NC State Wolfpack
ACC
0-0 (0-0 conf)
SP+ #55
Ratings
2025 final
- SP+
- 4.8 (#55)
- SP+ Offense
- 31.4
- SP+ Defense
- 25.5
- SRS
- 7.0
- FPI
- 5.2
- Elo
- 1605
- Talent
- 708
- Recruiting
- 210 (#49)
2026 Outlook
Projected wins
7.4p10 5.0 — p90 9.0
| Round | Prob | |
|---|---|---|
| Win conference | 2.3% | |
| Make CFP | 1.9% | |
| Quarterfinal | 0.2% | |
| Semifinal | 0.1% | |
| Natl. final | 0.0% | |
| Natl. champ | 0.0% |
Schedule
proj record 7.6–4.4
Schedule
63rd
toughest of 136
Offenses faced
81st
toughest of 136
Defenses faced
63rd
toughest of 136
Strength of schedule — how tough this team's opponents are, ranked 1 (hardest) to 136 (easiest) · by 2025 SP+ · 1 FCS game.
| Wk | Opponent | SP+ | Score | Proj | Win% | Res |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @Virginia | +11.1 | 23-30 | -6.9 | 34% | — |
| 2 | vsRichmond | FCS | 45-3* | +41.8 | 100% | — |
| 3 | @Vanderbilt | +20.3 | 20-31 | -11.1 | 25% | — |
| 4 | vsApp State | -11.4 | 35-18 | +17.1 | 85% | — |
| 5 | vsLouisville | +12.4 | 27-28 | -1.6 | 46% | — |
| 6 | vsWake Forest | +5.7 | 30-23 | +7.0 | 66% | — |
| 8 | @Stanford | -11.8 | 31-21 | +9.8 | 72% | — |
| 9 | vsCalifornia | -3.2 | 36-24 | +12.3 | 77% | — |
| 10 | vsDuke | +6.6 | 29-20 | +9.2 | 71% | — |
| 11 | vsSyracuse | -13.1 | 34-21 | +13.2 | 79% | — |
| 12 | @Florida State | +7.2 | 20-28 | -7.5 | 32% | — |
| 13 | @North Carolina | -6.6 | 28-19 | +8.4 | 69% | — |
* FBS-vs-FCS estimate from the SP+ gap — no per-game model for FCS opponents.
Quarterbacks · 4
2026 · 71
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 1st | CJ Bailey | SO | 6'6" | 210 | ★★★★ |
| QB | 2nd | Tad Hudson← Coastal Carolina | SO | 6'3" | 225 | ★★★ |
| QB | 3rd | Will Wilson | FR | 6'1" | 228 | ★★★ |
| QB | 4th | Lex Thomas | SO | 5'11" | 196 | — |
Running Backs · 4
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 1st | Jayden Scott | FR | 5'10" | 214 | — |
| RB | 2nd | Davion Gause← North Carolina | SO | 5'11" | 215 | ★★★ |
| RB | 3rd | Coleson Fields | SO | 5'9" | 183 | — |
| RB | 4th | Darius Johnson | SO | 5'10" | 205 | — |
Wide Receivers · 10
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 1st | Victor Snow← Buffalo | JR | 5'8" | 168 | ★★★ |
| WR | 2nd | Davion Dozier← App State | SO | 6'4" | 205 | ★★★ |
| WR | 3rd | Wesley Grimes | SR | 6'2" | 193 | ★★★★ |
| WR | 4th | Teddy Hoffmann | FR | 6'1" | 172 | — |
| WR | 5th | Keenan Jackson | SO | 6'3" | 200 | ★★★ |
| WR | 6th | Joshisa Trader← Miami | SO | 6'1" | 180 | ★★★ |
| WR | 7th | Ethan Dowdy | JR | 6'2" | 185 | — |
| WR | 8th | Ashton Locklear | FR | 6'1" | 186 | — |
| WR | — | Chance Robinson← Miami | SO | 6'2" | 190 | ★★★ |
| WR | — | Tyran Warren← Alcorn State | — | — | — | ★★★ |
Tight Ends · 6
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TE | 1st | Cody Hardy | SR | 6'4" | 268 | — |
| TE | 2nd | Dante Daniels | SR | 6'6" | 272 | — |
| TE | 3rd | Preston Douglas | FR | 6'3" | 225 | — |
| TE | 4th | Griffin Reimer | FR | 6'5" | 260 | — |
| TE | — | Vander Ploog← Oregon | FR | 6'6" | 242 | ★★★ |
| TE | — | Hunter Provience← Montana State | — | — | — | ★★★ |
Offensive Line · 3
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OL | — | Kage Payne | FR | 6'2" | 280 | ★★★ |
| OT | — | Jimarion McCrimon← East Carolina | JR | 6'5" | 307 | ★★★ |
| OT | — | Jai'Lun Hampton← UT Martin | — | — | — | ★★★ |
Defensive Line · 10
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DE | 1st | Sabastian Harsh | SR | 6'3" | 251 | — |
| DE | 2nd | Travali Price | SR | 6'4" | 283 | ★★★★ |
| DE | 3rd | Isaiah Shirley | SO | 6'3" | 276 | — |
| DE | 4th | Chase Bond | FR | 6'4" | 272 | ★★★ |
| DE | 5th | Joseph Adedire | JR | 6'3" | 265 | ★★★ |
| DL | 1st | KaTron Evans← Marshall | SR | 6'3" | 335 | ★★★ |
