92 | 135 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 2021 | #67 | 163 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2020 | #69 | 164 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
| 2019 | #73 | 162 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
| 2018 | #67 | 174 | 0 | 0 | 22 |
| 2017 | #78 | 147 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
247Sports composite · class rank vs all FBS
Roster Talent
2026
Portal in 33net -5Out 38
Portal avg stars (in / out)3.0 / 3.0
Notable Portal Moves
| ▲ | Khamoni Robinson | QB | 3★ | ← Lenoir-Rhyne |
| ▲ | Rico Bond | WR | 3★ | ← Lindenwood |
| ▲ | Armorion Smith | S | 3★ | ← Michigan State |
| ▲ | Donovan Watkins | CB | 3★ | ← Mercer |
| ▼ | Braedyn Moore | S | 4★ | → — |
| ▼ | Anthony Boswell | IOL | 3★ | → Houston |
| ▼ | Cole Rhett | OT | 3★ | → Baylor |
| ▼ | Malachi Davis | EDGE | 3★ | → Rutgers |
returning PPA · portal · talent composite · 2026
Injury Report · 0
No injuries reported.
Team News
1 items
- Toledo Football Preview 2026: Mike Jacobs Will Keep the Rockets RollingToledo has maintained a consistent level of success for decades, and despite a total rebuild, there's no slowing down now.TOL22d