North Carolina Tar Heels
ACC
0-0 (0-0 conf)
SP+ #91
Ratings
2025 final
- SP+
- -6.6 (#91)
- SP+ Offense
- 17.2
- SP+ Defense
- 25.0
- SRS
- -6.7
- FPI
- -5.9
- Elo
- 1320
- Talent
- 753
- Recruiting
- 248 (#19)
2026 Outlook
Projected wins
3.5p10 2.0 — p90 5.0
| Round | Prob | |
|---|---|---|
| Win conference | 0.0% | |
| Make CFP | 0.0% | |
| Quarterfinal | 0.0% | |
| Semifinal | 0.0% | |
| Natl. final | 0.0% | |
| Natl. champ | 0.0% |
Schedule
proj record 3.6–8.4
Schedule
23rd
toughest of 136
Offenses faced
15th
toughest of 136
Defenses faced
32nd
toughest of 136
Strength of schedule — how tough this team's opponents are, ranked 1 (hardest) to 136 (easiest) · by 2025 SP+ · 1 FCS game.
| Wk | Opponent | SP+ | Score | Proj | Win% | Res |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NTCU | +8.3 | 19-33 | -14.3 | 19% | — |
| 2 | vsEast Tennessee State | FCS | 43-5* | +38.4 | 99% | — |
| 3 | @Clemson | +9.5 | 14-35 | -21.4 | 10% | — |
| 5 | vsNotre Dame | +24.4 | 7-36 | -29.8 | 4% | — |
| 6 | @Pittsburgh | +8.4 | 19-32 | -13.1 | 21% | — |
| 7 | @Duke | +6.6 | 22-31 | -9.9 | 28% | — |
| 8 | vsSyracuse | -13.1 | 27-21 | +6.0 | 64% | — |
| 9 | vsMiami | +20.7 | 13-34 | -20.7 | 10% | — |
| 10 | @UConn | +5.1 | 24-29 | -4.7 | 39% | — |
| 11 | vsLouisville | +12.4 | 19-33 | -14.2 | 19% | — |
| 12 | @Virginia | +11.1 | 17-32 | -15.5 | 17% | — |
| 13 | vsNC State | +4.8 | 19-28 | -8.4 | 31% | — |
* FBS-vs-FCS estimate from the SP+ gap — no per-game model for FCS opponents.
Quarterbacks · 4
2026 · 62
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 1st | Miles O'Neill← Texas A&M | FR | 6'5" | 220 | ★★★ |
| QB | 2nd | Billy Edwards Jr.← Wisconsin | SR | 6'3" | 228 | ★★★ |
| QB | 3rd | Au'Tori Newkirk | FR | 6'3" | 200 | — |
| QB | — | Taron Dickens← Western Carolina | — | — | — | ★★★ |
Running Backs · 6
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 1st | Demon June | FR | 5'11" | 215 | — |
| RB | 2nd | Benjamin Hall | SO | 5'11" | 235 | — |
| RB | 3rd | Jaylen McGill | FR | 5'10" | 200 | ★★★ |
| RB | 4th | Caleb Hood | SR | 6'0" | 220 | — |
| RB | 5th | Kaleb Jackson← LSU | JR | 6'0" | 234 | ★★★ |
| RB | 6th | Charleston French | SO | 5'9" | 205 | — |
Wide Receivers · 8
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 1st | Jordan Shipp | SO | 6'2" | 190 | ★★★★ |
| WR | 2nd | Kobe Paysour | SR | 6'1" | 190 | ★★★ |
| WR | 3rd | Trech Kekahuna← Wisconsin | SO | 5'10" | 185 | ★★★ |
| WR | 4th | Shanard Clower | FR | 5'9" | 165 | ★★★ |
| WR | 5th | Nathan Leacock | SO | 6'3" | 217 | ★★★★ |
| WR | 6th | Madrid Tucker | FR | 5'10" | 170 | ★★★ |
| WR | 7th | Aziah Johnson | SO | 6'0" | 175 | — |
| WR | — | Mason Humphrey← Lehigh | — | — | — | ★★★ |
Tight Ends · 5
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TE | 1st | Jordan Washington← Texas | SO | 6'4" | 264 | ★★★ |
| TE | 2nd | Jaxxon Warren← Colorado State | SO | 6'8" | 240 | ★★★ |
