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Player Props

2026 · week 1
Our model's chance each player clears a number, if he plays — not a market price, and no claim to beat one. Tested on 1.8M unseen player-games (2018-2025); no band off by more than 5 points. ≈base = barely better than knowing the player's volume.
Week123456789101112131415
Stat
PosTeamSort
2,695 props
showing 100 · click a column to sort
#PlayerPosTmGameStatProj ↓ChanceBook
1Joey AguilarQBTENNvs FUR9/5pass yds≈base271.9
250+
51%
275+
40%
300+
30%
325+
22%
2Josh HooverQBTCUvs UNC8/29pass yds≈base270.1
250+
51%
275+
40%
300+
30%
325+
22%
3Jayden MaiavaQBUSCvs SJSU8/29pass yds≈base250.7
225+
60%
250+
51%
275+
40%
300+
30%
4Jayden MaiavaQBUSCvs FRES9/5pass yds≈base250.7
225+
60%
250+
51%
275+
40%
300+
30%
5Jalen KitnaQBUAB@ ILL9/4pass yds≈base250
225+
60%
250+
51%
275+
40%
300+
30%
6Trinidad ChamblissQBMISSvs LOU9/6pass yds≈base249.9
225+
60%
250+
51%
275+
40%
300+
30%
7Julian SayinQBOSUvs BALL9/5pass yds≈base249.7
225+
60%
250+
51%
275+
40%
300+
30%
8Caden VeltkampQBFAU@ FLA9/5pass yds≈base248.5
225+
60%
250+
51%
275+
40%
300+
30%
9Drew MestemakerQBUNT@ IU9/5pass yds≈base243.9
225+
60%
250+
51%
275+
40%
300+
30%
10Kevin JenningsQBSMU@ FSU9/7pass yds≈base239.5
225+
59%
250+
49%
275+
38%
300+
29%
11Jaron-Keawe SagapoluteleQBCALvs UCLA9/6pass yds≈base235.5
200+
66%
225+
57%
250+
47%
275+
37%
12Micah AlejadoQBHAW@ STAN8/29pass yds≈base235.1
200+
66%
225+
57%
250+
47%
275+
37%
13Micah AlejadoQBHAWvs UNLV9/6pass yds≈base235.1
200+
66%
225+
57%
250+
47%
275+
37%
14Darian MensahQBDUKEvs TULN9/5pass yds≈base233.2
200+
65%
225+
56%
250+
46%
275+
36%
15Brad JacksonQBTXST@ TEX9/5pass yds≈base232
200+
65%
225+
56%
250+
46%
275+
36%
16Malik WashingtonQBMDvs HAMP9/6pass yds≈base231.7
200+
65%
225+
55%
250+
46%
275+
36%
17Owen McCownQBUTSAvs RGV9/5pass yds≈base231.5
200+
65%
225+
55%
250+
46%
275+
36%
18Marcel ReedQBTA&Mvs MOST9/5pass yds≈base226.2
200+
63%
225+
53%
250+
43%
275+
34%
19CJ CarrQBNDvs WIS9/6pass yds≈base223.7
200+
62%
225+
52%
250+
42%
275+
33%
20Jaylen RaynorQBARST@ MEM9/5pass yds≈base223.6
200+
62%
225+
52%
250+
42%
275+
33%
21Brendan SorsbyQBCINvs BC9/5pass yds≈base223.5
200+
62%
225+
52%
250+
42%
275+
33%
22Noah FifitaQBARIZvs NAU9/6pass yds≈base222.8
200+
61%
225+
52%
250+
42%
275+
33%
23Nick MinicucciQBDELvs MRMK9/3pass yds≈base222.7
200+
61%
225+
52%
250+
42%
275+
33%
24John MateerQBOUvs UTEP9/5pass yds≈base221.7
200+
61%
225+
51%
250+
41%
275+
33%
25CJ BaileyQBNCSU@ UVA8/29pass yds≈base221.5
200+
61%
225+
51%
250+
41%
275+
32%
26Bear BachmeierQBBYUvs UTU9/6pass yds≈base221.1
200+
61%
225+
51%
250+
41%
275+
32%
27Arch ManningQBTEXvs TXST9/5pass yds≈base220.2
200+
60%
225+
51%
250+
41%
275+
32%
28Dante MooreQBOREvs BOIS9/5pass yds≈base219.2
200+
60%
225+
50%
250+
40%
275+
32%
29Anthony ColandreaQBUNLVvs MEM8/30pass yds≈base219.1
200+
60%
225+
50%
250+
40%
275+
32%
30Anthony ColandreaQBUNLV@ HAW9/6pass yds≈base219.1
200+
60%
225+
50%
250+
40%
275+
32%
31Jake RetzlaffQBTULN@ DUKE9/5pass yds≈base217.6
