TCU Horned Frogs
Big 12
0-0 (0-0 conf)
SP+ #37
Ratings
2025 final
- SP+
- 8.3 (#37)
- SP+ Offense
- 32.9
- SP+ Defense
- 23.9
- SRS
- 8.5
- FPI
- 9.4
- Elo
- 1670
- Talent
- 745
- Recruiting
- 213 (#47)
2026 Outlook
Projected wins
6.7p10 5.0 — p90 9.0
| Round | Prob | |
|---|---|---|
| Win conference | 0.5% | |
| Make CFP | 0.8% | |
| Quarterfinal | 0.2% | |
| Semifinal | 0.0% | |
| Natl. final | 0.0% | |
| Natl. champ | 0.0% |
Schedule
proj record 6.8–5.2
Schedule
42nd
toughest of 136
Offenses faced
33rd
toughest of 136
Defenses faced
51st
toughest of 136
Strength of schedule — how tough this team's opponents are, ranked 1 (hardest) to 136 (easiest) · by 2025 SP+ · 1 FCS game.
| Wk | Opponent | SP+ | Score | Proj | Win% | Res |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NNorth Carolina | -6.6 | 33-19 | +14.3 | 81% | — |
| 2 | vsGrambling | FCS | 46-3* | +42.9 | 100% | — |
| 3 | vsArkansas State | -8.8 | 36-13 | +23.0 | 92% | — |
| 4 | @UCF | -1.2 | 26-24 | +2.0 | 55% | — |
| 5 | vsBYU | +15.9 | 24-27 | -3.1 | 42% | — |
| 7 | @Baylor | +1.4 | 26-30 | -3.6 | 41% | — |
| 8 | vsWest Virginia | -6.8 | 31-18 | +12.3 | 77% | — |
| 9 | vsKansas | +4.1 | 26-23 | +3.5 | 58% | — |
| 10 | @Arizona | +12 | 20-27 | -6.9 | 34% | — |
| 11 | vsKansas State | +7 | 25-22 | +2.8 | 57% | — |
| 12 | vsUtah | +22.2 | 21-31 | -10.1 | 27% | — |
| 13 | @Texas Tech | +27.6 | 18-32 | -14.1 | 20% | — |
* FBS-vs-FCS estimate from the SP+ gap — no per-game model for FCS opponents.
Quarterbacks · 2
2026 · 63
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 1st | Ken Seals | SR | 6'3" | 220 | ★★★ |
| QB | — | Jaden Craig← Harvard | — | — | — | ★★★ |
Running Backs · 7
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 1st | Jeremy Payne | SO | 5'10" | 180 | ★★★★ |
| RB | 2nd | Kevorian Barnes | SR | 5'9" | 210 | ★★★ |
| RB | 3rd | Trent Battle | SR | 6'1" | 200 | — |
| RB | 4th | Jon Denman | FR | 5'10" | 195 | — |
| RB | 5th | Joe Pitchford | FR | 6'2" | 220 | — |
| RB | 6th | Franklin Estrada II | SR | 5'11" | 200 | — |
| RB | — | Landon Walker← Colorado School Of Mines | — | — | — | ★★★ |
Wide Receivers · 9
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 1st | Eric McAlister | SR | 6'3" | 205 | — |
| WR | 2nd | Jordan Dwyer | JR | 6'0" | 195 | — |
| WR | 3rd | Joseph Manjack IV | SR | 6'3" | 205 | — |
| WR | 4th | Jeremy Scott← South Alabama | FR | 6'3" | 208 | ★★★ |
| WR | 5th | Major Everhart | JR | 5'11" | 175 | ★★★ |
| WR | 6th | Ed Small | FR | 6'0" | 205 | ★★★★ |
| WR | 7th | Jacobe Hayes | FR | 5'10" | 175 | ★★★ |
| WR | 8th | Dozie Ezukanma | FR | 6'3" | 185 | ★★★ |
| WR | 9th | Terry Shelton | FR | 6'4" | 205 | ★★★★ |
Tight Ends · 4
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TE | 1st | DJ Rogers | SR | 6'4" | 250 | — |
| TE | 2nd | Chase Curtis | SR | 6'5" | 240 | — |
