
Baylor Bears
Big 12
0-0 (0-0 conf)
SP+ #71
Ratings
2025 final
- SP+
- 1.4 (#71)
- SP+ Offense
- 32.8
- SP+ Defense
- 33.3
- SRS
- 0.6
- FPI
- 3.0
- Elo
- 1509
- Talent
- 726
- Recruiting
- 201 (#57)
2026 Outlook
Projected wins
5.8p10 4.0 — p90 8.0
| Round | Prob | |
|---|---|---|
| Win conference | 0.2% | |
| Make CFP | 0.1% | |
| Quarterfinal | 0.0% | |
| Semifinal | 0.0% | |
| Natl. final | 0.0% | |
| Natl. champ | 0.0% |
Schedule
proj record 5.9–6.1
Schedule
31st
toughest of 136
Offenses faced
41st
toughest of 136
Defenses faced
31st
toughest of 136
Strength of schedule — how tough this team's opponents are, ranked 1 (hardest) to 136 (easiest) · by 2025 SP+ · 1 FCS game.
| Wk | Opponent | SP+ | Score | Proj | Win% | Res |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NAuburn | +11.6 | 20-31 | -10.4 | 27% | — |
| 2 | vsPrairie View A&M | FCS | 44-4* | +40.8 | 99% | — |
| 3 | vsLouisiana Tech | -1.3 | 33-21 | +12.3 | 77% | — |
| 4 | vsColorado | -8.3 | 29-21 | +8.5 | 70% | — |
| 5 | @Arizona State | +3.9 | 24-29 | -4.9 | 39% | — |
| 7 | vsTCU | +8.3 | 30-26 | +3.6 | 59% | — |
| 8 | @Kansas | +4.1 | 24-30 | -5.9 | 36% | — |
| 9 | @UCF | -1.2 | 28-25 | +3.7 | 59% | — |
| 10 | vsIowa State | +9.9 | 27-25 | +2.2 | 55% | — |
| 11 | @BYU | +15.9 | 21-33 | -12.6 | 22% | — |
| 12 | vsTexas Tech | +27.6 | 18-38 | -20.1 | 11% | — |
| 13 | @Houston | +7.4 | 23-31 | -7.7 | 32% | — |
* FBS-vs-FCS estimate from the SP+ gap — no per-game model for FCS opponents.
Quarterbacks · 3
2026 · 66
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 1st | Sawyer Robertson | SR | 6'4" | 220 | ★★★★ |
| QB | 2nd | DJ Lagway← Florida | SO | 6'3" | 247 | ★★★★ |
| QB | 3rd | Nate Bennett | FR | 6'1" | 184 | ★★★ |
Running Backs · 3
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 1st | Caden Knighten | FR | 5'11" | 212 | ★★★★ |
| RB | 2nd | Michael Turner | FR | 6'0" | 220 | ★★★★ |
| RB | 3rd | Joseph Hagman | SO | 6'1" | 225 | — |
Wide Receivers · 12
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 1st | Kole Wilson | SR | 5'9" | 171 | — |
| WR | 2nd | Gavin Freeman← Oklahoma State | JR | 5'8" | 185 | ★★★ |
| WR | 3rd | Ashtyn Hawkins | SR | 5'10" | 168 | — |
| WR | 4th | Kobe Prentice | SR | 5'11" | 190 | ★★★★ |
| WR | 5th | Hardley Gilmore IV← Kentucky | SO | 6'1" | 183 | ★★★ |
| WR | 6th | Dre'lon Miller← Colorado | SO | 6'1" | 200 | ★★★ |
| WR | 7th | Jadon Porter | SO | 6'1" | 190 | ★★★ |
| WR | 8th | Louis Brown IV | SR | 6'2" | 192 | — |
| WR | 9th | Taz Williams Jr. | FR | 6'0" | 189 | ★★★ |
| WR | 10th | Jayden McGowan← Charlotte | SR | 5'7" | 180 | ★★★ |
| WR | 11th | Jacorey Watson | FR | 5'10" | 189 | — |
| WR | — | DeBraun Hampton← Florida | FR | 5'10" | 187 | ★★★ |
Tight Ends · 4
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TE | 1st | Michael Trigg | SR | 6'4" | 240 | ★★★★ |
| TE | 2nd | Tony Livingston← Florida | JR | 6'5" | 264 | ★★★ |
| TE | 3rd | Matthew Klopfenstein | JR | 6'4" | 250 | ★★★ |
| TE | 4th | Kelsey Johnson | JR | 6'3" | 248 | — |
Offensive Line · 2
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OT | — | Cole Rhett← Toledo | SO | 6'7" | 301 | ★★★ |