| TE | 3rd | Jelani Thurman← Ohio State | JR | 6'6" | 250 | ★★★ |
| TE | 4th | Jordan Owens | SR | 6'6" | 255 | — |
| TE | 5th | Shamar Easter | FR | 6'5" | 215 | ★★★★ |
Offensive Line · 2
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OL | — | Aidan Banfield | SO | 6'3" | 300 | — |
| OT | — | Shaq McRoy← Arkansas | FR | 6'8" | 362 | ★★★ |
Defensive Line · 13
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DL | 1st | Melkart Abou-Jaoude | JR | 6'5" | 260 | — |
| DL | 2nd | Isaiah Johnson | JR | 6'2" | 275 | — |
| DL | 3rd | Leroy Jackson | FR | 6'1" | 290 | — |
| DL | 4th | Smith Vilbert | SR | 6'6" | 282 | — |
| DL | 5th | Xavier Lewis | FR | 6'0" | 250 | — |
| DL | 6th | Joseph Mupoyi | FR | 6'5" | 261 | ★★★★ |
| DL | 7th | Tarvorise Brown← Florida | SO | 6'7" | 296 | ★★★ |
| DL | 8th | Pryce Yates | SR | 6'4" | 265 | ★★★ |
| DL | 9th | Nicco Maggio | FR | 6'1" | 290 | ★★★ |
| DL | 10th | Trey Giddens | FR | 6'3" | 275 | ★★★ |
| DL | 11th | Peter Pesansky | FR | 6'2" | 290 | — |
| EDGE | 1st | Jaylen Harvey← Penn State | FR | 6'2" | 251 | ★★★ |
| EDGE | — | Donovan Hoilette← Richmond | — | — | — | ★★★ |
Linebackers · 8
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LB | 1st | Andrew Simpson | SR | 6'0" | 238 | — |
| LB | 2nd | Greg Smith | FR | 6'4" | 195 | ★★★★ |
| LB | 3rd | Jonathan Agumadu | FR | 6'2" | 220 | ★★★ |
| LB | 4th | Timir Hickman-Collins | FR | 6'2" | 215 | — |
| LB | 5th | Derek McDonald← Syracuse | SR | 6'4" | 230 | ★★★ |
| LB | 6th | Daniel Anderson | FR | 6'1" | 245 | — |
| LB | 7th | Evan Bennett | FR | 6'2" | 230 | — |
| LB | — | Peyton Seelmann← Richmond | — | — | — | ★★★ |
Defensive Backs · 13
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CB | 1st | Ade Willie← Michigan State | SR | 6'1" | 190 | ★★★ |
| DB | 1st | Will Hardy | SR | 6'2" | 205 | — |
| DB | 2nd | Kaleb Cost | JR | 5'11" | 195 | ★★★ |
| DB | 3rd | Gavin Gibson | SR | 6'0" | 185 | — |
| DB | 4th | Marcus Allen | SR | 6'2" | 190 | — |
| DB | 5th | Jaiden Patterson | SO | 6'1" | 195 | ★★★★ |
| DB | 6th | Thaddeus Dixon | SR | 6'1" | 185 | — |
| DB | 7th | Coleman Bryson | JR | 6'2" | 210 | ★★★ |
| DB | 8th | Tre Miller | SO | 5'10" | 180 | ★★★ |
| DB | 9th | Jalon Thompson | SO | 5'11" | 185 | ★★★★ |
| DB | 10th | Javion Butts | FR | 6'1" | 175 | — |
| DB | 11th | Peyton Waters | SO | 6'1" | 185 | ★★★★ |
| DB | — | Reggie Love II | SO | 5'8" | 175 | — |
Special Teams · 3
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K | 1st | Aeron Burrell← LSU | SO | 6'2" | 190 | ★★★ |
| P | 1st | Tom Maginness | SR | 6'0" | 210 | — |
| PK | 1st | Rece Verhoff | SR | 5'11" | 190 | — |
Projected Season
2026 · win prob / game
Exp. Wins
3.6
Exp. Losses
8.4
Toss-ups
0
bars: model win probabilityfav / toss-up / dog
2025 · pct vs FBS
SP+ Off
17.210
Off PPA
+0.0613
Pass PPA
+0.1828
Rush PPA
-0.027
Success
39%18
Explosive
