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Player Props

2026 · week 12
Our model's chance each player clears a number, if he plays — not a market price, and no claim to beat one. Tested on 1.8M unseen player-games (2018-2025); no band off by more than 5 points. ≈base = barely better than knowing the player's volume.
Week123456789101112131415
Stat
PosTeamSort
2,443 props
showing 100 · click a column to sort
#PlayerPosTmGameStatProj ↓ChanceBook
1Joey AguilarQBTENNvs LSU11/21pass yds≈base271.9
250+
51%
275+
40%
300+
30%
325+
22%
2Josh HooverQBTCUvs UTAH11/21pass yds≈base270.1
250+
51%
275+
40%
300+
30%
325+
22%
3Jayden MaiavaQBUSCvs MD11/21pass yds≈base250.7
225+
60%
250+
51%
275+
40%
300+
30%
4Jalen KitnaQBUABvs UTSA11/21pass yds≈base250
225+
60%
250+
51%
275+
40%
300+
30%
5Trinidad ChamblissQBMISSvs WOF11/21pass yds≈base249.9
225+
60%
250+
51%
275+
40%
300+
30%
6Julian SayinQBOSU@ NEB11/21pass yds≈base249.7
225+
60%
250+
51%
275+
40%
300+
30%
7Caden VeltkampQBFAUvs USF11/21pass yds≈base248.5
225+
60%
250+
51%
275+
40%
300+
30%
8Drew MestemakerQBUNT@ TULN11/21pass yds≈base243.9
225+
60%
250+
51%
275+
40%
300+
30%
9Kevin JenningsQBSMU@ ND11/22pass yds≈base239.5
225+
59%
250+
49%
275+
38%
300+
29%
10Jaron-Keawe SagapoluteleQBCALvs STAN11/21pass yds≈base235.5
200+
66%
225+
57%
250+
47%
275+
37%
11Micah AlejadoQBHAW@ NEV11/21pass yds≈base235.1
200+
66%
225+
57%
250+
47%
275+
37%
12Darian MensahQBDUKEvs CLEM11/21pass yds≈base233.2
200+
65%
225+
56%
250+
46%
275+
36%
13Brad JacksonQBTXSTvs WSU11/21pass yds≈base232
200+
65%
225+
56%
250+
46%
275+
36%
14Malik WashingtonQBMD@ USC11/21pass yds≈base231.7
200+
65%
225+
55%
250+
46%
275+
36%
15Owen McCownQBUTSA@ UAB11/21pass yds≈base231.5
200+
65%
225+
55%
250+
46%
275+
36%
16Marcel ReedQBTA&M@ OU11/21pass yds≈base226.2
200+
63%
225+
53%
250+
43%
275+
34%
17CJ CarrQBNDvs SMU11/22pass yds≈base223.7
200+
62%
225+
52%
250+
42%
275+
33%
18Jaylen RaynorQBARST@ LT11/19pass yds≈base223.6
200+
62%
225+
52%
250+
42%
275+
33%
19Brendan SorsbyQBCINvs COLO11/21pass yds≈base223.5
200+
62%
225+
52%
250+
42%
275+
33%
20Noah FifitaQBARIZ@ KSU11/21pass yds≈base222.8
200+
61%
225+
52%
250+
42%
275+
33%
21Nick MinicucciQBDEL@ NMSU11/21pass yds≈base222.7
200+
61%
225+
52%
250+
42%
275+
33%
22John MateerQBOUvs TA&M11/21pass yds≈base221.7
200+
61%
225+
51%
250+
41%
275+
33%
23CJ BaileyQBNCSU@ FSU11/21pass yds≈base221.5
200+
61%
225+
51%
250+
41%
275+
32%
24Bear BachmeierQBBYU@ KU11/21pass yds≈base221.1
200+
61%
225+
51%
250+
41%
275+
32%
25Arch ManningQBTEXvs ARK11/21pass yds≈base220.2
200+
60%
225+
51%
250+
41%
275+
32%
26Dante MooreQBORE@ MSU11/21pass yds≈base219.2
200+
60%
225+
50%
250+
40%
275+
32%
27Anthony ColandreaQBUNLV@ SJSU11/22pass yds≈base219.1
200+
60%
225+
50%
250+
40%
275+
32%
28Jake RetzlaffQBTULNvs UNT11/21pass yds≈base217.6
200+
59%
225+
50%
250+
40%
275+
31%
29Steve AngeliQBSYR@ BC11/21pass yds≈base212.1
175+
66%
200+
57%
225+
48%
250+
38%
30Bryce UnderwoodQBMICHvs UCLA11/21pass yds≈base210.5
175+
66%
200+
57%
225+
47%
250+
37%
31Maddux MadsenQBBOISvs SDSU11/22pass yds≈base208.1