| OT | — | Logan Moore← UAB | SO | 6'8" | 290 | ★★★ |
Defensive Line · 12
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DL | 1st | Cooper Lanz | SR | 6'4" | 286 | — |
| DL | 2nd | Jamaal Whyce Jr.← Marshall | JR | 6'4" | 303 | ★★★ |
| DL | 3rd | Hosea Wheeler← Indiana | SR | 6'3" | 300 | ★★★★ |
| DL | 4th | Devonte Tezino | JR | 6'5" | 294 | — |
| DL | 5th | Kamren Washington← Texas State | JR | 6'2" | 290 | ★★★ |
| DL | 6th | Daemian Wimberly← UTSA | SO | 6'4" | 265 | ★★★ |
| DL | 7th | Jordan Mack← Coastal Carolina | FR | 6'6" | 260 | ★★★ |
| DL | 8th | Adonis Friloux | SR | 6'2" | 346 | — |
| DL | 9th | Trent Thomas | SO | 6'6" | 259 | — |
| DL | — | Zavion Hardy← South Carolina | JR | 6'5" | 290 | ★★★ |
| EDGE | 1st | Garrick Ponder← Southern Miss | JR | 6'2" | 250 | ★★★ |
| EDGE | 2nd | Ryan Davis← Kansas State | SO | 6'4" | 252 | ★★★ |
Linebackers · 7
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LB | 1st | Kedrick Walker← Georgia State | JR | 6'2" | 210 | ★★★ |
| LB | 2nd | Kyland Reed | SO | 6'1" | 218 | — |
| LB | 3rd | Kyler Jordan | JR | 6'2" | 255 | ★★★ |
| LB | 4th | Kaleb Burns | FR | 6'1" | 223 | ★★★★ |
| LB | 5th | Travion Barnes | SR | 6'0" | 243 | — |
| LB | 6th | JJ Shelton← Arkansas | FR | 6'1" | 202 | ★★★ |
| LB | 7th | Ke'Breion Winston | FR | 6'1" | 208 | ★★★ |
Defensive Backs · 20
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CB | 1st | LeVar Thornton Jr. | SO | 6'3" | 182 | ★★★★ |
| CB | 2nd | Tevin Williams III | SR | 6'1" | 199 | ★★★ |
| CB | 3rd | Stilton McKelvey← New Mexico State | JR | 6'0" | 175 | — |
| CB | 4th | Devon Jordan← Oklahoma | SO | 5'11" | 181 | ★★★ |
| CB | 5th | Reggie Bush II | JR | 6'0" | 195 | ★★★ |
| CB | 6th | Jayden Rowe← Kansas State | JR | 6'1" | 227 | ★★★ |
| CB | 7th | Calvin Simpson-Hunt | SO | 6'0" | 215 | ★★★★ |
| CB | 8th | Kyler Beaty | FR | 6'2" | 205 | ★★★ |
| S | 1st | Devyn Bobby | SR | 5'11" | 198 | — |
| S | 2nd | Jacob Redding | SO | 6'1" | 196 | — |
| S | 3rd | Daniel Cobbs← Kansas State | JR | 5'10" | 190 | ★★★ |
| S | 4th | Tyler Turner | SO | 6'0" | 197 | ★★★★ |
| S | 5th | Kendrick Simpkins | SR | 6'0" | 199 | — |
| S | 6th | Micah Gifford | JR | 6'3" | 207 | ★★★ |
| S | 7th | Anthony Crenshaw Jr.← Delaware | JR | 6'0" | 205 | ★★★ |
| S | 8th | Bo Onu | FR | 6'0" | 202 | — |
| S | 9th | Michael Allen | JR | 5'7" | 182 | — |
| S | 10th | Placide Djungu-Sungu | SR | 6'1" | 200 | — |
| S | — | Colby McCalister← Kansas State | JR | 5'10" | 198 | ★★★ |
| S | — | Austin Ausberry← LSU | JR | 6'0" | 195 | ★★★ |
Special Teams · 3
| Pos | Depth | Player | Cl | Ht | Wt | ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LS | 1st | Dylan Schaub | SO | 6'5" | 236 | — |
| P | 1st | Palmer Williams | JR | 6'2" | 203 | ★★★ |
| PK | 1st | Rhett Armstrong | FR | 6'5" | 215 | ★★★ |
Projected Season
2026 · win prob / game
Exp. Wins
5.9
Exp. Losses
6.1
Toss-ups
3
bars: model win probabilityfav / toss-up / dog
2025 · pct vs FBS
SP+ Off
32.877
Off PPA
+0.1965
Pass PPA
+0.2555
Rush PPA
+0.1673
Success
45%71
Explosive
1.2869
PlayerMedian (50th)percentile vs league