| TE | 3rd | Lafayette Kaiuway | SO | 6'6" | 250 | — |
| TE | 4th | Ka'Morreun Pimpton | JR | 6'6" | 242 | ★★★★ |
Offensive Line · 1
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OL | — | Coltin Deery | SR | 6'4" | 325 | — |
Defensive Line · 13
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DT | 1st | Markis Deal | SO | 6'5" | 325 | — |
| DT | 2nd | Ansel Din-Mbuh | JR | 6'3" | 291 | ★★★ |
| DT | 3rd | Tristan Johnson | FR | 6'3" | 275 | ★★★ |
| DT | 4th | Perry Cole Jr. | SO | 6'3" | 300 | — |
| DT | 5th | Connor Lingren | JR | 6'5" | 305 | — |
| DT | 6th | Sterlin Brooks | FR | 6'3" | 335 | ★★★ |
| EDGE | 1st | Devean Deal | SR | 6'4" | 250 | ★★★★ |
| EDGE | 2nd | Zach Chapman | SO | 6'5" | 255 | ★★★★ |
| EDGE | 3rd | Paul Oyewale | JR | 6'4" | 260 | ★★★ |
| EDGE | 4th | Koron Hayward← Western Kentucky | SO | 6'5" | 248 | ★★★ |
| EDGE | 5th | Travis Jackson | SO | 6'4" | 250 | ★★★★ |
| EDGE | 6th | Cheta Ofili← Texas Tech | FR | 6'4" | 230 | ★★★ |
| EDGE | 7th | Chad Woodfork | FR | 6'4" | 225 | ★★★★ |
Linebackers · 4
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LB | 1st | Max Carroll | SO | 6'3" | 225 | ★★★ |
| LB | 2nd | Michael Short← Virginia Tech | JR | 6'3" | 226 | ★★★ |
| LB | 3rd | Michael Teason | SO | 6'2" | 215 | — |
| LB | 4th | Hudson Hooper | SO | 6'2" | 235 | — |
Defensive Backs · 17
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CB | 1st | Kalen Carroll← Central Michigan | JR | 6'1" | 185 | ★★★ |
| CB | 2nd | Vernon Glover | SO | 6'1" | 205 | ★★★ |
| CB | 3rd | Channing Canada | SR | 6'1" | 185 | — |
| CB | 4th | Jevon McIver Jr. | SR | 6'1" | 185 | — |
| CB | 5th | Teon Parks← Colorado | JR | 6'1" | 180 | ★★★ |
| CB | 6th | Devondre McGee | SO | 6'2" | 180 | — |
| CB | 7th | Avery Helm | SR | 6'1" | 185 | ★★★★ |
| CB | 8th | Gil Jackson | FR | 6'3" | 185 | ★★★ |
| CB | 9th | Elijah Jackson | SR | 6'1" | 193 | — |
| S | 1st | Jacob Fields← Louisiana Tech | JR | 5'11" | 188 | ★★★ |
| S | 2nd | Jamel Johnson | JR | 6'1" | 200 | — |
| S | 3rd | Austin Jordan | SR | 6'0" | 200 | ★★★★ |
| S | 4th | Kylin Jackson | SO | 6'3" | 200 | ★★★★ |
| S | 5th | Jordan Lester | SO | 6'2" | 180 | ★★★ |
| S | 6th | Julius Simms | FR | 6'2" | 195 | — |
| S | 7th | Kaden McFadden | SO | 5'11" | 190 | — |
| S | 8th | Ryan Yaites | JR | 6'1" | 195 | ★★★★ |
Special Teams · 6
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LS | 1st | Cal Keeler | FR | 6'2" | 190 | — |
| P | 1st | John Hoyet Chance← Louisiana Tech | FR | 6'1" | 205 | — |
| P | 2nd | Ethan Craw | SR | 6'3" | 220 | ★★ |
| P | 3rd | Easton Black | JR | 6'3" | 210 | — |
| PK | 1st | Nate McCashland | SO | 5'10" | 170 | — |
| PK | 2nd | Kyle Lemmermann | SO | 6'2" | 205 | ★★★ |
Projected Season
2026 · win prob / game
Exp. Wins
6.8
Exp. Losses
5.2
Toss-ups
5