1.1615
PlayerMedian (50th)percentile vs league
Advanced
2025 · opponent-adjusted PPA / play
| Split | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.06 | +0.15 |
| Passing | +0.18 | +0.19 |
| Rushing | -0.02 | +0.10 |
| 1st Down | -0.08 | -0.03 |
| 2nd Down | -0.04 | +0.04 |
| 3rd Down | +0.40 | +0.50 |
Scoring Trend
2025 · pts/game
PPG For
19.3
PPG Against
24.5
Differential
-5.3
— Points for— Points against
dots: W / L2025
- Overall
- 4-8
- Home
- 2-4
- Away
- 2-4
- Conference
- 2-6
- Non-Conference
- 2-2
- One-Score (≤8)
- 1-3
- Avg Margin
- -5.3
Situational Splits
2025 · record · pts
| Split | Record | PF | PA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Venue | |||
| Home | 2-4 | 21.0 | 26.0 |
| Away | 2-4 | 17.5 | 23.0 |
| Competition | |||
| Conference | 2-6 | 18.4 | 25.4 |
| Non-conference | 2-2 | 21.0 | 22.8 |
Season History · last 12
2 AP top-10 · 9 postseason
| Season | Record | Conf | SP+ | AP | Post |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4-8 | 2-6 | #91 | — | — |
| 2024 | 6-6 | 3-5 | #49 | — | 0-1 |
| 2023 | 8-4 | 4-4 | #39 | #10 | 0-1 |
| 2022 | 9-4 | 6-3 | #46 | #13 | 0-1 |
| 2021 | 6-6 | 4-6 | #59 | #10 | 0-1 |
| 2020 | 8-3 | 7-3 | #11 | — | 0-1 |
| 2019 | 6-6 | 4-4 | #30 | — | 1-0 |
| 2018 | 2-9 | 1-7 | #88 | — | — |
| 2017 | 3-9 | 1-7 | #55 | — | — |
| 2016 | 8-4 | 5-3 | #17 | — | 0-1 |
| 2015 | 11-2 | 8-1 | #9 | — | 0-1 |
| 2014 | 6-6 | 4-4 | #69 | — | 0-1 |
Recent Form · last 5
2-3 SU · 1-3 ATS · O3/U2
Betting Profile
2025 · 12 w/ line
| Straight up | 4-8 |
| ATS | 5-6-145% |
| Over / Under | 5-7 O-U |
| — ATS splits — | |
| As favorite | 2-1 |
| As underdog | 3-5 |
| Home | 2-3 |
| Away | 3-3 |
vs closing line · splits show cover–no cover
Recruiting Classes
avg #25 · 77 blue-chip
■ 5★■ 4★■ 3★187 rated signees
| Class | Natl | Pts | 5★ | 4★ | 3★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | #19 | 248 | 0 | 13 | 13 |
| 2025 | #41 | 208 | 0 | 1 | 17 |
| 2024 | #26 | 229 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
| 2023 | #30 | 219 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 2022 | #11 | 259 | 2 | 8 | 2 |
| 2021 | #14 | 254 | 1 | 12 | 3 |
| 2020 | #19 | 247 | 1 | 8 | 5 |
| 2019 | #30 | 219 | 0 | 4 | 5 |
| 2018 | #20 | 232 | 0 | 7 | 15 |
| 2017 | #29 | 208 | 0 | 4 | 13 |
247Sports composite · class rank vs all FBS
Roster Talent
2026
Portal in 20net -11Out 31
Portal avg stars (in / out)3.0 / 3.1
Notable Portal Moves
| ▲ | Jelani Thurman | TE | 3★ | ← Ohio State |
| ▲ | Jordan Washington | TE | 3★ | ← Texas |
| ▲ | Trech Kekahuna | WR | 3★ | ← Wisconsin |
| ▲ | Miles O'Neill | QB | 3★ | ← Texas A&M |
| ▼ | D'Antre Robinson | DL | 4★ | → Oregon |
| ▼ | Mikai Gbayor | LB | 4★ | → Florida State |
| ▼ | Khmori House | LB | 4★ | → Arkansas |
| ▼ | CJ Mims | DL | 3★ | → Texas A&M |
returning PPA · portal · talent composite · 2026
Injury Report · 0
No injuries reported.