Advanced
2025 · opponent-adjusted PPA / play
| Split | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.19 | +0.17 |
| Passing | +0.25 | +0.25 |
| Rushing | +0.16 | +0.14 |
| 1st Down | +0.06 | +0.02 |
| 2nd Down | +0.22 | +0.17 |
| 3rd Down | +0.41 | +0.48 |
Scoring Trend
2025 · pts/game
PPG For
31.1
PPG Against
32.6
Differential
-1.5
— Points for— Points against
dots: W / L2025
- Overall
- 5-7
- Home
- 3-4
- Away
- 2-3
- Conference
- 3-6
- Non-Conference
- 2-1
- One-Score (≤8)
- 2-3
- Avg Margin
- -1.5
Situational Splits
2025 · record · pts
| Split | Record | PF | PA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Venue | |||
| Home | 3-4 | 29.6 | 27.9 |
| Away | 2-3 | 33.2 | 39.2 |
| Competition | |||
| vs Ranked (SP+ 25) | 1-1 | 38.0 | 50.0 |
| Conference | 3-6 | 28.8 | 33.4 |
| Non-conference | 2-1 | 38.0 | 30.0 |
Season History · last 12
2 AP top-10 · 8 postseason
| Season | Record | Conf | SP+ | AP | Post |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5-7 | 3-6 | #71 | — | — |
| 2024 | 8-4 | 6-3 | #38 | — | 0-1 |
| 2023 | 3-9 | 2-7 | #97 | — | — |
| 2022 | 6-6 | 4-5 | #30 | #9 | 0-1 |
| 2021 | 11-2 | 8-2 | #15 | #5 | 1-0 |
| 2020 | 2-7 | 2-7 | #62 | — | — |
| 2019 | 11-2 | 8-2 | #18 | — | 0-1 |
| 2018 | 6-6 | 4-5 | #66 | — | 1-0 |
| 2017 | 1-11 | 1-8 | #75 | — | — |
| 2016 | 6-6 | 3-6 | #32 | — | 1-0 |
| 2015 | 9-3 | 6-3 | #12 | — | 1-0 |
| 2014 | 11-1 | 8-1 | #8 | — | 0-1 |
Recent Form · last 5
1-4 SU · 1-4 ATS · O1/U4
Betting Profile
2025 · 12 w/ line
| Straight up | 5-7 |
| ATS | 2-1017% |
| Over / Under | 6-6 O-U |
| — ATS splits — | |
| As favorite | 1-5 |
| As underdog | 1-5 |
| Home | 1-6 |
| Away | 1-4 |
vs closing line · splits show cover–no cover
Recruiting Classes
avg #43 · 29 blue-chip
■ 5★■ 4★■ 3★121 rated signees
| Class | Natl | Pts | 5★ | 4★ | 3★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | #57 | 201 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| 2025 | #36 | 210 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 2024 | #67 | 179 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 2023 | #35 | 211 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 2022 | #37 | 208 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 2021 | #44 | 190 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 2020 | #54 | 181 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2019 | #35 | 203 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 2018 | #29 | 215 | 0 | 6 | 15 |
| 2017 | #40 | 193 | 0 | 0 | 16 |
247Sports composite · class rank vs all FBS
Roster Talent
2026
Portal in 31net -1Out 32
Portal avg stars (in / out)3.1 / 3.1
Notable Portal Moves
| ▲ | DJ Lagway | QB | 4★ | ← Florida |
| ▲ | Hosea Wheeler | DL | 4★ | ← Indiana |
| ▲ | Garrick Ponder | EDGE | 3★ | ← Southern Miss |
| ▲ | Dre'lon Miller | WR | 3★ | ← Colorado |
| ▼ | Coleton Price | IOL | 4★ | → Kentucky |
| ▼ | Bryson Washington | RB | 4★ | → Auburn |
| ▼ | Kamauryn Morgan | EDGE | 4★ | → Missouri |
| ▼ | Colton Thomasson | OT | 4★ | → UNLV |
returning PPA · portal · talent composite · 2026
Injury Report · 0
No injuries reported.