175+
65%
200+
56%
225+
46%
250+
36%
32Devon DampierQBUTAH@ TCU11/21pass yds≈base207.3
175+
64%
200+
55%
225+
46%
250+
36%
33Dylan RaiolaQBNEBvs OSU11/21pass yds≈base206.6
175+
64%
200+
55%
225+
45%
250+
35%
34Sam LeavittQBASUvs OKST11/21pass yds≈base206.4
175+
64%
200+
55%
225+
45%
250+
35%
35Maalik MurphyQBORSTvs USU11/22pass yds≈base205.3
175+
63%
200+
54%
225+
45%
250+
35%
36Gunner StocktonQBUGA@ SC11/21pass yds≈base205.1
175+
63%
200+
54%
225+
45%
250+
35%
37Colton JosephQBODU@ CONN11/21pass yds≈base203.5
175+
63%
200+
53%
225+
44%
250+
34%
38Conner WeigmanQBHOU@ WVU11/21pass yds≈base203.1
175+
63%
200+
53%
225+
44%
250+
34%
39Jack LayneQBUNM@ WYO11/22pass yds≈base202.4
175+
62%
200+
53%
225+
43%
250+
34%
40Rocco BechtQBISU@ UCF11/20pass yds≈base202.2
175+
62%
200+
53%
225+
43%
250+
34%
41Demond Williams Jr.QBWASHvs IU11/21pass yds≈base201.4
175+
62%
200+
52%
225+
43%
250+
34%
42Brayden Fowler-NicolosiQBCSU@ FRES11/22pass yds≈base198.8
175+
61%
200+
51%
225+
42%
250+
33%
43Drake LindseyQBMINNvs NU11/21pass yds≈base198.2
175+
61%
200+
51%
225+
42%
250+
32%
44Baylor HayesQBTLSAvs CLT11/21pass yds≈base198
175+
60%
200+
51%
225+
42%
250+
32%
45LaNorris SellersQBSCvs UGA11/21pass yds≈base197.1
175+
60%
200+
50%
225+
41%
250+
32%
46Avery JohnsonQBKSUvs ARIZ11/21pass yds≈base196.9
175+
60%
200+
50%
225+
41%
250+
32%
47Nico IamaleavaQBUCLA@ MICH11/21pass yds≈base195.1
175+
59%
200+
50%
225+
40%
250+
31%
48Aidan ChilesQBMSUvs ORE11/21pass yds≈base193.6
175+
59%
200+
49%
225+
40%
250+
31%
49Dylan LonerganQBBCvs SYR11/21pass yds≈base193.3
175+
58%
200+
49%
225+
40%
250+
31%
50Eli HolsteinQBPITT@ LOU11/21pass yds≈base192.4
175+
58%
200+
48%
225+
39%
250+
30%
51JC French IVQBGASO@ TROY11/21pass yds≈base191.1
175+
57%
200+
48%
225+
39%
250+
30%
52Ethan VaskoQBLIBvs WKU11/21pass yds≈base190.7
175+
57%
200+
47%
225+
39%
250+
30%
53DJ LagwayQBFLAvs VAN11/21pass yds≈base188.6
175+
56%
200+
47%
225+
38%
250+
29%
54Jaxon PotterQBWSU@ TXST11/21pass yds≈base187.9
175+
56%
200+
46%
225+
38%
250+
29%
55JJ KohlQBAPPvs ULM11/21pass yds≈base187.5
150+
64%
175+
56%
200+
46%
225+
37%
56Amari OdomQBKENNvs FIU11/21pass yds≈base184.3
150+
62%
175+
54%
200+
45%
225+
36%
57Rodney Tisdale Jr.QBWKU@ LIB11/21pass yds≈base183.8
150+
62%
175+
54%
200+
44%
225+
36%
58Keyone JenkinsQBFIU@ KENN11/21pass yds≈base182.7
150+
61%
175+
53%
200+
44%
225+
36%
59Carlos Del Rio-WilsonQBMRSHvs GAST11/21pass yds≈base180.1
150+
60%
175+
52%
200+
43%
225+
35%
60Dru DeShieldsQBKENTvs M-OH11/17pass yds≈base179.6
150+
60%
175+
52%
200+
43%
225+
34%
61Tayven JacksonQBUCFvs ISU11/20pass yds≈base179.3
150+
59%
175+
52%
200+
42%
225+
34%
62Cutter BoleyQBUK@ MIZ11/21pass yds≈base176.8
150+
58%
175+
50%
200+
41%
225+
33%
63Blake BakerQBLTvs ARST11/19pass yds≈base172
150+
55%
175+
48%
200+
39%
225+
31%
64Gio LopezQBUNC@ UVA11/21pass yds≈base172
150+
55%
175+
48%
200+
39%
225+
31%
65Zane FloresQBOKST@ ASU11/21pass yds≈base171.6
150+
55%
175+
47%
200+
39%
225+
31%
66Goose CrowderQBTROYvs GASO11/21pass yds≈base170.3
150+
54%
175+
46%
200+
38%
225+
30%