200+
59%
225+
50%
250+
40%
275+
31%
32Steve AngeliQBSYRvs UNH9/5pass yds≈base212.1
175+
66%
200+
57%
225+
48%
250+
38%
33Bryce UnderwoodQBMICHvs WMU9/5pass yds≈base210.5
175+
66%
200+
57%
225+
47%
250+
37%
34Maddux MadsenQBBOIS@ ORE9/5pass yds≈base208.1
175+
65%
200+
56%
225+
46%
250+
36%
35Devon DampierQBUTAHvs IDHO9/4pass yds≈base207.3
175+
64%
200+
55%
225+
46%
250+
36%
36Dylan RaiolaQBNEBvs OHIO9/5pass yds≈base206.6
175+
64%
200+
55%
225+
45%
250+
35%
37Sam LeavittQBASUvs MORG9/6pass yds≈base206.4
175+
64%
200+
55%
225+
45%
250+
35%
38Maalik MurphyQBORST@ HOU9/5pass yds≈base205.3
175+
63%
200+
54%
225+
45%
250+
35%
39Gunner StocktonQBUGAvs TNST9/5pass yds≈base205.1
175+
63%
200+
54%
225+
45%
250+
35%
40Colton JosephQBODUvs NORF9/5pass yds≈base203.5
175+
63%
200+
53%
225+
44%
250+
34%
41Conner WeigmanQBHOUvs ORST9/5pass yds≈base203.1
175+
63%
200+
53%
225+
44%
250+
34%
42Jack LayneQBUNMvs CMU9/6pass yds≈base202.4
175+
62%
200+
53%
225+
43%
250+
34%
43Rocco BechtQBISUvs SEMO9/5pass yds≈base202.2
175+
62%
200+
53%
225+
43%
250+
34%
44Demond Williams Jr.QBWASHvs WSU9/6pass yds≈base201.4
175+
62%
200+
52%
225+
43%
250+
34%
45Brayden Fowler-NicolosiQBCSUvs WYO9/5pass yds≈base198.8
175+
61%
200+
51%
225+
42%
250+
33%
46Drake LindseyQBMINNvs EIU9/4pass yds≈base198.2
175+
61%
200+
51%
225+
42%
250+
32%
47Baylor HayesQBTLSAvs OKST9/5pass yds≈base198
175+
60%
200+
51%
225+
42%
250+
32%
48LaNorris SellersQBSCvs KENT9/5pass yds≈base197.1
175+
60%
200+
50%
225+
41%
250+
32%
49Avery JohnsonQBKSUvs NICH9/5pass yds≈base196.9
175+
60%
200+
50%
225+
41%
250+
32%
50Nico IamaleavaQBUCLA@ CAL9/6pass yds≈base195.1
175+
59%
200+
50%
225+
40%
250+
31%
51Aidan ChilesQBMSUvs TOL9/5pass yds≈base193.6
175+
59%
200+
49%
225+
40%
250+
31%
52Dylan LonerganQBBC@ CIN9/5pass yds≈base193.3
175+
58%
200+
49%
225+
40%
250+
31%
53Eli HolsteinQBPITTvs M-OH9/5pass yds≈base192.4
175+
58%
200+
48%
225+
39%
250+
30%
54JC French IVQBGASOvs CHSO9/5pass yds≈base191.1
175+
57%
200+
48%
225+
39%
250+
30%
55Ethan VaskoQBLIB@ JMU9/5pass yds≈base190.7
175+
57%
200+
47%
225+
39%
250+
30%
56Alonza Barnett IIIQBJMUvs LIB9/5pass yds≈base190.1
175+
57%
200+
47%
225+
38%
250+
30%
57DJ LagwayQBFLAvs FAU9/5pass yds≈base188.6
175+
56%
200+
47%
225+
38%
250+
29%
58Jaxon PotterQBWSU@ WASH9/6pass yds≈base187.9
175+
56%
200+
46%
225+
38%
250+
29%
59JJ KohlQBAPPvs ME9/5pass yds≈base187.5
150+
64%
175+
56%
200+
46%
225+
37%
60Amari OdomQBKENNvs WGA9/3pass yds≈base184.3
150+
62%
175+
54%
200+
45%
225+
36%
61Rodney Tisdale Jr.QBWKU@ NEV9/6pass yds≈base183.8
150+
62%
175+
54%
200+
44%
225+
36%
62Keyone JenkinsQBFIU@ USF9/5pass yds≈base182.7
150+
61%
175+
53%
200+
44%
225+
36%
63Carlos Del Rio-WilsonQBMRSH@ PSU9/5pass yds≈base180.1
150+
60%
175+
52%
200+
43%
225+
35%
64Dru DeShieldsQBKENT@ SC9/5pass yds≈base179.6
150+
60%
175+
52%
200+
43%
225+
34%
65Tayven JacksonQBUCFvs BCU9/3pass yds≈base179.3
150+
59%
175+
52%
200+
42%
225+
34%
66Cutter BoleyQBUKvs YSU9/5pass yds≈base176.8
150+
58%
175+
50%
200+
41%
225+
33%