Team News
20 items
- One Former Five-Star Recruit Who is Finally Ready to Break Out for BaylorAfter a struggling two years, a change of scenery will do him justice.BAY7h
- The Biggest Concern Nobody Is Talking About Regarding BaylorWe know about the concerns in the trenches, but is there another big concern regarding this team?BAY9h
- Building the Ultimate Baylor Football Dream Team: The Best Position Groups in School HistoryCombining Baylor's top position groups from different eras, we built the ultimate Bears football roster.BAY3d
- Ranking Baylor's Top 25 Players in 2026: A Security Blanket for the new QuarterbackWhile there is a lot of focus on the wide receiver position, perhaps a tight end could be the one who builds a rapport with their new quarterback going into 2026.BAY3d
- Ranking The Top RBs Baylor Will Play in 2026 From Easiest to Most DangerousWe look at the most dangerous running backs that this freshly new defense will be facing. Baylor will definitely be tested this year, and here's a list of who I think will be the most dangerous.BAY4d
- Ranking Every Big 12 Football Stadium - Where Does Baylor Land?The Big 12 is known for some of the most beautiful and most asthetic stadiums in college football. Theres are all ranked best to worst, strictly off my opinion.BAY6d
- Brentwood Academy football, Baylor ranked among MaxPreps' preseason top 25Two Tennessee high school football teams, Baylor and Brentwood Academy, feature in MaxPreps' preseason national top 25 rankings.BAY6d
- Every QB Baylor Will Face This Season, Ranked From Strongest to WeakestWho is Baylor's biggest challenge this year at quarterback? Let's take a look.BAY7d
- Baylor adds CB Micah Fleming to 2027 classAlabaster (Ala.) Thompson three-star cornerback Micah Fleming announced on Monday afternoon that he has committed to Baylor. He chose the Bears over offers from Stanford, Georgia, Maryland, Indiana, Duke and others. Fleming is the No. 136 corner and No. 54 player in Alabama in the 2027 cycle, according to the Rivals Industry Ranking, a weighted average […]BAY7d
- Where Baylor Lands in ESPN's Latest Football Power Index RankingsThe Disney conglomerate sees the Bears in the thick of the Big 12 raceBAY8d
- Baylor Football Projected for Historic Bowl Matchup Against This Big Ten Foe in 2026These two programs have never faced one another and it would create must-see TV.BAY9d
- Top 25 Most Important Baylor Players in 2026: Kyland Reed Takes on a Much Larger RoleLinebacker Kyland Reed is expected to lead a linebacker room that lost one of their best players.
- Top 25 Most Important Baylor Players in 2026: Big Season for a Big Man, Isaiah RobinsonIsaiah Robinson is a big man, and was a big recruit for Dave Aranda's Baylor Bears. Now, he needs to deliver on the promise that came with him out of high school to Waco.BAY10d
- If Baylor Football Has Another Losing Season in 2026, Here's What Went WrongHow 2026 could end with Dave Aranda definitely on the hot seatBAY11d
- TCU's Secondary Faces Major Test if Baylor's Passing Game Takes OffDJ Lagway believes Baylor's passing game is ready to break out in 2026. Here's why TCU's secondary could determine the outcome of the rivalry game.BAY11d
- Ranking Baylor's Defensive Positions From Deepest to Weakest Ahead of 2026 SeasonWith almost a full reset on defense, having brought over 15 new defensive players spread out amongst all positions. We look at which positions have the most depth and which positions will mainly rely on just one or two players.BAY11d
- These RBs Could Destroy Baylor in 2026 if Bears Don't Fix 122nd-Ranked Rushing DefenseThe Bears struggled severely last year at stopping the run, and with the more difficult schedule Baylor has, this defense needs to step up, or these running backs will give them a repeat of what we saw last year.BAY11d
- Ranking Every Big 12 Football Helmet - Where Does Baylor Land?The Big 12 has some of the best helmets and jerseys in the NCAA. Here's a little ranking of my favorite helmets from the Big 12 conference.BAY12d
- Baylor's Dave Aranda Reflects on 2025 Roster Mistakes, Paves Way for New BlueprintDave Aranda has turned a new leaf when it comes to roster building.BAY13d
- What Questions Should Baylor HC Dave Aranda Answer at Big 12 Media Days?When Dave Aranda is in front of a microphone at Big 12 media days, there should be plenty of questions about his quarterback, but what else is a pressing issue?BAY13d