67Keelon RussellQBALAvs UTC11/21pass yds≈base170.3
150+
54%
175+
46%
200+
38%
225+
30%
68Luke McNultyQBCLT@ TLSA11/21pass yds≈base169.6
150+
54%
175+
46%
200+
37%
225+
30%
69Blake HorvathQBNAVYvs MEM11/21pass yds≈base167.9
150+
52%
175+
45%
200+
37%
225+
29%
70Julian LewisQBCOLO@ CIN11/21pass yds≈base167.5
150+
52%
175+
45%
200+
36%
225+
29%
71Jackson ProctorQBNIU@ NDSU11/21pass yds≈base165.9
150+
51%
175+
44%
200+
35%
225+
28%
72Liam SzarkaQBAFvs UTEP11/21pass yds≈base165.2
150+
51%
175+
43%
200+
35%
225+
28%
73Jackson ArnoldQBAUBvs SAM11/21pass yds≈base165.1
150+
50%
175+
43%
200+
35%
225+
28%
74Beau PribulaQBMIZvs UK11/21pass yds≈base164.3
150+
50%
175+
43%
200+
35%
225+
27%
75Roman GaglianoQBMTSU@ SHSU11/21pass yds≈base163.6
150+
49%
175+
42%
200+
34%
225+
27%
76Jayden DenegalQBSDSU@ BOIS11/22pass yds≈base162
125+
56%
150+
48%
175+
41%
200+
33%
77Michael Van Buren Jr.QBLSU@ TENN11/21pass yds≈base161.4
125+
56%
150+
48%
175+
41%
200+
33%
78Bishop DavenportQBUSA@ USM11/21pass yds≈base160.2
125+
55%
150+
47%
175+
40%
200+
32%
79Carson ConklinQBFRESvs CSU11/22pass yds≈base159.9
125+
55%
150+
47%
175+
40%
200+
32%
80Ryan BrowneQBPURvs WIS11/21pass yds≈base157.4
125+
53%
150+
45%
175+
38%
200+
31%
81Aidan LefflerQBBALL@ OHIO11/17pass yds≈base155.4
125+
51%
150+
44%
175+
37%
200+
30%
82Scotty Fox Jr.QBWVUvs HOU11/21pass yds≈base155.3
125+
51%
150+
44%
175+
37%
200+
30%
83Kaden MartiranoQBNEVvs HAW11/21pass yds≈base153.7
125+
50%
150+
43%
175+
36%
200+
29%
84Baron MayQBBGSU@ TOL11/21pass yds≈base151.6
125+
48%
150+
41%
175+
34%
200+
28%
85Thomas GotkowskiQBM-OH@ KENT11/17pass yds≈base149.8
140+
43%
150+
40%
160+
38%
170+
35%
86Skyler LocklearQBUTEP@ AF11/21pass yds≈base148.9
140+
42%
150+
39%
160+
37%
170+
34%
87KJ JacksonQBARK@ TEX11/21pass yds≈base147.6
140+
41%
150+
39%
160+
36%
170+
34%
88Aidan ArmentaQBULM@ APP11/21pass yds≈base146.3
140+
40%
150+
38%
160+
35%
170+
33%
89Parker AwadQBNMSUvs DEL11/21pass yds≈base143.7
130+
40%
140+
38%
150+
36%
160+
34%
90Bekkem KritzaQBPSUvs RUTG11/21pass yds≈base143.2
130+
40%
140+
38%
150+
36%
160+
33%
91Danny O'NeilQBWIS@ PUR11/21pass yds≈base142.8
130+
40%
140+
38%
150+
36%
160+
33%
92Deyon BatisteQBWYOvs UNM11/22pass yds≈base141.6
130+
39%
140+
37%
150+
35%
160+
32%
93AJ SuraceQBRUTG@ PSU11/21pass yds≈base139.7
130+
38%
140+
36%
150+
34%
160+
31%
94Cameran BrownQBGAST@ MRSH11/21pass yds≈base138.4
130+
37%
140+
35%
150+
33%
160+
30%
95Lunch WinfieldQBULvs CCU11/21pass yds≈base137.3
130+
37%
140+
35%
150+
33%
160+
30%
96Deuce BaileyQBMOST@ JXST11/21pass yds≈base137.1
130+
37%
140+
35%
150+
33%
160+
30%
97Brian PlummerQBBUFvs CMU11/18pass yds≈base136.8
130+
37%
140+
35%
150+
33%
160+
30%
98Nick DemchukQBAKR@ MASS11/18pass yds≈base136.5
130+
37%
140+
35%
150+
33%
160+
30%
99Trent PearmanQBCLEM@ DUKE11/21pass yds≈base135.6
130+
37%
140+
35%
150+
33%
160+
30%
100Will HammondQBTTU@ BAY11/21pass yds≈base134.1
120+
39%
130+
36%
140+
34%
150+
32%
100 of 2,443
Informational only — our own model's probabilities, not betting advice and no guarantee of outcome. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.