| DL | 2nd | Chazz Wallace | SR | 6'2" | 317 | ★★★ |
| DL | 3rd | Josiah Victor | FR | 6'2" | 320 | ★★★ |
| DL | 4th | Adrian Farrow | FR | 6'3" | 245 | — |
| EDGE | 1st | Harvey Dyson← Tulane | JR | 6'3" | 250 | ★★★ |
Linebackers · 12
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LB | 1st | Caden Fordham | SR | 6'1" | 232 | ★★★ |
| LB | 2nd | Cian Slone | SR | 6'4" | 250 | — |
| LB | 3rd | Sean Brown | SR | 6'0" | 216 | ★★★ |
| LB | 4th | Raul Aguirre Jr.← Miami | JR | 6'2" | 233 | ★★★ |
| LB | 5th | Tra Thomas | SR | 6'3" | 228 | — |
| LB | 6th | AJ Richardson | JR | 6'1" | 245 | — |
| LB | 7th | Zane Williams | FR | 5'11" | 227 | ★★★ |
| LB | 8th | Kevon Carter | FR | 6'3" | 210 | — |
| LB | 9th | LaCorian Hodge | FR | 6'2" | 200 | — |
| LB | 10th | DaKaari Nelson← Penn State | SO | 6'3" | 234 | ★★★ |
| LB | 11th | Sterling Dixon | FR | 6'2" | 221 | ★★★★ |
| LB | 12th | Logan Foust | FR | 6'0" | 209 | — |
Defensive Backs · 16
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CB | 1st | Jackson Vick | JR | 6'0" | 182 | — |
| CB | 2nd | Devon Marshall | SR | 5'11" | 200 | — |
| CB | 3rd | Jamel Johnson | SR | 5'11" | 191 | — |
| CB | 4th | Brian Nelson II | SO | 6'0" | 191 | — |
| CB | 5th | Ty White← North Carolina | SO | 5'10" | 185 | ★★★ |
| CB | 6th | Foster Burt | JR | 6'1" | 185 | — |
| CB | 7th | Caden Gordon | FR | 6'1" | 187 | — |
| CB | — | Ondre Evans← Georgia | FR | 6'0" | 195 | ★★★ |
| DB | 1st | Asaad Brown Jr. | FR | 6'0" | 188 | — |
| S | 1st | King Mack← Penn State | JR | 5'10" | 187 | ★★★ |
| S | 2nd | Ronnie Royal III | FR | 5'9" | 185 | ★★★★ |
| S | 3rd | Brody Barnhardt | FR | 6'0" | 192 | — |
| S | 4th | Tristan Teasdell | FR | 5'11" | 180 | ★★★ |
| S | 5th | Jeremiah Johnson | SR | 5'10" | 190 | — |
| S | 6th | Zack Myers | SO | 6'1" | 202 | ★★★★ |
| S | 7th | Daemon Fagan | SO | 6'3" | 190 | ★★★★ |
Special Teams · 6
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LS | 1st | Jake Mann | SR | 5'10" | 232 | — |
| LS | 2nd | Aiden Arias | SO | 6'0" | 213 | — |
| P | 1st | Caden Noonkester | SR | 6'6" | 220 | — |
| P | — | Jackson Waller← SMU | — | — | — | — |
| PK | 1st | Kanoah Vinesett | JR | 6'1" | 207 | — |
| PK | 2nd | Nick Konieczynski | FR | 5'11" | 237 | — |
Projected Season
2026 · win prob / game
Exp. Wins
7.6
Exp. Losses
4.4
Toss-ups
1
bars: model win probabilityfav / toss-up / dog
2025 · pct vs FBS
SP+ Off
31.468
Off PPA
+0.2482
Pass PPA
+0.3576
Rush PPA
+0.1673
Success
42%51
Explosive
1.3894
PlayerMedian (50th)percentile vs league
Advanced
2025 · opponent-adjusted PPA / play
| Split | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.24 | +0.19 |
| Passing | +0.35 | +0.27 |
| Rushing | +0.16 | +0.12 |
| 1st Down | +0.04 | +0.03 |
| 2nd Down | +0.30 | +0.09 |
| 3rd Down | +0.63 | +0.77 |
Scoring Trend
2025 · pts/game
PPG For
30.2
PPG Against
28.8
Differential
+1.3
— Points for— Points against
dots: W / L2025
- Overall
- 7-5
- Home
- 6-1
- Away
- 1-4
- Conference
- 4-4
- Non-Conference
- 3-1
- One-Score (≤8)
- 2-1
- Avg Margin
- +1.3
Situational Splits
2025 · record · pts
| Split | Record | PF | PA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Venue | |||
| Home | 6-1 | 35.3 | 21.0 |
| Away | 1-4 | 23.0 | 39.8 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 31.0 | 7.0 |
| Competition | |||
| vs Ranked (SP+ 25) | 0-2 | 7.0 | 38.5 |
| Conference | 4-4 | 30.0 | 31.5 |
| Non-conference | 4-1 | 30.6 | 20.2 |
Season History · last 12
1 AP top-10 · 10 postseason
| Season | Record | Conf | SP+ | AP | Post |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7-5 | 4-4 | #55 | — | 1-0 |
| 2024 | 6-6 | 3-5 | #56 | #24 | 0-1 |
| 2023 | 9-3 | 6-2 | #39 | #19 | 0-1 |