bars: model win probabilityfav / toss-up / dog
2025 · pct vs FBS
SP+ Off
32.979
Off PPA
+0.2071
Pass PPA
+0.3782
Rush PPA
+0.0631
Success
45%68
Explosive
1.2664
PlayerMedian (50th)percentile vs league
Advanced
2025 · opponent-adjusted PPA / play
| Split | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.20 | +0.14 |
| Passing | +0.37 | +0.32 |
| Rushing | +0.06 | +0.03 |
| 1st Down | -0.03 | +0.00 |
| 2nd Down | +0.14 | +0.02 |
| 3rd Down | +0.80 | +0.58 |
Scoring Trend
2025 · pts/game
PPG For
30.8
PPG Against
25.2
Differential
+5.6
— Points for— Points against
dots: W / L2025
- Overall
- 8-4
- Home
- 5-1
- Away
- 3-3
- Conference
- 5-4
- Non-Conference
- 3-0
- One-Score (≤8)
- 3-2
- Avg Margin
- +5.6
Situational Splits
2025 · record · pts
| Split | Record | PF | PA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Venue | |||
| Home | 5-1 | 36.0 | 24.2 |
| Away | 3-3 | 25.5 | 26.2 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 30.0 | 27.0 |
| Competition | |||
| vs Ranked (SP+ 25) | 2-1 | 26.0 | 31.7 |
| Conference | 5-4 | 27.1 | 27.0 |
| Non-conference | 4-0 | 38.8 | 21.5 |
Season History · last 12
1 AP top-10 · 8 postseason
| Season | Record | Conf | SP+ | AP | Post |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8-4 | 5-4 | #37 | #24 | 1-0 |
| 2024 | 8-4 | 6-3 | #25 | — | 1-0 |
| 2023 | 5-7 | 3-6 | #35 | #17 | — |
| 2022 | 12-1 | 9-1 | #6 | #2 | 1-1 |
| 2021 | 5-7 | 3-6 | #81 | — | — |
| 2020 | 6-4 | 5-4 | #58 | — | — |
| 2019 | 5-7 | 3-6 | #42 | — | — |
| 2018 | 6-6 | 4-5 | #43 | — | 1-0 |
| 2017 | 10-3 | 7-3 | #16 | — | 1-0 |
| 2016 | 6-6 | 4-5 | #34 | — | 0-1 |
| 2015 | 10-2 | 7-2 | #15 | — | 1-0 |
| 2014 | 11-1 | 8-1 | #9 | — | 1-0 |
Recent Form · last 5
3-2 SU · 2-2 ATS · O2/U2
Betting Profile
2025 · 12 w/ line
| Straight up | 9-4 |
| ATS | 6-5-155% |
| Over / Under | 6-6 O-U |
| — ATS splits — | |
| As favorite | 6-4 |
| As underdog | 0-1 |
| Home | 4-2 |
| Away | 2-3 |
vs closing line · splits show cover–no cover
Recruiting Classes
avg #34 · 55 blue-chip
■ 5★■ 4★■ 3★143 rated signees
| Class | Natl | Pts | 5★ | 4★ | 3★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | #47 | 213 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| 2025 | #24 | 230 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 2024 | #34 | 214 | 0 | 5 | 11 |
| 2023 | #21 | 235 | 0 | 7 | 8 |
| 2022 | #45 | 194 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| 2021 | #61 | 172 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 2020 | #28 | 216 | 1 | 6 | 3 |
| 2019 | #33 | 211 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 2018 | #25 | 224 | 0 | 4 | 18 |
| 2017 | #28 | 210 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
247Sports composite · class rank vs all FBS
Roster Talent
2026
Portal in 12net -2Out 14
Portal avg stars (in / out)3.0 / 3.2
Notable Portal Moves