Team News
20 items
- Center Christo Kelly will be key for UNC’s offense to thriveKelley’s play at the center position could make or break Bobby Petrino’s offense.
- Ranking the top five wide receivers in UNC football historyWe rank the five most dynamic wide receivers in North Carolina history based on stats and big game performances.UNC11h
- Every Position Battle That Will Define North Carolina's SeasonWith training camp right around the corner, let's take a look at the most pivotal positional competitions for the Tar Heels ahead of the 2026-27 college football season.UNC1d
- Bill Belichick’s 1st college team struggled at UNC. He’s hoping lessons learned lead to more successNFL coaching great Bill Belichick spent a bumpy debut season at North Carolina trying to blend a roster full of newcomers and adjusting to life in the college ranks.UNC2d
- 5 Reasons for Optimism Ahead of UNC's 2026 CampaignIf you're looking for reasons to have hope for North Carolina football this fall, this is the right place. There are plenty of them to go on ahead of the 2026 season.UNC2d
- North Carolina 2026 Football Top 30 Countdown: No. 9Here is a look at who ranks No. 9 on the Tar Heels' 2026 roster.UNC2d
- Bill Belichick says North Carolina's culture, work ethic 'a lot different' going into second seasonBelichick says getting a head start on recruiting made a big difference in this season's roster.UNC3d
- Bill Belichick talks about building a winning culture at ACC Kickoff media sessionBill Belichick knows all about winning, at the NFL level, but now he's trying to recreate that winning culture at North Carolina. The post Bill Belichick talks about building a winning culture at ACC Kickoff media session appeared first on Saturday Down South.UNC3d
- North Carolina HC Bill Belichick Explains How Team is ImprovingAfter a dismal debut, the legendary coach is overhauling the North Carolina Tar Heels' offense by hiring Bobby Petrino to implement a familiar, pro-style system geared toward balanced dominance.UNC3d
- Bill Belichick points to offseason culture shift, continuity as UNC enters Year 2 rebuildAfter a disappointing debut season in Chapel Hill, Belichick says the Tar Heels' foundation has finally been setUNC3d
- UNC WR Jordan Shipp: ‘Everybody wanted to see Coach Belichick fail’ last seasonUNC star wide receiver Jordan Shipp was blunt about what the Tar Heels and head coach Bill Belichick were facing last season. The post UNC WR Jordan Shipp: ‘Everybody wanted to see Coach Belichick fail’ last season appeared first on Saturday Down South.
- Bill Belichick: Difference in UNC 'night and day' from year agoIn the wake of a 4-8 season with few bright spots on the field, coach Bill Belichick struck an optimistic tone about the trajectory of North Carolina's football program Friday at ACC media days.UNC3d
- Biggest Questions Facing North Carolina Entering Training CampHere are questions the Tar Heels will need to answer in the coming weeks.UNC3d
- 2026 UNC Football Player Breakdown: WR Jordan ShippJordan Shipp broke out in 2025 despite UNC’s struggling offense. Here’s how his numbers stack up and what they could mean for 2026.
- New faces, fast help: Five transfers key to UNC rebootBill Belichick is using the transfer portal to rebuild North Carolina football after a disappointing 4-8 season.UNC5d
- Sports Illustrated offers special recognition of USC's Marcus AllenMarcus Allen is certainly one of the top 50 college football players of all time, and Sports Illustrated recognized that
- Where is former LSU quarterback Max Johnson playing this year?Former LSU football QB Max Johnson has spent a long time in college football. Johnson will play for his fourth team this fall.
- North Carolina Football 2026 Top 30 Countdown: No. 12Here is a look at who ranks No. 12 on the Tar Heels' 2026 roster.UNC5d
- Andrew Body, Chance Peterson featured on Walter Payton award watch listAlabama State star Andrew Body and North Carolina Central star Chance Peterson are featuring on the Walter Payton Award watch list.UNC6d
- North Carolina Football 2026 Top 30 Countdown: No. 13Here is who ranks 13th on the Tar Heels' 2026-27 roster.UNC6d