| 2022 | 8-4 | 4-4 | #49 | #10 | 0-1 |
| 2021 | 9-3 | 6-2 | #14 | #18 | — |
| 2020 | 8-3 | 7-3 | #70 | — | 0-1 |
| 2019 | 4-8 | 1-7 | #94 | — | — |
| 2018 | 9-3 | 5-3 | #35 | — | 0-1 |
| 2017 | 8-4 | 6-2 | #24 | — | 1-0 |
| 2016 | 6-6 | 3-5 | #41 | — | 1-0 |
| 2015 | 7-5 | 3-5 | #41 | — | 0-1 |
| 2014 | 7-5 | 3-5 | #43 | — | 1-0 |
Recent Form · last 5
4-1 SU · 3-1 ATS · O2/U2
Betting Profile
2025 · 12 w/ line
| Straight up | 8-5 |
| ATS | 6-650% |
| Over / Under | 7-5 O-U |
| — ATS splits — | |
| As favorite | 4-2 |
| As underdog | 2-4 |
| Home | 5-2 |
| Away | 1-4 |
vs closing line · splits show cover–no cover
Recruiting Classes
avg #40 · 35 blue-chip
■ 5★■ 4★■ 3★136 rated signees
| Class | Natl | Pts | 5★ | 4★ | 3★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | #49 | 210 | 0 | 0 | 16 |
| 2025 | #34 | 214 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| 2024 | #27 | 225 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 2023 | #43 | 204 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 2022 | #64 | 171 | 0 | 4 | 5 |
| 2021 | #34 | 202 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| 2020 | #41 | 195 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 2019 | #31 | 217 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
| 2018 | #26 | 221 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 2017 | #53 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 11 |
247Sports composite · class rank vs all FBS
Roster Talent
2026
Portal in 20net -2Out 22
Portal avg stars (in / out)3.0 / 3.3
Notable Portal Moves
| ▲ | Hunter Provience | TE | 3★ | ← Montana State |
| ▲ | Raul Aguirre Jr. | LB | 3★ | ← Miami |
| ▲ | Joshisa Trader | WR | 3★ | ← Miami |
| ▲ | King Mack | S | 3★ | ← Penn State |
| ▼ | Jacarrius Peak | OT | 4★ | → South Carolina |
| ▼ | Hollywood Smothers | RB | 4★ | → Texas |
| ▼ | Terrell Anderson | WR | 4★ | → USC |
| ▼ | Noah Rogers | WR | 4★ | → Alabama |
returning PPA · portal · talent composite · 2026
Injury Report · 0
No injuries reported.
Team News
6 items
- NC State bets big on QB CJ Bailey: Why the payoff could be huge for Dave Doeren, Wolfpack in ACCEquipped with an All-ACC caliber QB against a favorable schedule, NC State is a legitimate dark horseNCSU5d
- How DJ Eliot's daughter continues to inspire him and his familyNC State's defensive coordinator continues to find ways to honor his daughter after she died of cancer.NCSU6d
- OL Bryson Hurt credits longtime bond with NC State in his CommitmentNC State added another key piece to its offensive line class with the commitment of Bryson Hurt, a 6-foot-4, 300-pound lineman from Gainesville (Ga.). Hurt chose Dave Doeren and the Wolfpack over West Virginia, Colorado, Georgia, Rutgers and a host of other programs after a recruiting battle that remained fluid until the end. “It was […]NCSU25d
- NC State-Virginia game relocated from Brazil back to U.S. will remain on Week Zero scheduleThe game will be played at the Cavaliers’ home field in Charlottesville, Virginia.NCSU27d
- Relocated NC State-Virginia game to remain a Week 0 contestThe NC State-Virginia football game being relocated from Brazil back to the United States will remain as a Week 0 contest, the ACC announced Tuesday.NCSU27d
- UVA’s football opener against NC State will still be played Week 0Virginia’s 2026 football opener against NC State will retain its Aug. 29 date in Week 0, the schools and the ACC announced Tuesday. Scheduled to kick off at 3:30 p.m. in Charlottesville, the contest was originally set for Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, as the first college football game ever staged in South America. But event organizers and the schools abandoned those plans earlier this month. UVA-NC ...NCSU27d