| ▲ | Noah McKinney | IOL | 3★ | ← Oklahoma State |
| ▲ | Jaden Craig | QB | 3★ | ← Harvard |
| ▲ | Teon Parks | CB | 3★ | ← Colorado |
| ▲ | Cheta Ofili | EDGE | 3★ | ← Texas Tech |
| ▼ | Josh Hoover | QB | 4★ | → Indiana |
| ▼ | Ka'Morreun Pimpton | TE | 4★ | → — |
| ▼ | Paul Oyewale | EDGE | 3★ | → — |
| ▼ | Jonah Martinez | CB | 3★ | → Southern Miss |
returning PPA · portal · talent composite · 2026
Injury Report · 0
No injuries reported.
Team News
13 items
- 2026 TCU Countdown to Kickoff: 40 Days Until Horned Frog FootballJames McFarland was named Defensive MVP of the 2014 Peach Bowl.TCU15h
- Ranking the Big 12 Stadiums TCU Will Visit in 2026Which Big 12 road trip should Horned Frog fans make in 2026? We rank every stadium on TCU's schedule based on atmosphere, traditions, and game-day experience.TCU1d
- TCU's 2026 Big 12 Schedule is Packed with Season WreckersTCU's path to the Big 12 title runs through Noah Fifita, Avery Johnson, LJ Martin and a loaded group of stars capable of wrecking the Horned Frogs' season fast.TCU5d
- 2026 TCU Football Season Preview: Wide ReceiversJordan Dwyer and Terry Shelton highlight the team’s returning pass catchers.TCU7d
- The 10 Biggest Threats on TCU Football's 2026 ScheduleFrom Noah Fifita and Avery Johnson to LJ Martin and Terrance Carter Jr., these are the 10 returning Big 12 players who pose the biggest threat to TCU's pursuit of a conference championship in 2026.TCU9d
- Sonny Dykes Says TCU's Next Step Starts With Culture, Leadership, and Jaden CraigSonny Dykes says TCU's foundation is rooted in development, leadership and a transfer portal process that helped bring quarterback Jaden Craig to Fort Worth.
- Sonny Dykes says Curt Cignetti's Josh Hoover shade toward TCU was fairCurt Cignetti defended Josh Hoover's turnover issues at TCU by pointing to systemic issues, and Horned Frogs coach Sonny Dykes largely agrees.
- 2026 TCU Football Season Preview: Running BacksJeremy Payne returns to lead the Horned Frog backfield.
- How Davey O'Brien's Legacy Still Shapes TCU Football TodayNearly 90 years after winning the Heisman Trophy, Davey O'Brien remains the most iconic player in TCU football history and the standard for every Horned Frog quarterbackTCU19d
- Football: 2027 3-star DB Rontrae Carter commits to TCUThe Horned Frogs are up to 18 recruits and two safeties in their 2027 class.TCU20d
- Ranking Sonny Dykes' 5 Greatest Wins at TCU So FarWhich Sonny Dykes' victory stands above the rest? We rank the five greatest wins of his TCU tenure, from Michigan to Texas and beyond.TCU21d
- Football: 2027 RB Caris Sela commits to TCUThe Horned Frogs pick up their first running back of the 2027 class.TCU28d
- Football: 2027 3-star LB Linkin Apana commits to TCUThe Horned Frogs pick up their first linebacker of the 2027 class.TCU29d