67Gio LopezQBUNC@ TCU8/29pass yds≈base172
150+
55%
175+
48%
200+
39%
225+
31%
68Blake BakerQBLTvs NWST9/5pass yds≈base172
150+
55%
175+
48%
200+
39%
225+
31%
69Zane FloresQBOKST@ TLSA9/5pass yds≈base171.6
150+
55%
175+
47%
200+
39%
225+
31%
70Keelon RussellQBALAvs ECU9/5pass yds≈base170.3
150+
54%
175+
46%
200+
38%
225+
30%
71Goose CrowderQBTROYvs SHSU9/5pass yds≈base170.3
150+
54%
175+
46%
200+
38%
225+
30%
72Luke McNultyQBCLTvs CIT9/5pass yds≈base169.6
150+
54%
175+
46%
200+
37%
225+
30%
73Blake HorvathQBNAVYvs TOW9/5pass yds≈base167.9
150+
52%
175+
45%
200+
37%
225+
29%
74Julian LewisQBCOLO@ GT9/4pass yds≈base167.5
150+
52%
175+
45%
200+
36%
225+
29%
75Jackson ProctorQBNIU@ IOWA9/5pass yds≈base165.9
150+
51%
175+
44%
200+
35%
225+
28%
76Liam SzarkaQBAFvs DUQ9/5pass yds≈base165.2
150+
51%
175+
43%
200+
35%
225+
28%
77Jackson ArnoldQBAUBvs BAY9/5pass yds≈base165.1
150+
50%
175+
43%
200+
35%
225+
28%
78Beau PribulaQBMIZvs UAPB9/4pass yds≈base164.3
150+
50%
175+
43%
200+
35%
225+
27%
79Roman GaglianoQBMTSUvs MUR9/5pass yds≈base163.6
150+
49%
175+
42%
200+
34%
225+
27%
80Jayden DenegalQBSDSUvs PRST9/6pass yds≈base162
125+
56%
150+
48%
175+
41%
200+
33%
81Michael Van Buren Jr.QBLSUvs CLEM9/5pass yds≈base161.4
125+
56%
150+
48%
175+
41%
200+
33%
82Bishop DavenportQBUSAvs SELA9/5pass yds≈base160.2
125+
55%
150+
47%
175+
40%
200+
32%
83Carson ConklinQBFRES@ USC9/5pass yds≈base159.9
125+
55%
150+
47%
175+
40%
200+
32%
84Ryan BrowneQBPURvs INST9/4pass yds≈base157.4
125+
53%
150+
45%
175+
38%
200+
31%
85Aidan LefflerQBBALL@ OSU9/5pass yds≈base155.4
125+
51%
150+
44%
175+
37%
200+
30%
86Scotty Fox Jr.QBWVUvs CCU9/5pass yds≈base155.3
125+
51%
150+
44%
175+
37%
200+
30%
87Kaden MartiranoQBNEVvs WKU9/6pass yds≈base153.7
125+
50%
150+
43%
175+
36%
200+
29%
88Baron MayQBBGSUvs TAR9/5pass yds≈base151.6
125+
48%
150+
41%
175+
34%
200+
28%
89Thomas GotkowskiQBM-OH@ PITT9/5pass yds≈base149.8
140+
43%
150+
40%
160+
38%
170+
35%
90Skyler LocklearQBUTEP@ OU9/5pass yds≈base148.9
140+
42%
150+
39%
160+
37%
170+
34%
91KJ JacksonQBARKvs UNA9/5pass yds≈base147.6
140+
41%
150+
39%
160+
36%
170+
34%
92Aidan ArmentaQBULM@ MSST9/5pass yds≈base146.3
140+
40%
150+
38%
160+
35%
170+
33%
93Parker AwadQBNMSU@ FSU8/29pass yds≈base143.7
130+
40%
140+
38%
150+
36%
160+
34%
94Parker AwadQBNMSUvs MERC9/6pass yds≈base143.7
130+
40%
140+
38%
150+
36%
160+
34%
95Bekkem KritzaQBPSUvs MRSH9/5pass yds≈base143.2
130+
40%
140+
38%
150+
36%
160+
33%
96Danny O'NeilQBWIS@ ND9/6pass yds≈base142.8
130+
40%
140+
38%
150+
36%
160+
33%
97Deyon BatisteQBWYO@ CSU9/5pass yds≈base141.6
130+
39%
140+
37%
150+
35%
160+
32%
98AJ SuraceQBRUTGvs MASS9/3pass yds≈base139.7
130+
38%
140+
36%
150+
34%
160+
31%
99Cardell WilliamsQBSAC@ EMU8/29pass yds≈base139.5
130+
38%
140+
36%
150+
34%
160+
31%
100Cardell WilliamsQBSACvs MVSU9/6pass yds≈base139.5
130+
38%
140+
36%
150+
34%
160+
31%
100 of 2,695
Informational only — our own model's probabilities, not betting advice and no guarantee of outcome. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.